530
FNUS75 KTWC 061747
FWSTWC

Spot Forecast for Turkey Flat Pile...USFS
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1047 AM MST Mon Jan 6 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 MST on January 08.

.DISCUSSION...A winter weather disturbance is expected to move into the
area Tuesday night and impact the Pinaleno mountains with windy conditions,
colder temperatures and snow. Snowfall amounts are expected to be fairly
light...between 1 and 3 inches.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy with  a chance of snow showers.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent decreasing to 30 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....28-33 degrees.
Min humidity........33-36 percent.
20-foot winds.......Windy. East to southeast winds 18 to 26 mph with gusts
                    to 40 mph in the morning decreasing to 18 to 22 mph with
                    gusts to 30 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 22 to 28 knots.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      10 AM     1 PM      4 PM
Sky (%).........74        67        62
Weather cov.....CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....SNSHWR    SNSHWR    SNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............50        40        40
LAL.............1         1         1
Temp............28        30        27
RH..............43        45        48
20 FT wind......E 26G40   E 22G33   SE 20G30
Mix hgt (ft)....2500      3100      2100
Transport wind..E 28      E 24      E 22
Haines index....2         2         2

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
                    Chance of snow showers, then slight chance of
                    snow showers.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent decreasing to 20 percent early in
                    the morning.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....23-26 degrees.
Max humidity........48-51 percent.
20-foot winds.......Breezy in the evening. Southeast winds 18 to 22 mph with gusts
                    to around 30 mph decreasing to around 12 to 15 mph with
                    gusts to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 14 to 23 knots shifting to the east
                    around 13 knots early in the morning.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........56  56  56  56  56  51  51  51  51  51  51  48
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  20
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............25  25  26  26  26  26  25  25  25  25  25  25
RH..............48  46  44  43  43  43  44  45  45  45  44  44
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..20  21  21  21  19  18  17  17  16  15  13  12
20 FT wind gust.30  30  30  29  28  26  24  23  21  19  18  16
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E
Transp wind spd.22  23  23  23  21  20  19  18  17  16  14  13
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers.
Chance of pcpn......20 to 30 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....34-37 degrees.
Min humidity........42-45 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 8 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 11 to 12 knots shifting to the east
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........48  48  48  48  48  50  50  50  50  50  50  45
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............20  20  20  20  20  30  30  30  30  30  30  20
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............24  24  25  27  30  32  33  34  35  34  32  30
RH..............45  47  49  48  47  46  44  43  43  45  47  50
20 FT wind dir..SE  S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..11  11  10  9   8   8   8   9   9   9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.14  14  14  14  14  14  14  16  16  16  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.2
Transp wind dir.E   NE  NE  NE  NE  N   NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E
Transp wind spd.12  12  11  11  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

$$
Forecaster...RASMUSSEN
Requested by...SRD
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2500088.0/TWC
.DELDT 01/06/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL John.W.Fitzgerald@usda.gov

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