025
FXUS63 KUNR 052311
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
511 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions continue through this afternoon

- Dry and generally above normal temperatures continue through
  early next week with periods of elevated to critical fire
  weather conditions

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday)
Issued at 133 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Most recent sfc obs show cold front has exited SD with breezy
northwest winds across the CWA gradually diminishing as the front
moves further to the southeast. Winds have gone down since this
morning with widespread gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Current sfc
analysis depicts strong low pressure system over MB with building
high pressure over the PNW. This high should move into the region
by tomorrow, bringing cooler and more seasonable temperatures to
the CWA. The frontal passage didn`t bring any rain or appreciable
moisture with it but it certainly brought in smoke from the
wildfires burning to our west. Smoke should remain mostly aloft
with hazy skies through the rest of today into tomorrow as a
result - especially over northeastern WY.

RHs have dropped off again with many stations in the area
reporting RHs below 25%. Though RHs are above the critical
threshold of 15%, the antecedent dry conditions and breezy
northwest winds will facilitate critical fire wx conditions. These
critical conditions expected to persist through this afternoon
before gradual improvement this evening as winds diminish and RHs
increase.

Long range ensemble guidance in good consensus of upper level
ridge building over the west once more and staying in place over
the region through most of next week. Temperatures will once again
climb through the next week as low level thermal ridging takes
place. 12z GEFs is the warmest in terms of temperatures for the
next week, painting around 60 to 70% probs of max temperatures
exceeding 90 degrees by Thursday. 12z GEPS/ENS solutions remain
"cooler" though they`re both depicting near 100% probs of highs
exceeding 80F by Weds/Thu. All ensembles are in very good
agreement that it will be dry, painting 0% probs of >0.1" total
QPF over the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued At 509 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Mainly VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period.
Gusty northwest winds will gradually diminish from west to east
this afternoon, becoming noticeably calmer after 00Z this evening.
Smoke from western wildfires may drift into northeast WY
overnight, causing some vis restrictions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 133 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Critical fire wx conditions will continue through this afternoon
as relative humidities remain below 25% with breezy northwest
winds at 10 to 20 mph, gusting up to 40 mph. Critical conditions
will abate as winds diminish and RHs increase through the evening
hours.

Dry and very warm conditions will return by next week. While
winds won`t be as strong, there is still the potential for periods
of near critical to critical fire weather through next week.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     SDZ319>335.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for SDZ001-002-012>014-
     078.
WY...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for WYZ314>318.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Wong
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...Wong