818
FXUS65 KTWC 110950
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
250 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry weather persists over the next seven
days with well above normal temperatures each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue across
SE Arizona for the next 10 days. A few locals will be approaching
record highs through Saturday. Check climate section below. No
significant precipitation expected for the next 14 days.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 12/12Z.
SKC. SFC winds vrbl and terrain driven less than 10 kts thru
11/17z and then again after 12/04z. At other times, SFC winds
WLY/NWLY 8-12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER....Dry conditions are expected the next 7 days
along with well above normal high temperatures. 20-foot winds
will generally be 15 mph or less and terrain driven throughout
the week. Minimum RH values in the valleys and mountains 16-26
percent with good overnight recoveries at least 35 percent in
the mountains and over 45 percent in the valleys for the week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record or near record high temperatures for December 11-13

Date                      Dec 11         Dec 12        Dec 13
                       FCST RCD/YR    FCST RCD/YR    FCST RCD/YR
Tucson Intl Airport     80 83/1939     79 79/2004     79 84/2010
Ajo                     80 85/1950     81 83/1995     80 82/1995
Organ Pipe Cactus       82 83/1995     82 83/2010     82 82/2010
Nogales Airport         78 78/2023     78 81/2010     78 81/2010

NBM probabilities to tie or break record highs for December 11-13

Date                     Dec 11          Dec 12        Dec 13
                        TIE/BREAK       TIE/BREAK     TIE/BREAK
Tucson Intl Airport       2%/ 0%         40%/22%        0%/ 0%
Ajo                       0%/ 0%          8%/ 2%       11%/ 7%
Organ Pipe Cactus        29%/17%         40%/20%       63%/45%
Nogales Airport          53%/49%          3%/ 0%        0%/ 0%

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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