613
FXUS65 KTWC 072147
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
247 PM MST Fri Feb 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Unseasonably warm temperatures through this weekend
will gradually cool next week as a series of weather systems push
across the area. Not expecting much precipitation with any of
next weeks systems.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Warm temperatures of this week will continue through
the weekend with most locals topping off 8 to 18 degrees above
early February norms.

Temperatures cooling next week as a series of weather systems
move across the area with the coolest day being Wednesday where
highs are forecast to be 5-10 degrees below normal. The first
system moves across the area on Monday, bringing an increase in
mid-level moisture along with gusty winds which will continue
into Tuesday. Check fire weather section below. With most of the
moisture in the mid-levels and the low-levels on the dry side,
will see mostly virga but can`t rule out a sprinkle in the
mountains. System number 2 moves through on Wednesday with a
10-30% chance of light precipitation. Next week ends with system
#3 moving through the area potentially bringing a better chance
(20-50%) of preciptation. Plenty of uncertainty with timing,
moisture and PoPs with system #3, thus confidence is low.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 09/00Z.
SCT cirrus clouds AOA 20 kft AGL thru much of valid pd. SFC winds
W/NW 5-10 kts with lcl gusts to 20 kts until 08/03z then terrain
driven less than 10 kts thru 08/18z, then W/NW 5-10 kts thru end
of valid pd. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Temperatures will remain well above normal for
early February through this weekend with minimum relative humidity
values of 8 to 14 percent. A more active weather pattern next week
with weather systems moving through the area on Monday, Wednesday
and Friday. The Monday system will be mostly dry but will bring
gusty winds to the area both Monday and Tuesday. There is the
potential for near critical fire weather conditions east and
southeast of Tucson both days. The systems on Wednesday and Friday
will bring better chance of precipitation to the area although
there is uncertainty on how much moisture will be associated with
these two systems.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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