Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
263 FXUS65 KTWC 070926 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 226 AM MST Thu Nov 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A weather system brings colder temperatures to the region today with a few rain and high elevation snow showers northeast of Safford. Morning low temperatures will be quite cold today and Friday, especially south and east of Tucson where a Freeze Warning is in effect. Temperatures then warm this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION...Current water vapor imagery shows a closed low centered over east central Arizona. Clouds have cleared out across most of the CWA with just some lingering clouds along the AZ/NM border and southeast Cochise County. The clear skies have allowed temperatures to drop to freezing or a few degrees above freezing south and east of Tucson. Douglas is the only exception where the lingering cloud cover has kept temps in the 40s. Temperatures will continue to cool leading to lows in the low 20s to freezing. Expect similar low temperatures Friday morning. A Freeze Warning is in place for areas south and east of Tucson this morning and Friday morning. Tucson will see lows this morning and Friday morning in the mid 30s with some low lying areas briefly seeing temperatures around freezing. Today the upper level low slowly moves south into northern Graham and Greenlee County then moves east into New Mexico tonight. There will be just enough moisture for the low to tap into to lead to isolated light rain and high elevation snow showers northeast of Safford. Rain and snow amounts will be very light, generally just a few hundredths and up to 2 inches of snow at the highest elevations of the White Mountains. High temperatures will be chilly, about 20 degrees below normal. Winds will also be breezy mainly along the international border. In the wake of the trough a ridge will move in leading to a warmup this weekend into early next week. Temperatures return to normal by Saturday, warming to above normal Sunday into Tuesday. && .AVIATION...Valid through 08/12Z. SCT-BKN Clouds 6k-12k agl from KSAD northeastward through the evening and near KDUG this morning. Isolated -SHRA and mountain -SHSN will be possible this afternoon from KSAD northeastward. Sfc winds west to northwest at 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts this afternoon and evening. The strongest winds will be at terminals along the international border. Winds subside after 08/03Z becoming variable less than 8 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Below normal temperatures remain through Friday then warm to a few degrees above normal Sunday into early next week. Minimum relative humidities through Friday will be in the 15 to 25 percent range in lower elevations and 25 to 35 percent in the higher elevations. This weekend into early next week min RH values generally 10-20 percent. A weather system will bring breezy winds today along the international border and a chance for valley rain and mountain snow northeast of Safford today. Thereafter expect dry conditions. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM MST this morning for AZZ503-507>509. Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM MST Friday for AZZ503-507>509. && $$ Hardin Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson