247
FXUS63 KUNR 061117
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
517 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low impact weather through most of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Saturday)
Issued at 148 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Current water vapor imagery depicts mid level moisture associated
with a weak shortwave crossing the Northern Plains. A band of
high clouds stretches from southwestern into central SD.
Otherwise, it`s another calm and chilly night across western SD
and northeastern WY. This rather benign pattern will continue
through today into tomorrow as an upper level ridge persists over
the region. Highs today will reach into the upper 50s into the low
60s with some breezy northwest winds developing over northwestern
SD. Backdoor cool front nudges into central SD late Sunday into
early Monday. Other than the resultant upslope flow and low level
moisture supporting patchy fog/low stratus across the western SD
plains early Monday morning, not anticipating much out of this
front. Temperatures Monday will range from the mid 60s across
northeastern WY and southwestern SD to the upper 40s across
northwestern into south central SD.

Upper level shortwave will flatten out the ridge and drop into
the Northern Plains on Tue/Wed, bringing the next chances for
precip to the region. Most of the moisture will have been squeezed
out of this system by the time it makes it from the PNW to here,
so not expecting a huge rain maker. LREF probs paint 70-100%
chances for at least measurable (0.01") precip over the CWA.
However, probs for 0.1+" QPF drop off with 20-40% probs over the
western SD plains, and 50-70% across northeastern WY, the northern
Black Hills, and far western SD. Weak buoyancy (250-500 J/kg SB
CAPE per NAM) Tuesday afternoon could support some thunder before
the front pushes through.

Deterministic guidance in good consensus of ridge building back
over the region by Thur/Fri, bringing warmer and above average
temperatures back into the region by Sat/Sun. GEFS/GEPS/ENS all
depict 70-90% probs of 2 meter temp anomalies of 10+F by next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued At 517 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Wong
AVIATION...26