555
FXUS65 KTWC 092031
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
131 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Warmer temperatures are expected this coming week with near to
above normal highs across southeastern Arizona. A pattern switch
is possible next weekend which should bring cooler temperatures
and chances for rain showers and mountain snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The upper level pattern is highlighted by a deep low and surface
cyclone over the central to northern high plains, with mid-level
height rises ongoing over the desert southwest in its wake. Mean
height anomalies over the coming week will generally be positive,
with a weak ripple passing on Tuesday. Dry conditions with near to
above normal temperatures will be the main story under this
pattern, until a potential pattern change to broad troughing
arrives next weekend.

High temperatures will rise a few degrees above normal Sunday and
Monday, putting Tucson and western lower elevation areas in the
lower 80s and eastern lower elevations into the 70s. We should see
low temperatures come up as well, with one more lingering night of
below freezing temperatures in the Willcox area tonight. The high
temperature forecast Tuesday dips to right around normal as a dry
open wave shortwave trough crosses the region, then temperatures
rise above normal again through the remainder of the work week
under ridging aloft.

Though still about a week out, fairly impressive agreement exists
in lower height anomalies over the region next weekend. Details
remain fuzzy, however the likelihood of below normal temperatures
and widespread precipitation chances are increasing.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 11/00Z.

SKC with light, terrain driven winds under 10 kts through the
forecast period. Some high level cirrus possible tomorrow.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry and near to above normal temperatures this coming week. Minimum
relative humidities through next week will be around 10-20
percent in valleys and 20-30 percent in the mountains. 20-ft winds
mainly less than 15 mph through next week, with some gusts to 20
mph on Tuesday. A pattern switch will likely bring cooler
temperatures and chances for precipitation this coming weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Public...Edwards
Aviation...Edwards
Fire Weather....Edwards

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