


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
002 FXUS65 KTWC 061000 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 300 AM MST Sun Jul 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered storm coverage today focused on locales generally south and southwest of Tucson. With deep moisture in place across Southeast Arizona, the main hazard from the storms today will be their capability to produce heavy rain. Otherwise, temperatures will warm back up to above normal levels this weekend with the potential for extreme heat to return to Southeast Arizona by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION...The sky was clear this morning across most of SE Arizona. The exception was scattered clouds NE of Safford. GOES-19 PWAT imagery showed values ranging from 1" near the AZ/NM border to 1.40" over western Pima county. The main theme this week will be an expanding strong ridge of high pressure aloft over the state resulting in very hot, near record high temperatures mid-week and a low grade monsoon pattern. For today, latest CAMs show scattered showers/storms this afternoon and early evening S and SE of Tucson. Brief heavy rain and gusts up to 45 mph main threats with the storms. As mentioned above, its going to get hot again with Wednesday being the hottest day with near record highs. For Tucson the record high for Wednesday (9th) is 111 degrees with latest NBM probabilities having a 62% chance for 110, 35% chance for 111 and 11% chance for 112. With all that said, an Excessive Heat Watch has been hoisted for the lower elevations of Pima, Pinal and Graham counties. && .AVIATION...Valid through 07/12Z. SKC to FEW 10-12k ft AGL thru 06/19Z then SCT-BKN 7-12k ft AGL with ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA mainly S/SW of KTUS thru 07/04Z with CIGS BKN 5-8k ft AGL and gusty outflow winds up to 40 kts. Surface winds generally WLY 8-13 kts, becoming SLY less than 10 kts overnight. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A decrease in thunderstorm activity is expected today into early this week as the area transitions into a low grade monsoon pattern. An eventual uptick in monsoon activity is possible the middle of next week but will be dependent on how quick the high pressure aloft shifts north. Temperatures heating up this week with hottest temperatures mid-week. Winds generally light and under 15 mph with the exception of gusty and erratic winds up to 35-45 mph near any thunderstorms. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for AZZ501-502-504>506-509. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson