437
FXUS65 KTWC 041004
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
304 AM MST Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A drying trend is expected for today into this
weekend with storm coverage more isolated and focused on locales
south of Tucson. Temperatures will remain below normal through
Friday before warming back up to above normal levels by Sunday and
continuing through much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Infrared satellite imagery this morning showed
mid-level clouds slowly decreasing east of Tucson while lower
level clouds were hugging the mountains. Water vapor imagery
showed weak upper trof over eastern AZ with drier air moving
into the area. PW values are down up to three-tenth of an inch
per WPC 24 change chart. At the surface dewpoints were in the
60s.

Today: Surface dewpoints will be mixing out into the upper 40s to
upper 50s for most of the area. The exception will be along with
Intl border, especially across SW Cochise county and Santa Cruz
county where they will hold in the lower 60s. This area will be
have the best chances for thunderstorms today with localized heavy
rain the main threat, especially near and in the mountains.
Isolated storms across Pima and the remainder of Cochise county.
Highs a few degrees warmer than yesterday.

Saturday: Thanks to an overnight push of low-level moisture from
the Gulf of CA, will hold on to a chance of showers and t-storms
across Pima, Santa Cruz and Cochise counties. Highs up to 5
degrees warmer than today.

Sunday: Convective activity limited to areas S and SE of Tucson
with highs heating up around 2-5 degrees.

Next week: Heating up with limited thunderstorm activity as upper
high strengthens over the state. Highs Mon thru Wed 3-7 degrees
above normal, peaking on Wed, where we may not be hot enough with
potential larger area of HeatRisk being in Major category.
Uncertainty remains next Wed/Thu on upper ridge orientation and
potential for a rim shot under mid-level NE flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 05/12Z.
Sct debris clouds will gradually decrease this morning. SCT-BKN
7-12k ft AGL will dvlp aft 04/19Z. SCT SHRA/TSRA are expected
through 04/04Z with CIGS BKN 5-8k ft AGL and gusty outflow winds
up to 40 kts. Surface winds generally WLY 8-13 kts, becoming SLY
less than 10 kts overnight. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Slightly below normal temperatures today, then
warming back this weekend into next week. Expect scattered showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening mainly south
and southeast of Tucson. A decrease in thunderstorm activity is
expected this weekend as the area transitions into a low grade
monsoon pattern. An eventual uptick in monsoon activity is
possible the middle of next week but will be dependent on how
quick the high pressure aloft shifts north. Winds generally light
and under 15 mph with the exception of gusty and erratic winds up
to 35-45 mph near any thunderstorms.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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