126
FNUS73 KUNR 151436
FWSUNR

Spot Forecast for Ellsworth RX Fall 2025...US FWS
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
836 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0915 MDT on October 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Moist conditions are expected through Thursday. Low
clouds, drizzle, and dense fog this morning will generally
improve by afternoon with perhaps some sun. On and off light rain
showers will be possible between now and Thursday evening. The
strongest surge of precipitation arrives this evening with
excellent chances for wetting rains along with some thunderstorms
and patchy fog. Patchy fog improves Thursday morning, but
additional showers are likely.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Areas of fog through
                    the day. Slight chance of rain showers late in
                    the morning. Drizzle likely through the day.
                    Chance of rain showers in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 52.
Min humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 10 mph with gusts to around
                    18 mph.
CWR.................20 percent.
Mixing height.......1200 to 1700 ft agl.
Transport winds.....East 15 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

TIME (MDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........98  98  98  98  98  98  98  98  98
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....DZL DZL DZL DZL DZL DZL DZL DZL DZL
Tstm cov........
CWR.............20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
Temp............48  49  49  50  51  52  52  52  51
RH..............100 100 100 97  95  95  96  93  100
20 FT wind dir..NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..6   7   7   8   9   9   9   8   7
20 FT wind gust.14  14  15  17  17  18  17  16  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.14  15  16  16  17  17  17  16  15

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Widespread fog in the
                    evening. Areas of fog overnight. Rain showers
                    in the evening. Chance of thunderstorms through
                    the night. Chance of rain showers overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 46.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the
                    north in the late evening and overnight. Gusts
                    up to 20 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the late evening and
                    overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms after 3 am.
CWR.................70 percent.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........98  99  99  100 99  99  98  98  98  98  98  98
Weather cov.....WID WID WID DEF DEF DEF CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....FOG FOG FOG RNF RNF RNF RNF RNF RNF RNF RNF RNF
Tstm cov........            CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............70  70  70  70  70  70  70  70  70  70  70  70
Temp............51  50  49  49  49  49  49  49  47  47  48  47
RH..............100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..7   6   6   7   7   8   8   8   9   10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.14  13  14  14  14  14  13  14  15  17  18  20

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Areas of fog
                    early in the morning. Rain showers likely
                    through the day.
Max temperature.....Around 62.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to
                    around 24 mph.
CWR.................45 percent.
Mixing height.......3900 to 4400 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest 20 to 25 mph shifting to the west
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........98  93  88  86  81  74  67  65  62  60  55  50
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40
Temp............47  48  49  51  53  55  56  58  60  60  59  57
RH..............100 100 100 96  93  83  77  69  64  62  62  67
20 FT wind dir..N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..12  12  12  10  12  12  13  13  13  13  12  12
20 FT wind gust.21  21  22  22  23  24  23  24  24  24  23  21
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 1.3 1.7 2.2 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.4 3.4 2.3
Transp wind dir.N   NW  NW  W   NW  NW  NW  W   W   SW  W   W
Transp wind spd.20  21  23  23  23  22  22  22  22  22  21  20

$$
Forecaster...AD
Requested by...Bela Harrington
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2523504.2/UNR
.DELDT 10/15/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL bela_harrington@fws.gov