103
FXUS65 KVEF 230503
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1003 PM PDT Thu May 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Gusty southerly to southwesterly winds are
expected across the area tomorrow. A Lake Wind Advisory will be in
effect for Lake Mohave and Lake Mead, where waves of 1 to 3 feet and
gusts up to 35 mph are possible. Although temperatures will fall
several degrees over the weekend, they will remain near to above
normal for late May.

&&

.UPDATE...At 3:21 pm PDT this afternoon, Harry Reid International
Airport hit 100 degrees, making today the first triple digit day of
2025. Temperatures will cool a degree or two tomorrow and Saturday,
returning to near normal, as a shortwave rolls through the region.
Breezy winds will result in choppy waves tomorrow on Lake Mead and
Lake Mohave, where a Lake Wind Advisory will go into effect at 11:00
am PDT/MST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...404 PM PDT THURSDAY MAY 22 2025...

.SHORT TERM...Through Saturday.

The primary challenge in the short term is wind. A shortwave will
become centered over the California coast by Friday morning and
strengthen low level winds with speeds of 25 to 35 knots at 850 mb.
Forecast soundings show good mixing by the afternoon, which will
help increase winds at the surface. Peak gusts in the 25 to 35 mph
range are possible across much of the Mojave Desert, the strongest
of which will be in western San Bernardino County including the
Barstow area. Some isolated gusts up to 40 mph may be possible along
high terrain in this area. The area of greatest concern is along the
Colorado River, specifically Lake Mead and Lake Mohave. Sustained
speeds out of the south in the 20 to 25 mph range are expected on
Friday afternoon along with gusts up to 35 mph. These winds will
generate waves of 1 to 3 feet. A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for
both Lake Mead and Lake Mohave from 11 AM to 7 PM on Friday. Always
wear a life jacket while spending time out on the lakes! Winds on
Saturday should be lighter as the center of the shortwave moves
overhead and the strongest winds move east.

Temperatures fall several degrees between today and Saturday as the
shortwave moves through and heights aloft decrease. Saturday`s highs
will be closer to seasonal averages, which means the low 90s in the
Las Vegas area and upper 90s along the Colorado River. Despite the
relatively cooler temperatures, always stay adequately hydrated and
know where to find air conditioned space if spending time outdoors.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Thursday.

Model consensus decreases next week and confidence in forecast
details is lower than through this weekend. Cluster analysis
supports ridging building back into the region, and dry weather is
likely. However, how strong the ridge builds and where it sets up is
uncertain, which will influence temperature and wind forecasts.
Temperatures will should remain at or above normal the first half of
next week as even the 10th percentile "low end" high temperature
forecasts are not below normal. But overall temperature spread is
high. Winds may be breezy at times but probabilities for impactful
wind gusts over 40 MPH next week is low.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...South-
southwest winds continue through the majority of the TAF period.
Winds will be strongest in the afternoon and early evening hours,
with gusts 20-30 knots. A period of light and variable winds is
expected tomorrow morning, but speeds in excess of 10 knots should
return around 18z. High clouds at or above 20kft linger overnight
and tomorrow.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Breezy south-southwest
winds continue tonight across the Mojave Desert, becoming gusty area-
wide tomorrow afternoon. Gusts generally 20-30 knots tomorrow, with
values potentially getting up around 35 knots around KDAG. Breezy
northwest winds push into our northwestern areas tomorrow evening
behind a weak cold front. VFR conditions prevail as clouds remain at
or above 15kft across the region.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stessman
SHORT TERM...Meltzer
LONG TERM...Nickerson
AVIATION...Woods

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter