484
FXUS65 KVEF 072147
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
147 PM PST Fri Feb 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Gusty winds will continue across the southern Great
Basin and the Mojave Desert into this evening before diminishing
overnight. Pleasant conditions are expected over the weekend and
early next week as seasonable temperatures and light winds
prevail. The chance of precipitation returns to the region during
the second half of the week as a potentially robust atmospheric
river takes aim at southern California.
&&

.SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Sunday.

Winds remain gusty across the region early this afternoon, with
readings of 35 to 45 mph common across the southern Great Basin
and western Mojave Desert. Winds will gradually diminish through
the late afternoon and evening as the disturbance causing the
strong winds moves east of the region. A few isolated showers are
also possible over northern and eastern Lincoln County and far
northern Mohave County through sunset, but any precipitation that
does fall will be light. Relatively quiet weather is then forecast
for tomorrow and Sunday as weak ridging builds over the area.
Temperatures will cool a few degrees each day with highs returning
to near seasonable norms by Sunday.


.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday.

Ensembles are still in good agreement with quiet and seasonably
cool weather continuing through mid-week as weak troughing
develops over the region. There is also increased agreement in the
ensembles that the trough will deepen further on Tuesday as a
shortwave drops out of Canada. This will result in temperatures
cooling off a few more degrees, keeping readings in the upper 50s
on Wednesday and Thursday in Las Vegas. A change in the pattern is
expected by late week as another atmospheric river (AR) takes aim
at the Southern California Coast. There is still significant
disagreement on exactly where and when this AR will make landfall,
with the GFS keeping the system further north and weaker while
the ECMWF takes it on a more southerly trajectory and has it
stronger. The latest model runs continue to trend slower, so PoPs
in our area have to shift to later in the week. As with last
night`s model runs, the ECMWF shows Integrated Water Vapor
Transport (IVT) values of 300 to 400 kg per m per s reaching
southern Nevada late Thursday. In contrast, the GFS only shows
values of 250 kg per m per s making it over the California coastal
ranges and into southern Nevada. Assuming the AR can hold
together and make it into our region, rainfall amounts of .25 to
.5 inches could occur Thursday and Friday in lower elevations, and
several inches of snow could fall over higher terrain.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For Harry Reid...Strong southwesterly
winds (190 to 230 degrees) with peak gusts around 35 knots are
expected to gradually decrease this afternoon, further weakening
into the evening. Speeds fall to less than 10 knots overnight.
Tomorrow`s winds should be light through most of the day, but
there is potential for periods of northerly winds around 10 knots
between 17Z and 20Z. FEW low level clouds dissipate this
afternoon, leaving FEW to SCT high clouds through tonight and
tomorrow.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Strong winds persist across the Mojave Desert, taking a
southwesterly direction at KVGT and KHND, and a westerly direction
at KDAG. Peak wind gusts between 30 and 35 knots are expected at
these sites, decreasing overnight. Gusty northwesterly winds return
tomorrow morning at KVGT. Modest gusts between 20 and 25 knots out
of the south will decrease tonight at KIFP and KEED, becoming gusty
out of the north tomorrow morning. At KBIH, northerly to
northwesterly winds peak between 20 and 25 knots this afternoon,
decreasing overnight. FEW to SCT high clouds remain across the area
throughout the forecast period.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Planz
AVIATION...Meltzer

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