317
FXUS65 KTWC 301552
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
852 AM MST Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Active monsoon pattern for the next 7 days will bring
daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms will
generate strong winds and locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.UPDATE...Latest visible satellite imagery shows an MCV from the
remnants of the overnight convection across far northern Sonora, to
the south of western Pima County. Still quite a bit of cloud cover
from Tucson westward with mostly sunny to partly sunny skies east of
Tucson. As the morning progresses, expect increasing sunshine from
east to west as the MCV moves farther away. Meanwhile, the next
disturbance is coming in quickly and seen on WV imagery near El
Paso. 12Z HREF/CAMs have initialized the ongoing situation well and
develop the next round of convection as early as around 1 PM from
Tucson eastward as the next disturbance approaches and helps enhance
lift. Still looking like an active afternoon/evening across much of
our forecast area. Convective parameters look favorable with MLCAPE
around 1000 J/KG and DCAPE around 1000-1300 J/KG to produce strong
outflow winds. The Flash Flood Watch and Blowing Dust Advisory that
the previous shift issued also still look good. Forecast is in good
shape. No updates this morning. See previous discussion below for
additional information.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms continue to
push west this morning, the last day of June, associated with a
disturbance aloft moving across northern Sonora MX. Have seen some
strong wind gusts from either thunderstorm (72 mph at Pioneer Air
Field) or with the outflow (63 mph at Nogales airport, 62 at Mt
Hopkins, 55 mph at Nogales airport and 44 mph at Tucson Intl).
These showers will gradually end from east to west this morning
with cloud cover also decreasing as the morning progresses. This
sets us up for an active afternoon/evening. HREF continues to
paint central/eastern Pima, Santa Cruz and western Cochise county
for threat of heavy rain with deep moisture over the area. WPC has
this area under slight risk of excessive rainfall this
afternoon/evening. Thus have decided to hoist a Flash Flood Watch
from 4 pm to 11 pm for cntrl/ern Pima county, all of Santa Cruz
county, western portions of Cochise county and southern portions
of Pinal county. Some storms today will also be strong to severe
with outflows developing areas of blowing dust, especially west
and northwest of Tucson. Thus have also hoisted a blowing dust
advisory for above mentioned area from 3 pm to 10 pm.

Monday will be dependent on how worked over the atmosphere is
from todays storms. Daily chances of showers/storms will exit for
the rest of the work week. High temperatures for the most part
will be around or slightly above of normal as we start July.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 01/12Z.
SCT-BKN clouds at 8-12k ft AGL thru the fcst period. SCT -SHRA
and ISOLD -TSRA movg W and dissipating by 30/17z then redvlpg Aft
30/20z to SCT -SHRA/-TSRA with brief MVFR conds nr storms. SFC
winds 10 kts or less with the occasional afternoon gusts, except
stronger due to gusty outflows from storms. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Relatively deep moisture will stick around through
the forecast period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and tonight. The upcoming week will see daily chances
of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Strong erratic
gusty winds of 40 mph or higher can be expected with any storm
development, along with locally brief heavy rainfall. Outside of
thunderstorm winds, 20-foot winds will generally be 15 mph or less
each afternoon with the occasional gust of 20 mph. Min RHs will
generally be around 20% in the valleys and 30s in the mountains
with good overnight recoveries.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Blowing Dust Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM MST this
  evening for AZZ502-504>506.

 Flood Watch from this afternoon through this evening for
  AZZ502>507-513>515.

&&

$$

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