Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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263
FXUS65 KTWC 070926
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
226 AM MST Thu Nov 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A weather system brings colder temperatures to the
region today with a few rain and high elevation snow showers
northeast of Safford. Morning low temperatures will be quite cold
today and Friday, especially south and east of Tucson where a
Freeze Warning is in effect. Temperatures then warm this weekend
into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Current water vapor imagery shows a closed low
centered over east central Arizona. Clouds have cleared out across
most of the CWA with just some lingering clouds along the AZ/NM
border and southeast Cochise County. The clear skies have allowed
temperatures to drop to freezing or a few degrees above freezing
south and east of Tucson. Douglas is the only exception where the
lingering cloud cover has kept temps in the 40s. Temperatures will
continue to cool leading to lows in the low 20s to freezing.
Expect similar low temperatures Friday morning. A Freeze Warning
is in place for areas south and east of Tucson this morning and
Friday morning. Tucson will see lows this morning and Friday
morning in the mid 30s with some low lying areas briefly seeing
temperatures around freezing.

Today the upper level low slowly moves south into northern Graham
and Greenlee County then moves east into New Mexico tonight. There
will be just enough moisture for the low to tap into to lead to
isolated light rain and high elevation snow showers northeast of
Safford. Rain and snow amounts will be very light, generally just
a few hundredths and up to 2 inches of snow at the highest
elevations of the White Mountains. High temperatures will be
chilly, about 20 degrees below normal. Winds will also be breezy
mainly along the international border.

In the wake of the trough a ridge will move in leading to a warmup
this weekend into early next week. Temperatures return to normal
by Saturday, warming to above normal Sunday into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 08/12Z.
SCT-BKN Clouds 6k-12k agl from KSAD northeastward through the
evening and near KDUG this morning. Isolated -SHRA and mountain
-SHSN will be possible this afternoon from KSAD northeastward. Sfc
 winds west to northwest at 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts this
 afternoon and evening. The strongest winds will be at terminals
 along the international border. Winds subside after 08/03Z
 becoming variable less than 8 kts. Aviation discussion not
 updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Below normal temperatures remain through Friday
then warm to a few degrees above normal Sunday into early next
week. Minimum relative humidities through Friday will be in the
15 to 25 percent range in lower elevations and 25 to 35 percent in
the higher elevations. This weekend into early next week min RH
values generally 10-20 percent. A weather system will bring
breezy winds today along the international border and a chance for
valley rain and mountain snow northeast of Safford today. Thereafter
expect dry conditions.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM MST this morning for AZZ503-507>509.

Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM MST Friday for
AZZ503-507>509.

&&

$$

Hardin

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