749
FNUS73 KUNR 291857
FWSUNR

Spot Forecast for Lytle Hill Fire...US Forest Service
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1257 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1300 MDT on September 29.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT MONDAY...

.DISCUSSION...Critical fire weather conditions are expected over
the fire through Monday. Ongoing breezy southwest winds will
continue for much of today, with a small break this evening (around
sunset to 2200), before a cold front moves through the area.
Right now it looks like the frontal passage will be between
midnight and 0100 Monday morning. Following the frontal passage,
winds are expected to switch to out of the northwest, with gusts
of 40 mph expected. No precipitation is expected.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 89.
Min humidity........13 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 10 mph with gusts to
                    around 24 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......10600 to 11100 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph until 0700. Southwest
                    wind 5 to 10 mph from sunset to around 2200. Then
                    winds shift to the northwest and increase to
                    18 to 28 mph between 0000 and 0100 with gusts up to
                    40 mph. Gusty northwest wind of 15 to 25 mph expected
                    through sunrise.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......1000 to 2000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 25 mph shifting to the
                    northwest overnight (between 0000 and 0100).
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 55.
Min humidity........24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to
                    around 35 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......5400 to 6000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest 35 to 40 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent.

$$
Forecaster...MS
Requested by...Phumipraphat (Crow Peak Mod)
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2423228.0/UNR
.DELDT 09/29/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL keifer.huntley@usda.gov