422
FXUS65 KTWC 120956
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
256 AM MST Mon May 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...High temperatures well above normal today, then
cooling to near to below normal levels Wednesday and Thursday
with warming again thereafter. Breezy to windy west to southwest
winds today through Wednesday with less wind later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery this morning showed considerable
mainly high clouds over the area which will continue at various
thicknesses throughout today. This cloud cover may keep high
temperatures from reaching their potential this afternoon with
most of the area being 4 to 8 degrees above normal.

Main weather concerns for today and tomorrow are fire related as
an upper level trof near PacNW moves inland and deepens a bit
while increasing the pressure gradient across the area as it moves
east across the intermountain west. Expect gusty southwest winds
today and tomorrow and combined with relative humidity values
below 15%, critical fire weather conditions for most of the area
today and tomorrow. Expanded the Red Flag warning today west
across eastern Pinal, central/eastern Pima, and Santa Cruz
counties. See fire weather section below for additional details.
Areas of blowing dust are possible today and tomorrow especially
across out dust prone areas. Highs Tuesday 3 to 8 degrees cooler
than today but still above normal for most of the area. The
exception will be western Pima county where they will run up to 5
degrees cooler than normal.

Wednesday: Highs 4 to 8 degrees cooler than Tuesday or 3 to 8
degrees below normal. Not as windy as Tuesday.

Thursday: Slightly warmer, but still running several degrees below
normal. Typical gusty afternoon winds.

Friday: Warmer with highs near normal. Typical afternoon gusty
winds.

Saturday: Afternoon breezes as the next Pacific trof tightens
pressure gradient. Highs at or several degrees below normal.

Sunday: Above mentioned Pacific trof deepens across the Great
Basin bringing breezy to locally windy conditions and isolated
areas of near critical fire weather conditions east of Tucson.
Highs cooler and below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 13/12Z.
SCT-BKN clouds AOA 15k thru most of the valid pd. SFC winds vrbl
less than 10 kts thru 12/14z then bcmg SLY/SWLY and increase to
14-22 kts by 12/18Z with gusts 30-35 kts until 13/03z then
diminishing thru end of valid pd. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A storm system will pass to our north during the
first half of this week with temperatures cooling by midweek.
This system will bring strong and gusty west to southwest winds
Monday through Wednesday. Critical fire weather conditions are
expected this afternoon for most of the area and again Tuesday
afternoon. The strongest winds will occur Tuesday with sustained
winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts 40 to 45 mph area-wide. As the
system pulls away Wednesday, gusty winds will persist near the New
Mexico border. Red Flag Warning today was expanded west across the
remainder of fire zones 151 and 154 and includes eastern half of
fire zone 150. The Red Flag Warning for Tuesday is for all of
southeast Arizona. Trends will be watched over the next day or
so for the potential need for fire weather headlines east of
Tucson Wednesday. For the end of the work week, typical afternoon
breezes are expected but will remain below critical levels.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MST this evening for
  AZZ150>154.

 Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MST Tuesday for AZZ150>154.

&&

$$

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