079
FXUS63 KUNR 070833
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
133 AM MST Thu Nov 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonal through Friday afternoon
- Upper low will bring light precipitation Friday night/Saturday
- Mild and mostly dry early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Wednesday)
Issued at 131 AM MST Thu Nov 7 2024

08z surface analysis had high pressure over the SD/NE border
bringing clear skies to the CWA. Water vapour loop had upper low
over the four corners area with upper ridge west of CA extending
into the northern Plains. Upper low will be the main weather
concern.

Today through Friday afternoon, upper ridge slowly weakens as
upper low slowly moves to the OK panhandle. Seasonally pleasant
weather expected.

Friday night/Saturday, upper low ejects into the Midwest with
ensemble guidance consensus showing it over southern MN by 12z
Sunday. System will have little opportunity to pull in much cold
air with main lift (QG-forcing) over southeast half of the CWA.
LREF depicts 50% chance 0.1" QPF from Rapid City to 80% chance
0.25" over south-central SD. Not much snow potential given lower
tropospheric thermal profiles. Temperatures will cool, but near
normal and guidance.

Sunday through early next week, upper ridge builds over the
central CONUS in response to fast moving upper trough traversing
the west coast into the Rockies. How this system affects the
region mid-week next week uncertain, but most guidance is fairly
progressive, so impacts may be limited.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued At 955 PM MST Wed Nov 6 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Helgeson
AVIATION...SE