990
FXUS65 KTWC 062238
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
338 PM MST Thu Mar 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A weather system will move across the area today and
Friday bringing breezy to windy southwest winds, cooler
temperatures, and better precipitation chances, especially on
Friday. The upcoming weekend looks dry with warmer temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today`s immediate forecast focus has been centered
on blustery conditions across the forecast area as a cold front has
been making its way across southeast Arizona. A Wind Advisory is in
effect through 6 pm this evening for Cochise county where wind gusts
of 35 to 45 mph are ongoing. Localized gusts to 50 mph cannot be
ruled out in higher terrain areas. The gusty winds may also result
in a few areas of blowing dust and brief reductions in visibility in
dust prone areas along I-10 in eastern Cochise county.

A band of clouds and very light precipitation associated with the
cold frontal band quickly made its way through the area late this
morning. Precipitation chances have dropped off substantially this
afternoon to below 10 percent across the majority of southeast
Arizona with lingering chances to the north and east of Tucson.

After midnight, precipitation chances increase again areawide
associated with another reinforcing cold frontal band which is
expected to pass through the area tomorrow morning. Gusty winds will
be possible again tomorrow but remaining shy of needing to hoist any
headlines. The bigger focus for tomorrow will be on chances for
accumulating mountain snow and valley rain.

Tomorrow a Winter Weather Advisory will go into effect from 6 am to
5 pm for elevations above 6000 feet in the Catalina, Rincon,
Pinaleno, Galiuro, and White Mountains. Snow levels will drop
between 4000 to 5000 feet by Friday afternoon; however, the bulk of
the precipitation is expected to occur between 5 am and Noon. Thus,
the most likely outcome points toward accumulations of 5 to 11
inches even though light snow may continue into Friday evening.

Much needed valley rainfall is also expected with the highest
amounts forecast to occur across southeast Pinal county where there
is a 30 to 40 percent chance of exceeding 0.50 inches. Elsewhere,
rain totals will range between 0.10 inches and 0.25 inches.

Saturday morning will be rather chilly with a very small chance
(around 5 percent) of temperatures locally reaching freezing in the
Tucson Metro. There will be a slight chance (10-20 percent) for
lingering precipitation along the Arizona/New Mexico border. High
temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than Friday as ridging
starts to move back into the area.

Sunday temperatures will be 8 to 12 degrees warmer with high
temperatures rebounding to near normal across the area. Monday,
temperatures warm to slightly above normal ahead of another system
moving off the Pacific progresses inland on Tuesday and Wednesday
bringing additional chances for precipitation and gusty winds.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 08/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds at 5k-8k ft AGL with conditions gradually clearing
through 07/06Z becoming BKN-OVC again by 07/12Z. Periods of SHRA and
mountain SHSN likely tomorrow with the best chances for moderate to
heavy precipitation between 07/12Z and 07/18Z. SFC winds SWLY this
afternoon at 17-22 kts with a few gusts to 30 kts decreasing after
07/03Z to 9-13 kts. SFC winds SWLY again tomorrow picking up after
07/14Z at 17-22 kts and a few gusts up to 30 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A storm system will continue moving into the region
today into early Saturday. This system will result in a chance of
valley rain and mountain snow across southeast Arizona. The bulk of
the precipitation will take place tomorrow between 5 am and noon.
Total rainfall amounts in the valleys will generally be between 0.10
and 0.25 inches, with 5-11 inches of snowfall above 6k feet. This
system will bring much cooler temperatures, with highs 2-5 degrees
below normal today, 15-20 degrees below normal Friday and then 9-13
degrees below normal on Saturday. Strong southwest winds of 20-30
mph and gusts to 45-50 mph will continue this afternoon. However,
Min RH values will remain above critical thresholds. Breezy to
locally windy southwest to west winds will continue on Friday, with
even higher RH values as additional moisture moves into southeast
Arizona. There will be a slight chance of lingering precipitation
Saturday, with dry and warmer conditions returning Sunday and
Monday. The models show a couple of systems will move across Arizona
next week, one on Tuesday and another next Thursday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for AZZ507-508-512-513.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 5 PM MST Friday for AZZ510-
511-514.

&&

$$

DVS

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