767
FXUS65 KTWC 040849
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
149 AM MST Mon Aug 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Very hot weather will continue this week with high
temperatures near monthly August records for some locales Wednesday
and Thursday. Dry conditions prevail today, then a very low grade
monsoon pattern returns with slight chances of precipitation Tuesday
through Thursday mainly along the International border south to
southwest of Tucson. Precipitation chances then continue to increase
across the rest of southeast Arizona Friday into the weekend.
.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Mostly clear skies this morning with just a few high
level clouds streaming north from Sonora. The mid/upper level high
remains over SE Arizona today and with limited moisture
availability, there are no mentionable PoPs with the closest
opportunity being around Nogales at around 10 percent later this
afternoon. The high will nudge slightly eastward into NM Tuesday
through Thursday but peak in strength as it does so. This will
result in continued very hot temperatures with highs peaking on
Wednesday and Thursday. More info on that in the climate section
below. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through Friday.
Otherwise, a slight uptick in moisture Tuesday through Thursday
mainly south to southwest of Tucson will result in a slight chance
(10-20%) of showers and thunderstorms mainly along the Int`l border
from SW Cochise County westward through Santa Cruz County into south
central Pima County. The high will gradually weaken Friday into the
weekend with ensembles indicating moisture increasing from Sonora
and the Gulf of California resulting in an expansion of
precipitation chances (~20-40% range) for most of southeast Arizona
Friday and the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 05/12Z.
SKC-SCT clouds above 20k ft AGL mainly through 04/18Z, then SCT
clouds 10-15k ft thru 05/04Z AGL mainly impacting KOLS terminal. Sfc
winds mainly 8 kts or less and variable thru 04/18Z, then becoming
WLY/NWLY at 8-10 kts with a few higher gusts. Winds become light and
variable again aft 05/03Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry weather and light winds will continue today,
with very hot temperatures this week. Temperatures will continue to
rise and peak at 8 to 14 degrees above normal Wednesday and
Thursday.  A return to a very low grade monsoon pattern starts
Tuesday through Thursday, mainly along the International border
south to southwest of Tucson, then expands to the rest of southeast
Arizona by Friday and the weekend as more typical monsoon
precipitation chances return. Min RH values areawide will continue
around 8 to 15 percent through Thursday then 15 to 25 percent
starting Friday. Mountain readings climb into the lower 30 percent
range Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...All-time August record highs including date and
forecast highs for Wednesday and Thursday.
                                             WED FCST   THU FCST
Ajo                 118 on August 28, 2023     114         114
Organ Pipe Cactus   116 on August  5, 1995     114         112
Picacho Peak        114 on August 28, 1998     113         114
Tucson Intl airport 112 on August  1, 1993     112         112
Safford (town)      110 on August 16, 2024     109         109
Willcox             108 on August  1, 2020     105         104
Nogales (town)      107 on August  5, 2023     105         104
Douglas airport     106 on August  5, 2023     104         103
Sierra Vista        105 on August  6, 2023     102         101

DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SELECT CITIES THIS WEEK.

DATE                         Aug 04           Aug 05           Aug 06
                          FCST RCD/YR      FCST RCD/YR      FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT       108 109/2023     109 110/2023     112 109/2018
AJO                       109 115/1921     111 114/1969     114 113/2019
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS         108 114/1998     110 116/1995     114 113/1995
PICACHO PEAK              110 113/1995     111 113/1995     113 113/1995
SAFFORD AG STATION        106 107/2024     107 110/2023     109 108/1995
SIERRA VISTA FD            99 102/1995     100 103/2023     102 105/2023
TOMBSTONE                  99 106/1995     101 103/1995     103 104/2023
WILLCOX                   102 105/1944     103 105/2018     105 107/2023


DATE                         Aug 07           Aug 08
                          FCST RCD/YR      FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT       112 108/1995     108 108/2012
AJO                       114 114/2018     107 112/2001
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS         112 113/1995     105 113/1995
PICACHO PEAK              114 113/1995     110 110/1995
SAFFORD AG STATION        109 106/2018     107 106/1995
SIERRA VISTA FD           101 101/2018      99  99/2012
TOMBSTONE                 102 103/2018     100 102/1995
WILLCOX                   104 106/2018     102 106/2012

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Friday for AZZ501>507-509.

Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM MST Friday for
AZZ508.

&&

$$


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