426
FXUS63 KUNR 121046
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
446 AM MDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Mild and dry through Thursday

-Critical fire weather conditions possible Thursday

-Deep low pressure will bring strong gusty winds to the region
 Friday with some rain and light snow

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Tuesday)
Issued at 118 AM MDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Digging western CONUS trough will offer downstream ridging,
supporting mild and dry weather over the region through the week.
However, this system will eject into the central Plains Thur-
Friday, supporting deep low pressure. The consensus track of this
storm will favor strong gusty winds, some rain and light snow
chances locally, with adv to warning level winds likely Friday.
Warmer air continues to advect into the region via SW flow aloft.
Expect another mild and dry day today with highs in the 60s most
places. Upper trough will push east Thurs and kick the lee side
trough east, with cyclogenesis ensuing on the Plains. Deep layer
WSW flow will allow very warm temps Thur with highs in the 60s and
70s most places, a few 80s toward scentral SD via gusty SW winds,
supporting likely critical fire weather conds over the southern
third of the area. Cold front will push through the region Friday
with very strong ll NW flow progged. Classic setup for strong
winds as pressure rises, a deepening sfc low, and CAA will all
line up in the region. Would not be surprised to see wind gusts
over 70 mph at some locations on the SD Plains, esp in the lee of
the Black Hills. Upper trough will also support some light rain
and snow, with the best chances over the NW third (esp the
northern BH) where some Pac moisture will advect into the region.
Any snow accums over the western 2/3 will generally be light, less
than an inch. Cooler for the weekend, but dry conds with a
warming trend expected into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued At 446 AM MDT Wed Mar 12 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 118 AM MDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Warm and dry conditions will persist through Thursday with
elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions. Thursday will
see the warmest temperatures with 70s/low 80s likely across the
western SD plains. Warm temps and dry air will support RH`s down
into the teens over the southern third of the FA. In addition,
gusty SW winds over 30 mph are expected. Given these concerns,
have issued a fire weather watch for Thursday.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for SDZ325-326-331>335.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...JC