227
FXUS65 KTWC 052035
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
135 PM MST Sat Oct 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Unseasonably hot temperatures and dry conditions into
early next week, with daily highs in Tucson ranging from 101 to
105 through Tuesday. A gradual cooling trend through the rest of
the week, but remaining well above seasonal normals.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A strong high pressure will continue to be over the
region for most of the new work week. Thickness values will peak
by Tuesday and slowly erode away by the end of the week. Areas
Tucson and west can experience temperatures ranging 100 to 109
degrees through Tuesday. Temperatures across the region will trend
down, but those temperatures will still be on the warmer than
normal side.

Towards end of the week, there are some variations on ensemble
model solutions. One solution has 18% of members bringing a
trough south into Arizona to bring much needed cooler temperatures
by next weekend. Yet, it is 18% where as the other three
solutions show a slight difference on the ridge and low pressure
movement and impact. 41% of members show a strong dominant ridge
and staying fairly dry and warm. Another solution has a ridge
with the weak low moving through (27% of members) and bringing
moisture for some rain showers. The last of the members (the 14%)
show a weaker ridge over the region but staying a little warm as
well. With this forecast package, the chances for precipitation
will be in the single digits on Wednesday through the weekend to
reflect the higher members ensemble agreement. Thus, high pressure
will keep its influence of the warm and dry through the middle of
October.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 07/00Z.
FEW-SCT clouds AT 7k-10k ft AGL thru 06/04Z and again aft 06/19Z,
with clear skies/SKC conditions between 06/04Z and 06/19Z. SFC wind
10 kts or less favoring a NWLY/NLY direction during the afternoon
and early evening hours and variable in direction at other times.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry and warm conditions will continue through next
week. Minimum RH values through Thursday will be 6-15 percent in the
lower elevations and generally 13-23 percent in the mountains, with
slightly higher values at the end of next week. 20-ft sustained
winds will be less than 15 mph, with some afternoon breeziness due
to the warm temperatures. North to northwest winds on Sunday and
then east to southeast winds Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Public...Strongman
Aviation...Zell
Fire Weather....Zell

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