563
FXUS65 KTWC 022108
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
208 PM MST Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A weather system will track across Southeast Arizona
today bringing breezy winds and a slight chance of precip north
of Tucson. Another weather system will then move in behind this
first system, resulting in a slightly better chance of light
precipitation Friday and Saturday. Thereafter, a strong ridge of
high pressure will move into the area. This will bring a
significant warm-up in afternoon temperatures begining this
weekend and persisting through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery shows longwave troughing over
the western half of the U.S and a large ridge upstream over the
eastern Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska. This general pattern will
stay in place through the end of the work week, then the ridge
moves inland pushing the trough eastward. A few vort maxes move
through the southern periphery of the trough over the next few
days. The first moves through today, traveling through
north/central Arizona. Because of this trajectory precip chances
stay mostly north of the CWA. HREF members show shower activity
staying mainly in Maricopa and Gila Counties with maybe a shower
or two in far northern Graham and Greenlee Counties and Pinal
County. The main impact on sensible weather here in southeast
Arizona will be breezy winds and cooler temperatures. Highs will
be 10-15 degrees below normal though Friday.

Thursday will be a mild and cool day with some virga around and a
slight chance of rain in southern Pima County in the evening.
Rain chances will begin to increase overnight Thursday into Friday
morning as the longwave trough dips further south thanks to the
Pacific trough beginning to move onshore. As this is happening
another vort max will also be moving through Sonora lending
further upper level support. Best widespread precip chances will
be Friday morning into the afternoon with PoPs generally 40-60
percent. Chances extend into Saturday mainly along the AZ/NM
border and the White Mountains as one last vort max moves through.
However moisture won`t be great, so most lower elevation areas
Friday into Saturday will see less than 0.1" and up to a 0.5" of
liquid in the White Mountains. Any rain for lower elevations will
likely fall on Friday rather than Saturday. Snow levels will be
above 7500 feet with snow totals light in the Sky Islands and up
to 5 inches in the White Mountains.

Sunday into next week ridging looks to dominate the Southwest
which will lead to a quick warmup. Highs this weekend will be 5-10
degrees below normal, warming to around normal Monday, then 5-10
degrees above normal by the middle of next week. Beyond Wednesday
it looks like the Tucson airport could see its first 100 degree
day of the year next week Friday, with the NBM giving a 25
percent chance.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 04/00Z.
Expect SCT-BKN low clouds between 6k-10k ft AGL through the end
of the period. SFC winds will be westerly 15-20 kts with gusts
25-35 kts this afternoon and early evening. The strongest winds
will be southeast of Tucson along the Arizona/New Mexico border
which includes KDUG. Winds begin to decrease after 03/03Z
becoming variable less than 8 knots overnight. Winds turn westerly
again Thursday afternoon with speeds 8-14 knots. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A weather system will track across Southeast
Arizona today. Expect breezy west winds from Tucson eastward this
afternoon, but will be significantly less than winds Tuesday. A
few areas in Cochise county may briefly be near critical fire
weather conditions this afternoon. Another weather system will
then moves in behind this first system, resulting in chances for
light precipitation Friday and Saturday. Thereafter, a strong
ridge of high pressure will move into the area bringing with it a
significant warm-up in afternoon temperatures begining this
weekend and persisting through next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Hardin

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