409
FXUS65 KTWC 032104
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
204 PM MST Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Expect cooler than normal temperatures into the
weekend with a slight chance for rain this evening for parts of
Pima, Pinal, and Santa Cruz Counties. Chances will be better
tomorrow with light valley rain and mountain snow during the
afternoon and evening continuing east of Tucson Saturday. Next
week a strong ridge of high pressure will move into the area. This
will bring a significant warm-up in afternoon temperatures
begining late this weekend and persisting through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Longwave troughing will be in place over the next
couple of days with a strong ridge centered just off the West
Coast. This trough will keep temperatures 10-15 degrees below
normal today and Friday and also bring a chance for precipitation
this evening into Friday. This evening rain chances are on the
lighter side with the 03/12Z HREF just showing weak isolated
showers over portions of Pinal, Pima, and Santa Cruz Counties.
Radar already shows a few light echos over the Tohono O`Odham
Nation and Pinal County. Chances for showers and coverage
increases Friday morning into the afternoon as the core of the
low moves through. PoPs are generally 30-60 percent with the best
chances south and east of Tucson and in the White Mountains.
However moisture values are only around normal or slightly below
normal. Because of this QPF is low, generally less than 0.1" in
the valleys and up to 0.25" in the mountains through Friday night.
Saturday rain chances linger mainly east of Tucson with the best
chances in the White Mountains. Snow levels will be around 5500
feet with meaningful accumulation only expected above 7000 feet.
Snow totals Friday into Saturday in the Sky Islands will be light,
generally up to an inch, and 2"-5" in the White Mountains.

This weekend the ridge moves onshore and pushes the low east out
of the region. This will lead to dry conditions after Saturday and
a quick warmup. Highs this weekend will be 5-10 degrees below
normal, warming to around normal Monday, then 7-12 degrees above
normal by the middle of next week. Beyond Wednesday the Tucson
airport will be flirting with 100 degrees with the best chances
looking to be Friday. Current NBM probabilities for 100 degrees
are around 40 percent for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 05/00Z.
Expect SCT-BKN clouds between 6k-10k ft AGL through much of the
valid period. Isold -SHRA developing this afternoon into the
evening over portions of Pima, Pinal, and Santa Cruz Counties.
Friday morning into the afternoon -SHRA activity expands to cover
most of southeast Arizona, but impact to TAF sites will be
minimal. Sfc winds will be out of the southwest 8-14 kts gusting
to 20 kts through 04/02Z becoming variable overnight. Winds
increase again Friday afternoon out of the northwest 8-12 kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A weather system will slowly move across the state
through Saturday, bringing a chance of light precipitation tonight
into Friday with lingering shower chances far eastern areas on
Saturday. Thereafter, a strong ridge of high pressure will move
into the area bringing with it a significant warm-up in afternoon
temperatures begining this weekend and persisting through next
week. Daily SFC winds will see afternoon gustiness.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Hardin

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