


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
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839 FXUS65 KVEF 032150 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 250 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Scattered thunderstorms will persist through the early evening before dry conditions return by Friday. * Dry and breezy conditions will lead to elevated fire danger on Friday. * Warming trend expected next week with major heat risk returning by midweek. && .DISCUSSION...The rest of today through Thursday. Through the early afternoon, convection has developed in portions of southern Nevada as an upper level trough lifts into southwest Utah. So far, most of the thunderstorm activity has been terrain based as the center of the low moves overhead. This should continue through the afternoon with some of the storms blowing off the terrain into nearby valleys, but in general activity will be more isolated than the past few days. With decent CAPE and dry air intruding in behind the existing systems, so sudden gusty winds are possible with any storms. PWATs have decreased from the other day but continue to be elevated, especially in Mohave County, which could lead to heavy rain at times and isolated flash flooding. Thunderstorm activity will quickly diminish late this afternoon and evening as the trough lifts out. Another shortwave will zip through northern Nevada on Friday behind the exiting trough. This will bring in additional dry air and no precipitation is expected Friday through next week. As the piece of energy moves through, a strengthening pressure gradient will result in increasing south to southwest winds across the region. Widespread gusts of 20-30MPH will develop Friday afternoon. While the probability for hitting 40 MPH is moderate to high (60%-80%) in the Western Mojave Desert into the Death Valley area, gusts should only briefly touch 40 MPH and thus impacts would be limited. With dry conditions and breezy winds, elevated to high fire danger is expected on Friday. For additional information on fire weather conditions and fire danger, please see the FIRE WEATHER section. After temps hover slightly below or near seasonal normals through the weekend, a ridge will build over the interior West next week. While there is some uncertainty in exactly where the high will set up and how strong it will build, warming trend and above normal temperatures are likely. Widespread major heat risk advertised by Wednesday and Thursday. This looks to translate to 110+ high temperatures across much of the Mojave Desert including Las Vegas, and 120+ within the lower reaches of Death Valley. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Isolated convection will linger in and around the valley through the early evening, though most of the activity should should decrease and move away from the terminals after 00Z. Beyond 00z, lingering showers and storms should diminish and/or move east of the terminal, and after precipitation ends this evening then a dry forecast is expected. Light and diurnal winds will return for tonight. On Friday, south to southwest winds will increase late morning and afternoon. Gusts 20-25KT are likely before winds diminish after sunset. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue in southern Nevada and western Arizona through the early evening, though after 00Z thee should be a decrease in activity. Any storms could produce heavy rain, lightning, and sudden gusty winds. Through the evening, thunderstorms will wane and shift east and precipitation should end by 05Z. A dry forecast is expected after this evening. Breezy southerly winds will continue at times through sunset when they will decrease to under 10KT following typical patterns overnight. KBIH may see a west push of winds between 00Z and 03Z. On Friday, widespread south to southwest winds will develop in the afternoon with gusts 20-30KT. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...Austin For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter