480
FXUS65 KTWC 150847
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
148 AM MST Wed Oct 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will prevail this week with below normal
temperatures. Expect a warming trend this weekend to near normal
temperatures into early next week.
. Below normal temperatures are expected through the work week, with
a warming trend arriving this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Clear skies across southeast Arizona this morning as
the area is under southwesterly flow aloft as a strong trough/upper
low shifts east near the CA/NV border. As this system moves east,
dry conditions will continue across our forecast area, though deeper
moisture still resides nearby to our east in New Mexico. Below
normal heights and thicknesses will result in a continued cooling
trend, with temperatures on Thursday being the coolest of the
forecast period (about 6 to 12 degrees below normal). Ensembles show
ridging building back in this weekend as a cut-off upper low takes
shape over the eastern Pacific. We start to see some differences
around Monday and Tuesday in terms of how fast this system will
eject east and additionally on whether any notable increase in
moisture gets pulled northward. For now, will take a middle of the
road approach keeping things dry with some slight cooling early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 16/12Z. Generally SKC-SCT clouds 4-7k ft
AGL this morning, then becoming mainly SKC after 15/18Z thru the end
of the valid period. Surface winds light and terrain driven less
than 10 kts, becoming west to southwest 8 to 12 knots 15/18Z-16/03Z
with occasional gusts to 20 kts. Thereafter, surface winds light and
terrain driven again. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will persist through the weekend.
Minimum RH values will be 30-40 percent in the valley`s today, with
higher values in the mountains. Min RH values lower into the 20-30
percent range in the valleys Thursday into the weekend. 20-foot
winds mainly 15 mph or less this week, with occasional gusts to 20-
25 mph. High temperatures will be below normal into this weekend,
warming to near normal levels by early next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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