602
FXUS63 KUNR 161635
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1035 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Rain/isolated storms continue across northeast WY, Black Hills
 area, and northwest SD today; secondary area across south
 central SD

-A cold front will bring light rain early Saturday along with cool
 and breezy weather; some light snow in the Black Hills

-After a mild Sunday, semi-unsettled and cooler to start next
 week

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Wednesday)
Issued at 242 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Water vapor imagery shows a deep upper trough across the western
half of the CONUS, with the main upper low centered over UT. Deep
moist SSW flow persists over the northern Plains this morning, with
several waves supporting showers and thunderstorms now crossing the
central Dakotas. Dry slotting has just moved into much of western
SD. KUDX radar shows the bulk of precip moving northward across NW
SD and NE WY, while drier air has ended precip across the rest of
the CWA. At the surface...a surface low has moved into the Neb
panhandle while a stalled frontal boundary straddles south central
SD. Fog is developing behind the front across portions of western SD
into the Black Hills. Today, the upper low will swing into the
eastern half of WY. A deformation zone will setup from WY to SE
MT/wrn ND, with showers over NE WY persisting through much of the
day. Some of these showers will extend into the Black Hills area
this morning and into the far western SD plains. Elevated weak
instability will support isolated thunderstorms. The surface low
will slide northeastward along the frontal boundary into central SD.
Cold air advection will resume on the backside of the low as NW flow
strengthens. A second area of storms is expected this afternoon with
the slow frontal boundary across far south central SD, but severe
weather is not expected. The storm system will lift northeast
through ND tonight, ending the precip across the CWA. A clipper will
quickly advance within the NW flow, crossing the northern Rockies on
Friday...then push through the CWA late Friday night into Saturday.
Low QPF rain showers are expected Saturday, along with cool/breezy
conditions. Snow will fall across the Black Hills in the morning
hours, but little to no accumulation is expected. After a brief
warmup on Sunday, the next trough is progged to cross the region
early next week, bringing another round of cooler, somewhat
unsettled weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Friday)
Issued At 1033 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Widespread IFR/MVFR conditions will continue for much of the day,
with scattered -shra/tsra found across northeast WY/northwest SD.
The precipitation will lift into ND through the day, with some
clearing pushing north from SW SD into the southern Black Hills
this afternoon. More widespread VFR conditions will overspread the
region later tonight as drier air moves in behind an exiting low
pressure center.



&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...13
AVIATION...Hintz