521
FXUS65 KTWC 111557
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
857 AM MST Mon Aug 11 2025


.SYNOPSIS...Daily shower and thunderstorm chances this week with
day to day variability in these chances. High temperatures will
generally remain above normal this week.


&&

.UPDATE...Southeast Arizona will have another active day with
thunderstorms and rain showers developing mainly east and south to
southeast of Tucson. These are the better areas for thunderstorm
development due to inability and dynamics. We can expect storms
and rain showers to linger in the late night. Main threats will be
gusty outflows and locally brief heavy rainfall. Therefore, no
changes to the forecast today.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 235 AM MST Mon Aug 11 2025/
Thunderstorms south of the Intl border before midnight pushed an
outflow north into southern Cochise county which kicked off a few
showers and thunderstorms from Sierra Vista to Bisbee early this
morning. The 11/00Z 500 mb upper air plot placed the upper high
centered near Reno and a tail end of upper trof moving through NM.

This week will see daily chances of afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms with day-to-day variability in areal coverage.
With PWAT values mainly in the 1" to 1.4" range this week, there
will be daily threat of brief heavy rain along with strong gusty
winds and areas of blowing dust. High temperatures will mostly
run several degrees above normal.

In the short term...

Today, thunderstorm activity will be mostly concentrated NE of
of Safford and S-SE of Tucson with a few showers continuing into
the overnight hours. Isolated severe and heavy rain threat with
the strongest storms.

Tuesday is trending to be a much more active day with the
steering flow out of the N-NE as the upper high is centered over
northern Arizona. 11/00z HREF has neighborhood probabilities for
gusts in excess of 30 kts between 30% and 70% chance and a 10%
chance of gusts in excess of 50 kts centered across Graham county
and northern Cochise county. Blowing dust will also be a concern.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 12/12Z.
Debris cloudiness mainly AOA 10k ft AGL will be decreasing through
11/18z. Aft 11/18z ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA mainly NE of KSAD and
S-SE of KTUS. Gusty erratic winds up to 40 kts near any TS.
With Otherwise, surface winds should remain below 15 knots.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will remain several degrees
above normal this week. Daily chances for thunderstorms and
wetting rains through the week with daily variability in coverage
and intensity. Min RHs will generally be around 15-25 percent in
the lower elevations and 20-35+ percent in the mountains. Winds
will generally be less than 15 mph with typical afternoon gusts up
to 20 mph into the new week, though stronger northwesterly winds
possible in the Gila River Valley today with afternoon gusts up
to 35 mph.

&&

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson