489
FXUS65 KVEF 190859
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1259 AM PST Sun Jan 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Cool and dry northwesterly flow persists through the
upcoming week. Our next system arrives on Monday, bringing
widespread gusty conditions and the coldest airmass of the season.
Winds and temperatures moderate later in the week as we eye a
potential pattern shift next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Tuesday.

Winds yesterday panned out as expected, with gusts of 25-35 mph in
the Laughlin-Needles area. Elsewhere, breezes were generally 25 mph
or less. We`ll see a brief reprieve from the north winds today as
gusts largely stay below 20 mph. Temperatures this afternoon top out
at similar values to Saturday.

Our next system dives out of the Great Basin and through the Mojave
Desert on Monday. This shortwave packs more of a punch compared to
the previous one, bringing widespread gusts of 20-35 mph across the
area. Strongest north winds will be in the Colorado River Valley,
where gusts of 40-50 mph are likely (75% chance). Expect crosswinds
on E-W roads and hazardous boating conditions on the local lakes.
Lighter winds are anticipated Tuesday, but gusts around 40 mph will
linger in the Laughlin-Needles area. Because of these winds, a Wind
Advisory has been issued for our Colorado River Valley zones from
Monday morning through Tuesday evening.

The other notable aspect of this system is the relatively cold air
accompanying it. Forecast temperatures are 6-10 degrees below
normal, and likely the coldest values of the season thus far. At
night, temperatures will drop near or below freezing across most of
the area. We`ll have to watch for potential hard freezes in the
Pahrump and Kingman areas as lows approach or fall below 20 degrees.
On Tuesday in Vegas, we may see lows between 25-30 degrees and
struggle to crack 50 degrees during the afternoons. So be prepared
to bundle up early in the week and remember to protect pipes,
plants, and pets!

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday.

Temperatures will quickly rebound to slightly above normal Wednesday
into Thursday as a ridge along the West Coast moves inland behind
the departing trough. Localized north winds gusting 25-35 mph will
linger between Laughlin-Bullhead City and Needles, but winds will be
fairly light across the rest of the region.

Attention then turns to another cold system that is indicated by
over 50 percent of model ensemble members, lead by the ECMWF,
dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska into the Pacific Northwest by
Friday. This will not result in much change in sensible weather
until Saturday into Sunday. The 12Z Saturday runs of medium range
ensemble clusters indicate just over 50 percent of members dig this
system and spin it up into a closed upper low over California and
Nevada Saturday night and Sunday. There is limited, but sufficient
moisture for some precipitation and it would be cold enough on this
trajectory for snow levels down to 2000-3000 feet MSL for most areas
north of I-40 Saturday night and Sunday morning. The latest NBM has
increased PoPs into the 25-35% range across most of our forecast
area. The 12Z Saturday runs of the deterministic operational ECMWF,
GFS and Canadian were also indicating this trend. However, it is
important to note that the remaining ensemble solutions keep a more
open inside slider across our area which would still be another cold
shot similar to recent events, but less dynamically favorable for
any snow to materialize in the desert zones. Stay tuned to see how
this potentially significant pattern change unfolds.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds have become light and variable
overnight, and will follow diurnal patterns through early Monday
morning. By late this morning, winds will shift and settle out of
the east-northeast, remaining northeasterly through sunset before
returning to the southwest. Wind speeds are expected to remain under
8KT for the duration with prevailing VFR conditions and only a few
passing high clouds with bases around 20-25kft. Looking toward
Monday morning, a northerly to northeasterly wind shift is expected
by around 15Z, with winds becoming elevated and gusty thereafter as
the next in a series of systems impacts the region.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For Las Vegas area terminals, winds will remain light
through the next 24 hours, following diurnal wind patterns. KBIH
will see a continuation of northerly winds, though a brief period of
light and variable winds is expected this morning. During the
afternoon, winds at KBIH will become gusty, with gusts to 15-20KT
continuing through the evening. KDAG, similar to other area
terminals, will see light winds with speeds under 10KT following
diurnal patterns. KEED and KIFP in the Lower Colorado River Valley
will see a reprieve from the gusty winds of the past several days.
Through daybreak, wind speeds at KIFP and KEED will remain around 10-
15KT, decreasing thereafter, but remaining northerly through early
afternoon before becoming light and variable. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail, with mostly clear skies.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Woods
LONG TERM...Adair
AVIATION...Phillipson

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