Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
991 FXUS65 KTWC 100945 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 245 AM MST Fri Jan 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Expect dry and cool weather for the next few days. At or below freezing low temperatures will persist through Monday morning for most of southeast Arizona. Then temperatures gradually warm starting the beginning of next week. && .DISCUSSION...Satellite shows clouds dissipating east of Tucson with clear skies expected by sunrise. Temperatures are currently around freezing or a few degrees below freezing south and east of Tucson and in the mid 30s to low 40s across the Tucson metro. Temperatures will continue to drop through the night. A Freeze Warning is in effect through 10 AM. As temperatures drop winds will pick up through the night out of the east mainly from Tucson south along the international border. This has already happened in the Douglas area. Although these easterly downslope winds could prevent lows from reaching their full potential, it will still be cold enough to produce wind chill values below 15 degrees. Because of this a Cold Weather Advisory is in effect east of Tucson, which includes the mountains where single digit wind chills are possible. Today will be dry and cool as a trough, currently in northern Mexico, moves east out of the region. In its wake the upper air pattern stays fairly progressive with a series of troughs moving through the Great Basin and Arizona, keeping height anomalies negative. High temperatures will stay below normal through Monday with low temperatures staying at or below freezing through Monday morning as well for the entire CWA. The Sulphur Springs Valley will be especially cold with lows ranging from 11 to 16 degrees each morning. After Monday ensembles show a closed upper level low setting up off the coast of southern California. There is better agreement on the placement of the low compared to 24 hours ago with a majority of members centering it over the ocean rather than inland. Although there is still uncertainty with how far off the coast it will set up. For Arizona this translates to an increased heights, which will allow temperatures to gradually warm by the middle of the week. The low moves onshore sometime late next week, which will likely decrease temperatures a few degrees. As far as precip chances go the NBM is pessimistic, giving only 15-25 percent PoPs Thursday into next Friday. && .AVIATION...Valid through 11/12Z. FEW-SCT clouds 6k-9k ft AGL in Cochise County and along the AZ/NM border this morning, becoming SKC after 10/12Z. Surface winds ELY/SELY winds becoming 8-14 kts and gusts up to 25 kts with the strongest winds at KDUG. Winds will gradually diminish aft 10/18Z, but keep their easterly component. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Expect widespread sub-freezing temperatures across Southeast Arizona each morning through Monday. Winds will be easterly today with some breezes this morning mainly from Tucson south along the international border. Thereafter expect terrain driven winds with speeds less than 15 mph. Dewpoints decrease after today leading to min RH values between 10-20 percent into early next week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 10 AM MST this morning for AZZ501>509. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM MST this morning for AZZ507>513. && $$ Hardin Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson