265
FXUS65 KTWC 272106
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
206 PM MST Thu Mar 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures tomorrow will be 7-10 degrees above
normal cooling to 0-5 degrees above normal this weekend into next
week. A passing weather system to the north will bring breezy
winds Friday into the weekend leading to localized critical fire
weather conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION... Mostly clear skies this afternoon with cumulus
clouds popping up over the mountain tops and high clouds moving in
from the west. A series of troughs passing mainly north of our
area will begin at the end of this week. The first moves through
Friday into Saturday with another, weaker one, quickly moving
through southern Utah on Sunday. These systems will be dry with
the main impact being gusty winds and slightly cooler temperatures.
High temperatures tomorrow will be 7-10 degrees above normal
cooling to around normal or a couple degrees above normal Saturday
and Sunday. Winds will be breezy Friday into Sunday with speeds
15-20 mph and gusts to 35 mph with Friday and Saturday seeing the
strongest speeds. The winds and low RH will lead to elevated fire
weather conditions from Tucson eastward and localized/brief
critical fire weather conditions for areas of Cochise, Graham, and
Greenlee Counties.

Monday will see a brief break in the gusty winds before the next
system moves through Tuesday. Temperatures next week will range
from 0-5 degrees above normal. The middle of next week another dry
trough moves through the region, but still uncertainty with how
far south it will end up and how quickly it moves through. The
GEFS mean 500 mb heights keep it north of us and move it through
quickly, while the ECMWF ensemble is slower and further south.
Right now the main impact of this system looks to be continued
breezy winds, which likely keep fire weather conditions elevated.

&&

.AVIATION... Valid through 29/00Z.
Mostly SKC with FEW mid level clouds popping up over mountain
tops at around 10k to 12k ft AGL. FEW to SCT clouds will move into
the area from the west around 27/22Z AOA 15k ft AGL clearing out
by 28/04Z. High level FEW to SCT clouds will move into the are
from the west around 28/13Z AOA 20k ft AGL becoming more SCT and
at around 15k ft AGL by 28/19Z. SFC winds will be from the
northwest at 5 to 10 kts transitioning to the south at 3 to 5 kts
around 28/05Z. Breezy SFC winds at KOLS and KDUG in the afternoon,
gradually increasing to 15 to 20 kts sustained from the southwest
with gusts to 30 kts by 28/22Z. Weaker winds over KTUS at 10 to
15 kts from the southwest with gusts to 25 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER... Continued warm afternoon temperatures across
Southeast Arizona 7 to 10 degrees above climatological normals
through Friday. Humidities will remain at critical levels
throughout the next 7 days with lower locations in the single
digits and mountains bottoming out in the lower teens. A couple
weather system passing to our north Friday into the weekend will
result in breezy conditions each afternoon. This will lead to
elevated fire weather conditions mainly east of Tucson Friday-
Sunday with Friday and Saturday likely seeing the stronger winds.
Brief and very localized critical weather conditions will be
possible Friday and Saturday east of Tucson. Brief break in gusty
winds Monday then breezy winds return Tuesday and Wednesday as
another dry weather system moves through.

&&

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Malarkey

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson