606
FNUS73 KUNR 051056
FWSUNR

Spot Forecast for Kyle...SD-PRA
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
456 AM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0500 MDT on October 05.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...A dry cold front will arrive at the fire location around
0530-0550 this morning. Winds will quickly shift out of the northwest
with gusts 40 to 45 mph immediately behind the front.

Dry and windy weather will persist through the afternoon with sustained
northwesterly winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts 35 to 45 mph through the
afternoon. These winds along with daytime minimum relative humidity
around 15% will result in another day of critical fire weather conditions.

Overnight RH recovery will be improved tonight into Sunday morning, rising
to around 55% by daybreak Sunday. Winds will slowly diminish and become
lighter (5-10 mph) after 0300 tonight/Sunday morning.

Dry, sunny, and warm weather will persist Sunday into next week with
continued elevated fire weather conditions. Winds will remain below
critical thresholds Sunday through at least Thursday although no
precipitation is expected over the next 3-5 days.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 58.
Max humidity........35-40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 20 mph with gusts to
                    around 30 mph. Front will arrive around 0545-0600,
                    shifting winds out of the NW with gusts to
                    40 to 45 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......500 to 1000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West around 35 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........14-18 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. Northwest winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts
                    to around 40 to 45 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......5800 to 6300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 45 mph decreasing to around 35
                    mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 39.
Max humidity........55-60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph with gusts to
                    around 20 to 25 mph. Winds becoming lighter
                    (5-10 mph) after 0300-0400.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......400 to 900 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest 15 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........15-20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    northeast in the afternoon. Gusts up to 15 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......4300 to 4800 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair.

$$
Forecaster...SE
Requested by...IC Bauer
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2423656.0/UNR
.DELDT 10/05/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL justin.bauer@bia.gov