952
FXUS65 KVEF 101123
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
423 AM PDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Above-normal temperatures continue through the first half of next
  week, with Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories in effect.

* Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity possible across various
  parts of the forecast area, with best chances mid-to-late week.

&&


.DISCUSSION...Today through Sunday.

Through the start of the work week, the Desert Southwest will be
sandwiched between two ridges - one over the northeastern Pacific
Ocean and one over New Mexico. This will allow temperatures to
remain fairly stable for the next few days, with afternoon readings
ranging 4 to 6 degrees above seasonal normals. Temperatures peak on
Monday and Tuesday. Extreme Heat Warnings are in effect for Death
Valley National Park, western and southern San Bernardino County,
far southern Nye County, northwestern Clark County, and southern
Mohave County on Monday, with areas expanding to include the Las
Vegas Valley, eastern and southern Clark County, and eastern San
Bernardino County on Tuesday. Heat Advisories are in effect on
Tuesday for the Owens Valley, Esmeralda County, central Nye County,
Lincoln County, northern Mohave County, and the Clark County
Mountains, as higher elevations will provide minimal respite from
valley heat. Monday and Tuesday, expect widespread Moderate Heat
Risk, with increasing coverage of Major Heat Risk across lower
elevations. Troughing approaches the Pacific Northwest late-week,
which will deamplify the aforementioned ridges and bring cooler
temperatures to the region heading into next weekend.

Yesterday, an isolated cell formed over the higher terrain south of
Twentynine Palms, producing heavy rainfall. With persistent 0.75 -
1.00 inches of PWAT across far southern San Bernardino County,
coupled with daytime heating and higher terrain, cannot discount a
similar situation this afternoon along the State Route 62 corridor.
Modest moisture increases across the southern Great Basin on
Wednesday, which has increased PoPs on Wednesday across our northern
zones to 5 to 15%. Meanwhile, both the ECMWF and GFS ensemble means
indicate that a southerly flow mid-to-late week will bring 0.75 to
1.25 inches of monsoonal PWAT to far southern Nevada, far
southeastern California, and northwestern Arizona. PoPs will range
30 to 50% across eastern Mohave County Wednesday through Saturday,
with between 10 and 30% PoPs across Lincoln, Clark, and eastern San
Bernardino counties. Most likely impacts include gusty winds,
frequent lightning, and isolated instances of heavy rainfall,
particularly with storms that form over the higher terrain.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Light
winds favoring a southwest direction early this morning will turn to
a more easterly direction by mid-morning.  These east-northeast
winds will then continue into mid-afternoon before turning to the
southwest.  Sustained speeds should generally remain less than 10
knots, although a few gusts over 15 knots will become more likely as
winds turn southwest.  Light winds return overnight.  FEW to SCT
high clouds will move across the area through the TAF period.  Areas
of lofted smoke will continue to move across the area, causing
reductions in slantwise visibilities at times, mainly south and west
of the valley.  Temperatures today will exceed 100F between 19Z and
04Z, peaking around 108F.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 012Z Forecast Package...Except for the western
Mojave Desert and Colorado River Valley, winds will tend to follow
typical diurnal directional trends.  Across the western Mojave
Desert, winds will favor a westerly direction through the TAF period
while winds in the Colorado River Valley favor a more southerly
component.  Winds will increase across the western Mojave Desert
this evening with gusts to 25 knots likely.  Elsewhere, winds will
remain relatively light at 12 knots or less.  Lofted smoke/haze will
be possible across San Bernardino County and far southern Nevada
today, and may result in temporary reductions in slantwise
visibility at times.  Otherwise, FEW to SCT clouds with bases AOA
20kft AGL will move across the area through tomorrow.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Planz

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