Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
505 FXUS65 KVEF 060823 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 123 AM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue throughout the week as a high-pressure ridge remains over the southwest. Temperatures will be near or exceed 100 degrees today and tomorrow in many lower elevation areas, but readings should gradually diminish as the week progresses and the ridge weakens. A more pronounced cooling trend is possible by next weekend as a trough of low pressure approaches the west coast. && .SHORT TERM...Today and Monday. Little change in the forecast is expected today as the ridge of high pressure remains firmly in place across the southwest. Temperatures are expected to reach the century mark once again at Harry Reid airport today, which not only would break the daily record of 98 degrees but would also extend the record for the latest 100-degree day and the record for the number of 100-degree- plus days in a calendar year. On Monday, a short wave trough will approach the Great Basin, allowing 500MB heights to fall slightly. This should translate to high temperatures being a degree to two cooler, which is also shown in the NBM probabilities with only a 10 percent chance of temperatures of 100 degrees or greater at KLAS. This approaching shortwave may also cause a few isolated areas of virga over the Sierra this afternoon and evening, as well as isolated showers over the Sierra and White Mountains in northern Inyo and Esmeralda counties Monday afternoon and evening. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Sunday By Tuesday the upper-level shortwave trough will have begun to move inland near the California-Mexico Border. As this disturbance passes by to our south, another shortwave trough will zip through the Pacific Northwest, contributing to the deamplification of the upper- level ridge and helping displace it to the east. While this will help to take the edge off the heat, it won`t be enough to get us in the neighborhood of normal temperatures for early October. Forecast confidence decreases as we head into the weekend due to uncertainty regarding an incoming trough. Right now ensembles show some flavor of a trough moving impacting the Western US over the weekend. However, there remain major discrepancies regarding when the trough will move through, how fast it will move through the area, and how strong it will be. All of these factors will play a role in how much we cool down and how long these cooler temperatures will stick around. Current guidance has temperatures getting within a few degrees of normal over the weekend. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light winds will continue through the morning before turning to the northeast by 17Z. Winds will remain from the east through the afternoon before turning to the southwest after sunset. Sustained wind speeds are expected to remain less than 8 knots through the TAF period, and there is only a 20% chance of seeing a random gust to 15 knots during the afternoon (20Z to 01Z). VFR conditions can be expected throughout the period, with only a FEW to SCT clouds around 15kft AGL expected during the afternoon and evening. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Winds will be light and diurnal at most regional TAF sites today, with speeds generally remaining 10 knots or less. The Colorado River Valley sites will be the exception, where northerly winds with gusts to 20kts are expected during the late morning and early afternoon (16Z to 21Z). Isolated areas of virga or showers are also possible over the Sierra and White Mountains in northern Inyo County this afternoon and early evening, and these will be capable of producing localized gusty winds that may impact KBIH. Otherwise, VFR conditions can be expected throughout the period, with only a FEW to SCT clouds around 15kft AGL expected during the afternoon and evening, mainly along the Sierra and across southern Nevada. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Planz LONG TERM...Stessman AVIATION...Planz For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter