811
FXUS65 KTWC 082112
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
212 PM MST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...No impactful weather expected over the next seven
days. Overall dry conditions with temperatures begining to slowly
warm up now into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Temperatures are slowly warming up after the
freezing to near freezing temperatures from the low pressure
system that passed through mid this week. As of 1pm, Tucson
International Airport is XX degrees warmer than this time
yesterday and this gradual warming trend is expected to continue
into next week.

The gradual warming trend is thanks to a small ridge building over
the area tomorrow into Monday. Overall, the temperatures will warm
to 3-5 degrees above normal (normal temperatures being 75-78
degrees) during this time.

A trough looks to pass to the north of the area in the
Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. Overall, this system looks to remain
north of the area as the GFS ensemble mean keeps this system well
to the North of Arizona and the ECMWF ensemble mean brings the
system a tad farther south to the Utah/Arizona border. Depending
on how far the shortwave associated with this system goes
southward, we have the potential to increase afternoon winds a
tad, but no major impacts overall.

Looking past this the next potential weather maker comes in the
following Sunday/Monday, so we shall see how this shakes out.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 10/00Z.
SKC through the valid forecast period. SFC winds W/NW 5-10 kts this
afternoon,becoming variable aft 09/03Z, then W/NW again 5-10 kts aft
09/20Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will prevail through the forecast
period. Temperatures will moderate this weekend with highs returning
to above normal levels Sunday through next week.  Minimum relative
humidities through next week will be around 10-20 percent in valleys
and 20-30 percent in the mountains. 20-ft winds mainly less than 15
mph through next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Public...Tetrault
Aviation...Lader
Weather....Lader

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