174
FXUS63 KUNR 011741
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1141 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Continued dry into early next week with generally above normal
 temps and breezy conditions

-Critical to near critical fire weather conditions at times this
 week

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Monday)
Issued at 1254 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Continued active northern stream flow will support periodic dry
low pressure systems through this week as a baroclinic zones
remains over the region. WAA ensuing tonight ahead of the next low
pressure system. Breezy southerly winds will develop today, esp
on the SD plains where gusts over 35 mph are expected. Very dry BL
will support critical fire weather conds as RH drops below 15
percent. Warmer today with 70s and few 80s expected for highs.
Cool front will settle into the region late tonight, with breezy
NW winds developing across NW SD. Frontal boundary will settle
south Wed, with temps expected into the mid 80s to low 90s ahead
of the front. Cooler Wed night and Thur. Sfc high shifts over the
region Thur with return flow developing Friday. This will support
warmer weather Friday and Sat with 70s and 80s expected for highs
respectively. The next front will move through Sat, supporting
cooler conds Sun, with the WAA process ensuing once again next
Monday. No precip expected through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued At 1140 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2024

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Breezy
southwest winds will continue across the area this
afternoon...and also across some parts of the area through
tonight. A cold front will then cross the area through the day
on Wednesday, bringing breezy northwest winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 1254 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Breezy southwest winds ahead of the next low pressure system,
combined with very dry air in place (RH less than 15 percent) will
support widespread critical fire weather conditions today. A red
flag warning is in effect this afternoon through early evening.
The Red flag warning may need to be extended through Wednesday.
Poor RH recovery is expected tonight ahead of a cool front. This
front will support breezy NW winds Wed with continued very dry
conditions as RH falls below 20 percent all areas. The strongest
winds will be across northwest SD. After cooler weather Thursday,
above normal temps, breezy weather, and very dry conditions will
continue this weekend.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for
     SDZ319>335.
WY...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ314>318.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...JC