739
FXUS65 KTWC 070901
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
201 AM MST Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and hot conditions across Southeast Arizona
through next week. High temperatures will be 3 to 5 degrees above
normal through the middle of next week, moderating a degree or
two the second half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Climatologically, the first half of June across
Southeast Arizona is usually considered hot, but quiet. The
forecast this week is NOT an exception to this rule. To jazz
things up a little, maybe we will label the forecast quiet and
hot. In any event, the big picture is this: a broad ridge of high
pressure across northern Mexico this morning will slowly shift
west this weekend and consolidate into a stronger ridge of high
pressure centered off the coast of the northern Baja (near
26N/122W) by 00Z Tuesday. As this shift occurs, a weak trough will
shift east across the northern half of Arizona the first half of
next week. This disturbance will generally be dry, but there may
be just enough mid-level moisture to result in a few afternoon
build-ups near the White Mountains, especially Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Expect to see an amplification of the pattern the second half of
next week as the ridge shifts farther into the Eastern Pacific and
is replaced by a high amplitude trough along the West Coast. In
response to this trough, expect strong ridging to develop across
the central CONUS extending into the Southern Rockies. The 07/00Z
GEFS ensemble members are a bit more robust with this solution
than the ECMWF members at this time, but the 07/00Z ECMWF is
trending in this direction as well. If that is the case, we can
expect afternoon temperatures nearing 110 degrees in the Tucson
Metro Area late next weekend. The 07/05Z NBM probabilities for
KTUS to meet or exceed 110 degrees is 5 percent next Sunday (June
15th), 13 percent (June 16th) and 7 percent (June 17th). This is
still outside the range of today`s forecast, but it is important
to bring up now as we may have to stress heat safety if this
solution come to fruition. Until then...quiet and hot.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 08/12Z. Clear skies/SKC conditions
thru the forecast period. SFC wind will be 10 kts or less
and variable in direction through 07/18Z, then SWLY through NWLY
in direction 8-14 kts and gusts to 20-25 kts. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Hot and dry through next week. 20-foot winds
generally 15 mph or less, with occasional afternoon/early evening
gusts to around 25 mph due to strong surface heating. Min RH
values in the lower elevations in the single digits the next 7
days and between 7-14 percent in the mountains. A weak weather
disturbance will slowly track across portions of Southeast Arizona
the first half of next week resulting in a few afternoon build-ups
with the possibility of a dry thunderstorm near the White Mountains,
especially Wednesday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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