326
FXUS65 KTWC 012113
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
213 PM MST Tue Apr 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather with slightly above normal temperatures
today. A dry-weather system is currently bringing breezy to windy
west winds to Southeast Arizona, especially areas east of Tucson.
These conditions will result in critical fire weather conditions
and the potential for areas of localized blowing dust. A series of
mainly dry weather systems will bring cooler temperatures midweek
into the weekend along with a chance of light precipitation
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The dry weather system has made it to Southeastern
Arizona bringing windy conditions. As of 2 PM MST, wind gusts
have been in the mid 40s to low 50s in Cochise, Graham, and
Greenlee counties. So far there has been low visibilities due to
blowing dust along I-10 from Willcox to the Arizona/New Mexico
border resulting in visibilities below 1/4 to 1 miles in
visibility. This blowing dust and decreased visibility is expected
through this afternoon into the early evening hours. The Wind
Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM MST tonight. This system
has remained dry with relative humidities in the mid teens to mid
20s and strong winds continuing the Red Flag Warning that is in
effect now through 8 PM MST tonight.

Looking ahead, the upper low continues to move through Wednesday,
bringing slight chances (20-40%) in the White Mountains. Snowfall
accumulations continue to be low at 0.1-0.5 inches in the highest
peaks. The other noticeable change with this system is the
decrease in the daytime temperatures with highs in the valleys
forecasted to be in the low to mid 60s, about 10-15 degrees below
normal. These cooler temperatures will continue through Friday as
a reinforced low pressure system comes through this weekend. This
low pressure system brings chances (30-50%) for precipitation for
pretty much all of Southeastern Arizona in two waves, one on
Friday morning/afternoon then again Saturday morning/afternoon.
After this trough passes, ridging comes into the area slowly
rising temperatures next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 03/00Z.
Sfc winds currently west 15-25 knots with gusts to 40-45 knots
thru 02/06Z. Highest winds will be across eastern Arizona and
along the Arizona/New Mexico border where localized 3-5SM BLDU
will be possible this afternoon and evening. SFC winds then
decrease to below 10 kts and follow diurnal trends thru 02/18Z
then increase to west at 15-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts thru the
end of the period. SCT-BKN clouds AOA 15-20k ft AGL and FEW-SCT
low clouds between 6-8k ft AGL through the end of the period.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A weather system moving through the region will
result in strong and gusty west winds 20-30 mph with gusts 45-50
mph this afternoon and evening (strongest winds along the
Arizona/New Mexico border). Given the low afternoon humidity
values between 10-15 percent and the high fire danger rating, a
Red Flag Warning is in effect for all the lower elevations from 1
PM to 8 PM Today. Thereafter, expect occasionally breezy
conditions each day with a slight chance (20-40%) of light showers
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ150>152.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ507>513.

&&

$$

Tetrault

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