084
FXUS65 KTWC 010815
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
115 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather with near normal high temperatures through
Wednesday. A weather system will bring cooler temperatures and a
chance of valley rain and mountain snow Wednesday night and
Thursday. Dry weather returns Friday, with high temperatures near
seasonable levels this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Very little change in the forecast in the short term,
with more significant changes in the Thursday/Friday time frame. The
large scale pattern has a fast moving disturbance currently over
south central Colorado which will move rapidly east into the plain
states later today. Weak shortwave ridging and northwest flow aloft
takes place Tuesday into early Wednesday. The next weather system
slides southeast through the Intermountain West and into the Four
Corners Wednesday night and Thursday. Shortwave ridging then takes
hold once again over the upcoming weekend.

Temperatures will be near seasonal averages through Wednesday under
dry northwesterly flow aloft. Highs will be in the upper 60s to
lower 70s from Tucson westward and in the mid to upper 60s across
the lower elevations of eastern Santa Cruz, Cochise, Graham and
Greenlee counties. Winds will be on increase Wednesday afternoon in
advance of the next system to affect the region, especially to the
southeast of Tucson. Expect southwest to west winds of 15-20 mph
with gusts to around 30 mph over portions of eastern Santa Cruz and
Cochise counties Wednesday afternoon.

While ensemble/deterministic models still point to troughing across
the southwestern United States in the Wednesday night into Friday
time frame, neither the trough depth nor the trajectory of the storm
system look quite as favorable as in previous days. The latest model
solutions have the highly amplified ridge of high pressure off the
California coast in the eastern Pacific closer to the coastline,
with the downstream affects being the upper low trajectory shifted
to a more easterly progressive track. We are still looking at below
normal high temperatures Thursday and Friday, with high temperatures
lowering 5-8 degrees versus Wednesday. Highs will be in the lower to
mid 60s from Tucson westward and in the upper 50s to lower 60s
across the lower elevations of eastern Santa Cruz, Cochise, Graham
and Greenlee counties. However, with a more eastward storm track,
precipitation chances will now mainly be confined to east of Tucson
and have diminished considerably. PoPs are now in the slight chance
category (10-20 percent) for all locations except in northern
Graham/Greenlee counties where they remain in the chance category
(30-40 percent). Precipitation amounts have also come down and will
be a couple of hundredths in the valleys and up to a tenth of an
inch in the eastern mountains. Snow levels will be around 7000 feet.

Low temperatures will be below freezing in the eastern valleys
Friday and Saturday mornings and potentially even in the mid to
upper 30s in the outlying areas surrounding the Tucson Metro. Dry
and warmer weather returns this weekend under weak ridging, as high
temperatures rebound to near seasonable levels.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 02/12Z.
FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru the forecast period. SFC wind 12
kts or less thru the valid period, favoring a WLY/NWLY direction
during the afternoon/early evening hours and variable in direction
at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and near normal high temperatures are
expected through Wednesday. There will be a chance of precipitation
Wednesday night and Thursday as a storm system moves to our north,
although precipitation amounts will be on the light side. High
temperatures lower to below normal levels Thursday and Friday and
then rebound to near normal over the upcoming weekend. Min RH values
will be in the 25-35 percent range through Wednesday, increasing to
35-45 percent Thursday and Friday. 20-foot sustained winds of 15 mph
or less are expected through Tuesday, with elevated southwest to
west winds Wednesday, especially southeast of Tucson. Wind speeds of
15-20 mph and gusts to around 30 mph are expected over portions of
eastern Santa Cruz and Cochise counties Wednesday afternoon. Lighter
winds return Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

ZELL

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