538
FXUS65 KTWC 191026
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
326 AM MST Sat Apr 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Light valley rain showers and mountain snow showers will
make their way across the area this morning with high temperatures
running 7-10 degrees below normal. A chilly start tomorrow morning
with lows near freezing in eastern valleys but highs rebounding near
normal with additional warming expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...At the time of this writing a band of light showers
has set up between Tucson and Phoenix behind a frontal band. The
band of precipitation associated with an upper trough axis passing
through the region today will support valley rain and mountain snow
chances mainly north and east of Tucson and along the New Mexico
state line. Would not be surprised if snow levels drop enough to see
a few flakes mix in briefly near Oracle early this morning. The best
timing for precipitation will be before 11 AM with QPF amounts up to
0.25 inches in the White Mountains and generally less than 0.10
inches in the valleys. Slight precipitation chances will linger in
the White Mountains through the afternoon, although most of the
activity will have shifted into New Mexico by the afternoon. We will
also see breezy to windy conditions again today but this time out of
the northwest with speeds of 15-25 mph and occasional gusts to
around 30 mph east of Tucson.

The next couple mornings will start off surprisingly chilly across
southeast Arizona and high temperatures will only make it into 60s
to low/mid 70s today. Morning lows may drop to near freezing in the
Sulphur Springs Valley tomorrow morning, but afternoon highs will
make a stronger rebound into the 70s and 80s topping out around
normal. For the start of the next work week temperatures will rise
above normal with highs topping out in the mid/upper 80s and low 90s
supporting typical afternoon breeziness to the east of Tucson.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 20/12Z.
SCT-BKN clouds 4-7k ft AGL associated with -SHRA/-SHSN mainly north
and east of KTUS before 19/18Z. Thereafter, skies clearing across
the forecast area from west to east through the remainder of the
valid period. SFC winds WLY/NWLY at 13-22 kts with a occasional
gusts to around 30 kts. Strongest winds will be east of KTUS in the
vicinity of KDUG, KALK, and KSAD. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Cooler temperatures through tomorrow morning, with
high temperatures today running 7-10 degrees below normal. There
will be chances for light precipitation across mainly the eastern
half of the forecast area today, with higher precipitation chances
in the White Mountains. A warming trend then starts Sunday and
continues through next week, as high temperatures warm to near
normal on Sunday and then 6-8 degrees above normal Monday through
Thursday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DVS

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