252
FXUS65 KTWC 061017
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
317 AM MST Sun Oct 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Unseasonably hot temperatures and dry conditions will
continue, with daily highs in Tucson ranging from 100 to 104 the
first half of the week. A gradual cooling trend through the rest
of the week, but remaining well above seasonal normals.

&&

.DISCUSSION...With the storm track remaining well north and a very
weak southern branch split, broad high pressure will continue to
dominate the desert southwest. That means more record highs and
generally dry lower levels.

A weak split will top off the ridge late in the new week, with
high pressure slowly retreating southward. Ensemble mean height
anomalies are still suggesting a weak low dirtying up the mean
ridge position near our area days 6-10. This should continue to
drive a slow cooling trend to take the edge off the heat and could
bring a little moisture for a few showers around mid month.
Either way, we should continue to see October on a path toward
well above average temperatures as we see only weak split energy
instead of stronger weather system trajectories migrate southward.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 07/12Z.
SKC to FEW-SCT clouds 7k to 10k ft AGL. SFC winds ELY/SELY less
than 10 kts overnight, with WLY/NWLY winds less than 12 kts
in the afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions continue through at least most of
the week. Easterly to southeasterly 20 ft winds will increase to
10 to 15 mph the first half of the week. Min RHs remain 5-15
percent for the lower elevations and low to mid 20s for the
higher elevations.

&&


.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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