645
FXUS65 KTWC 100930
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
230 AM MST Thu Oct 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Unseasonably hot conditions will continue, with a
slow cooling trend this weekend into next week even as
temperatures remain well above average. Mostly dry, but a few
light showers possible this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...With the storm track remaining well north and a very
weak southern branch split, broad high pressure will continue to
dominate the desert southwest. That means more record highs and
generally dry lower levels. A shallow moisture increase is
fueling partly cloudy afternoons around the mountains and lower
elevations west of Tucson, but once again that probably isn`t
going to amount to any significant rain chances. Surface dewpoint
in Yuma had jumped into the 70s yesterday, but has dropped over 35
degrees in the past 24 hours, with the shallow southerly flow on
the KYUX VAD wind profile veering back to the northwest. We`ll
see weaknesses in the flow dirty up the ridge from time to time,
but not much change over the next week or so other than very
gradual cooling as heights and thicknesses slowly fall.

Ensemble means still suggesting a pattern change for the second
half of next week as a more amplified solution brings in a strong
trough with a solid southern branch split. That should finally
push temps back down to near climo and could bring a chance of
showers to the area late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 11/12Z.
FEW-SCT clouds 10k to 15k ft AGL. SFC winds ELY/SELY with speeds
generally remaining less than 10 kts. Possible ISOLD -RA/-TSRA
after 10/20Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Mostly dry conditions will prevail through the
week. Easterly to southeasterly 20 ft winds will be 10 to 15 mph
with the occasional afternoon gust. Minimum RH values will be
5-15 percent for lower elevations and in the low to mid 20s for
higher elevations. A brief modest increase in moisture may result
in a few light afternoon showers (less than 15% chance) around the
region today.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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