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FXUS65 KTWC 012033
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
132 PM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather with near normal high temperatures through
Wednesday. A weather system will bring cooler temperatures and a
slight chance of snow showers for the White Mountains Wednesday
night. Some afternoon breezes are expected Wednesday as well. Dry
weather then returns area-wide Thursday into early next week with
high temperatures near seasonable levels this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Mostly sunny skies prevail this afternoon with some
high cirroform clouds as well as a few lower level cumulus clouds as
a mid level disturbance moves through the region.

Dry west to northwest flow will continue for the next couple of days
with the next weather system of note slated for Wednesday night into
Thursday. The latest trends for this system among the deterministic
and ensemble guidance is for this positively tilted trough to have a
more northern trajectory with it through the Four Corners region and
NE Arizona. This track results in even less precipitation chances
for our area and PoPs have been lowered below mentionable levels
except for the White Mountains where a 10%-25% chance of snow
showers is expected Wednesday night. The gradient will tighten up
slightly ahead of the trough and result in some breezes, especially
south and east of Tucson Wednesday afternoon where gusts of 20 to 25
mph will be common.

Temperatures will nudge down slightly starting Wednesday and
continuing through Friday to slightly below normal levels. The
typically colder valleys south and east of Tucson will see morning
low temperatures below freezing especially Friday and Saturday
morning.

Otherwise, with the northern stream trough passing to our north
Thursday, we`ll still need to keep an eye on the southern stream
upper low Wednesday well to our southwest that will open up as it
slides east across northern Mexico Thursday into Friday. Right now,
it looks like that system will stay to our south as enough
northwesterly flow for our area dominates.

Ridging will then build back in this weekend into early next week
with a gradual warming trend in temperatures.


&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 03/00Z.
FEW-SCT clouds 4-7k ft AGL and AOA 20k ft AGL, gradually diminishing
aft 02/00Z. SFC wind 12 kts or less thru the valid period, favoring
a WLY/NWLY direction during the afternoon/early evening hours and
variable in direction at other times. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and near normal high temperatures are
expected through Wednesday. There will be a slight chance for snow
showers Wednesday night in the White Mountains. High temperatures
lower to below normal levels Thursday and Friday and then rebound to
near normal over the upcoming weekend. Min RH values will be in the
25-35 percent range through Friday, lowering to 20-30 percent this
weekend. 20-foot sustained winds of 15 mph or less are expected
through Tuesday, with elevated southwest to west winds Wednesday,
especially southeast of Tucson. Wind speeds of around 15 mph and
gusts 20-25 mph are expected over portions of eastern Santa Cruz and
Cochise counties Wednesday afternoon. Lighter winds return Thursday
into the weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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