Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
930 FXUS65 KTWC 010331 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 831 PM MST Sun Jun 30 2024 .UPDATE... As convection has ended across southeastern Arizona and the gust front from earlier convection has pushed into Maricopa county, the Blowing Dust Advisory and Flood Watch have both been cancelled. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 121 PM MST Sun Jun 30 2024/ .SYNOPSIS...Active monsoon pattern for the next 7 days will bring daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms will generate strong winds and locally heavy rainfall. && .DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery this afternoon is showing an MCV near Rocky Point with generally partly to mostly cloudy skies across much of southeast Arizona. The clouds held on a bit more than expected through the midday hours so that has certainly slowed the warming and destabilization process. Where skies have cleared out for sufficient time, we`re seeing thunderstorms from in the last hour across portions of Graham/Greenlee/Cochise Counties. Another mid level disturbance is quickly approaching from the east-southeast and that will help aid in deeper layer lift this afternoon into the evening hours. MLCAPE values will increase to around 1000-1500 J/KG as CIN diminishes over the next hour or two. This will be enough to result in convective development and the latest HRRR and UofA WRF model runs are in agreement on this. Given the anomalously high moisture levels, flash flooding will be a concern along with strong and gusty outflow winds as DCAPE values range from about 800-1200 J/KG across our forecast area. These gusty outflow winds may produce a large area of blowing dust to the NW of Tucson. A Blowing Dust Advisory is in place for this and any short fuse intense dust storms will be covered with Dust Storm Warnings if needed. Convective activity may persist well into the evening hours, especially from Tucson westward. Abundant moisture remains in place for Monday, though just how much activity we see will partially be dependent on what takes place today/tonight. The flow does become a bit more southwesterly on Monday. The moisture will remain with us through about Wednesday with PWAT values ranging from about 1.4 inches to 1.7 inches across the forecast area to keep the active period ongoing. Thereafter, the ensembles are showing the mid/upper high reconsolidating to our north/northwest. This will change the flow to become more northeasterly. However, some drier air will also start filtering in from the north and keep the best chances for daily showers and thunderstorms from Tucson south and eastward. && .AVIATION...Valid through 02/00Z. SCT-BKN clouds at 8-12k ft AGL thru the fcst period. Scattered- numerous SHRA/TSRA 30/20Z-01-04Z, then becoming isolated -SHRA/-TSRA overnight. Another round of SCT -SHRA/-TSRA aft 01/18Z thru the end of the fcst period. Expect brief MVFR conds nr storms. SFC winds 10 kts or less with the occasional afternoon gusts, except stronger due to gusty outflows from storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Relatively deep moisture will stick around through the forecast period. Scattered ton numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. The upcoming week will see daily chances of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Strong and erratic gusty winds of 40 mph or higher can be expected with any storm development, along with locally brief heavy rainfall. Outside of thunderstorm winds, 20-foot winds will generally be 15 mph or less each afternoon with the occasional gust of 20 mph. Min RHs will generally be around 20% in the valleys and 30s in the mountains with good overnight recoveries. && && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Update...Edwards Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson