Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
433
FXUS65 KTWC 032218
AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
318 PM MST Sun Aug 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Very hot weather will continue this week with high
temperatures near monthly August records for some locales Wednesday
and Thursday. Dry conditions prevail Monday, then a very low
grade monsoon pattern returns precipitation chances starting
Tuesday, focused closer to the International border.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Unseasonably strong high pressure aloft currently centered over
northern Baja California, will strengthen and begin to shift eastward
over the NM border by midweek. This will return a low grade monsoon
pattern across our area under relatively dry southeast flow aloft. The
threat of any storms Tuesday through Thursday will focus near and along
the International border. By Friday current thinking remains for
greater storm coverage over southeast Arizona, as successive ensemble
solutions continue to hint at this.
High is fairly well stacked vertically and remain so through at least
the middle of next week. Towards the end of week, the high reflected
at 250 mb is forecast to migrate southeast of the mid level feature
over northern Mexico. Its displacement and the return to southeast
flow aloft with some added moisture, should allow for temperature a
couple degrees by Friday.
&&.CLIMATE...All-time August record highs including date and
forecast highs for Wednesday and Thursday.
WED FCST THU FCST
Ajo 118 on August 28, 2023 114 113
Organ Pipe Cactus 116 on August 5, 1995 114 112
Picacho Peak 114 on August 28, 1998 109 110
Tucson Intl airport 112 on August 1, 1993 112 111
Safford (town) 110 on August 16, 2024 109 109
Willcox 108 on August 1, 2020 105 105
Nogales (town) 107 on August 5, 2023 105 104
Douglas airport 106 on August 5, 2023 104 103
Sierra Vista 105 on August 6, 2023 102 101
.AVIATION...Valid through 05/00Z.
Mainly SKC for the forecast period with FEW clouds 10-12 kft to from
04/03Z at KDUG. Sfc winds WLY-MWLY to 04/02Z at 8-12 kts with gusts
up to around 20 kts. Aft 04/02Z sfc winds mainly 8 kts or less thru
04/06Z becoming mostly terrain driven through 04/14Z
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Dry weather and light winds will dominate
through Monday, with very hot temperatures through most of next week.
Temperatures will continue to rise and peak at 8 to 14 degrees
above normal Wednesday and Thursday. A return to a very low grade
monsoon pattern starts Tuesday initially along the International Border
and then gradually expands to the rest of southeast Arizona by weeks end.
Indications continue to hint at an uptick in storms next weekend.
Min RH values areawide will continue around 8 to 15 percent through
Thursday then 15 to 25 percent starting Friday. Mountain readings
climb into the lower 30 percent range Saturday.
&&
.CLIMATE...All-time August record highs including date and
forecast highs for Wednesday and Thursday.
WED FCST THU FCST
Ajo 118 on August 28, 2023 114 113
Organ Pipe Cactus 116 on August 5, 1995 114 112
Picacho Peak 114 on August 28, 1998 109 110
Tucson Intl airport 112 on August 1, 1993 112 111
Safford (town) 110 on August 16, 2024 109 109
Willcox 108 on August 1, 2020 105 105
Nogales (town) 107 on August 5, 2023 105 104
Douglas airport 106 on August 5, 2023 104 103
Sierra Vista 105 on August 6, 2023 102 101
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Friday for AZZ501>507-509.
Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM MST Friday for
AZZ508.
&&
$$
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