742
FXUS63 KUNR 092314
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
414 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Upper low moves out tonight with rain slowly ending from west to
  east
- Mild and dry Sunday and Monday
- Gusty west/northwest winds and a bit of light precipitation
  Tuesday and Wednesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Afternoon Through Friday)
Issued at 1201 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

Water vapor and surface analysis shows stacked low over central
NEB. Widespread rain continues, especially across western SD into
the Black Hills, with some higher elevation snow. Chilly early
afternoon temps in the 40s (30s in the Black Hills).

Precipitation will gradually end from west to east overnight as
stacked low shifts into the Upper Midwest by Sunday morning. Dry
and mild weather quickly returns for Sunday/Monday as flat upper
ridge builds into the Northern Plains.

Next trof works through Tuesday and Wednesday, with a bit of light
precipitation on Tuesday as cold front moves through. Gusty
west/northwest winds behind the front will continue into Wednesday.
Very little cold air with this system so temps will remain mild.

Upper ridge builds in for the last half of the week for dry
conditions and mild temps. Next trof works through the Rockies
next weekend but details sketchy this far out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued At 407 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

Rain will end this evening as low pressure exits the region. IFR-
MVFR (local LIFR) conds from low clouds and fog over western SD
will gradually erode as dry westerly flow becomes established.
However, this is not very clear. Abundant LL moisture from recent
rain may allow areas of fog and low clouds to persist into later
Sunday morning, much later than what model guidance suggests.
Hence, have at least kept lower clouds in the KRAP taf later
through most of the night. VFR conds expected all places by Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Johnson
AVIATION...JC