480
FXUS65 KTWC 160953
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
253 AM MST Wed Apr 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Warm and breezy to windy today with wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph.
Stronger winds are expected Thursday with gusts of 35 to 45 mph.
Blowing dust will be possible Thursday, especially in dust prone
areas from Willcox eastward into New Mexico. Critical fire weather
conditions are expected today and tomorrow with the combination of
wind and dry air. A cold air push this weekend brings below normal
temperatures and a chance for light precipitation early Saturday.
Temperatures warm again by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A closed upper low remains just off the southern California coast
this morning, while an attendant mid-level jet sits from the
trough base through southeastern Arizona. Over the coming 24
hours, this low will stretch laterally and open, sending impulses
through the southwest flow over the state. Subsequently a
pressure gradient at the surface along with increased low to mid
level winds will be responsible for increasing surface winds today
and tomorrow. As this low opens it will phase with a northern
stream trough dipping south through the Great Basin, bringing
cooler temperatures by Friday and Saturday. Finally the overall
trough axis will be crossing early Saturday along with chances for
precipitation. Temperatures in the mid-levels quickly moderate
in the following days as zonal flow and height rises follow the
trough Sunday into early next week.

This afternoon, southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected
along with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Far southeastern areas at
elevation or exposed to southwest flow may see a bit stronger
winds. As very dry air remains in place, a Red Flag Warning is in
effect this afternoon and early evening for zones south and east
of Tucson. Today will be the final day this work week of well
above normal temperatures before the low aloft moves into the area.
Highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s are expected across desert
locations.

Thursday will see the mid-level jet over southeastern Arizona
strengthen, further tightening the surface pressure gradient.
Additionally, 40 to near 50 kt winds will begin to dip down to
around 700mb, a signal for strong wind gusts delivered by a
deepening boundary layer. Over areas of Graham, Greenlee, and
Cochise counties 25 to 35 mph winds with gusts to 45 mph are
likely, with isolated occasional gusts to 50 mph in exposed
elevations or areas prone to strong southwest flow. This should
kick up some blowing dust, especially along I-10 near the Willcox
Playa and east through the New Mexico border. Wind and Blowing
Dust advisories have been issued for these areas for Thursday. To
the west, breezy to windy conditions of 20 to near 30 mph winds
are likely with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Some patchy blowing dust
may also impact the interstate corridor of Pinal and Pima
counties. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect on Thursday.

Friday sees the upper low beginning to swing into the desert
southwest, dropping temperatures from near normal Thursday to
below normal Friday. Windy condition are expected again in Graham
and Cochise counties where the pressure gradient lingers.
Precipitation chances arrive late Friday into Saturday with the
arrival of the trough axis, including light snow down to 7000
feet. With how far north the trough base is likely to pass, just
slight precipitation chances (10-20 percent) are forecast for
areas as far south as Tucson or Nogales. Greater chances extend
from Safford through the White Mountains. High temperatures
Saturday are forecast to be 7 to 10 degrees below normal. Cold air
behind the trough should also push Sunday morning lows into the
30s in cold spots of eastern valleys, especially in the Willcox
area where near freezing temperatures are likely (40% chance of a
sub- freezing low from NBM). Above normal temperatures return by
early next week as broad ridging sets in.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 17/12Z.

Winds increase and become southwesterly after 16/17Z. Strongest
winds near International border KOLS-KDUG with 20-25 kt winds and
gusts 30-35 kts. 15-20 kt winds and gusts to 30 kts further north
through KTUS-KSAD. Winds decrease after 17/02Z but remain breezy
into the late evening. Stronger winds expected Thursday. Mostly
SKC through the period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Near critical to critical fire weather conditions today and
Thursday with Red Flag Warnings issued for both days. Southwest
winds today 15 to 25 mph with gusts 30 to 40 mph, then stronger
Thursday 20 to 30 mph with gusts 35 to 45 mph. Locally higher
winds possible Thursday, especially in far southeastern areas or
exposed higher elevation locations. Cooler temperatures and
moisture move in from the west Friday, with dry air and increased
winds lingering in southeastern Cochise county to produce another
day of at least near critical fire weather conditions. Cooler
temperatures and a chance for light precipitation arrives with a
crossing system late Friday night through Saturday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM MST this evening for
AZZ151-152-154.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ151>154.

Blowing Dust Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM MST Thursday for AZZ508-
509-511-512.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM MST Thursday for AZZ507>513.

&&

$$

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