361
FXUS65 KTWC 262159
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
259 PM MST Sat Apr 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry, warm, and breezy this afternoon. Breezy winds
continue into Sunday with a slight cool down into early next week.
Temperatures rebound by the end of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A strong low pressure system making its way onshore
into California will be heading north of us with a trajectory into
the Great Basin this afternoon and evening. Strong southwest flow
aloft (70-80 kts) at 500 mb will translate down to the surface
creating breezy to windy conditions at times across southeast
Arizona this afternoon through Monday afternoon. Southwest winds
tomorrow will be sustained at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40-45 mph
to the south and east of Tucson.

When combined with the warm and very dry preexisting conditions, the
increased winds will result in near critical fire weather conditions
this afternoon and critical fire weather conditions tomorrow south
and east of Tucson. A Red Flag Warning is in effect between 10 am
and 8 pm MST tomorrow.

The wind may stir up very dry soils creating blowing dust concerns,
especially in dust prone areas along I-10 near the Wilcox Playa and
near the Arizona and New Mexico state line. A Blowing Dust Advisory
has been issued for the Gila River Valley in Graham/Greenlee
counties and portions of eastern Cochise county from 10 am to 7 pm
MST tomorrow. Visibility may be reduced to between one and three
miles and locally to between one quarter and one half mile at times.

By Monday, southwest winds may still be a bit on the breezy side,
especially across far southeast Cochise county and along the AZ/NM
state line. However, as the aforementioned low begins to open up and
move out of the Great Basin the pressure gradient will relax and the
jet maximum will push east of the area keeping any dust impacts well
east of our area.

Temperatures by late next week look to rebound into the low 90s, but
for now we will experience a brief cooldown to close out the weekend
with highs dropping by 4 to 10 degrees areawide for tomorrow into
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 28/00Z.
SKC through the forecast period. SFC winds SWLY at 13-22 kts with
occasional gusts to 30-35 kts this afternoon. After 27/03Z, SFC winds
diminishing to 12 kts or less and VRBL in direction. Stronger SWLY
winds tomorrow picking up after 27/17Z with speeds of 17-26 kts and
gusts up to 40 kts. Highest winds expected in the vicinity of KDUG
and KALK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...An approaching weather system will increase winds
resulting in near critical to critical fire weather conditions this
afternoon and tomorrow. This afternoon near critical fire weather
conditions are expected across Cochise county and eastern Santa Cruz
county as well as at exposed ridgetops.

For Sunday, a Red Flag Warning is in effect from 10 am to 8 pm
including eastern portions of zone 151 along with zones 152, 153,
and 154. This area includes the Sky Islands of Southeast Arizona,
Cochise, Graham, Greenlee, Santa Cruz, and eastern portions of Pinal
and Pima counties. Critical fire weather conditions are forecast
Sunday with southwest winds of 15-25 mph and gusts to 45 mph.
Although cooler temperatures are forecast Sunday into Monday,
moisture will be lacking and minimum relative humidities should
remain in the 6 to 10 percent range. Breezy conditions will linger
Monday mainly in Cochise County, but should remain below critical
levels.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blowing Dust Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM MST Sunday for AZZ508-
509.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ151>154.

&&

$$

DVS

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