Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
418 FXUS65 KTWC 101000 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 300 AM MST Sun Aug 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Thunderstorm chances are forecast each afternoon and evening through the coming week, though there will be day to day variability in these chances. High temperatures will generally remain above normal through the coming week. && .DISCUSSION...Radar was showing isolated showers and thunderstorms north of Tucson. These will continue to gradually diminish over through sunrise. Last nights northern Sonora MCS sent a large outflow boundary north and west with gusts up to 45 mph at Rocky Point and initiated a gulf surge with Yuma radar showing southerly winds 30-40 knots up to 3000 feet with Yuma`s dewpoint jumping into the mid 70s. Also of interest in radar and infrared satellite imagery showed a possible weak MCV across the Intl border south of Sierra Vista. For today: With tail end of trof moving through the Rockies, the steering flow of scattered thunderstorms today will be out of the N/NW. Isolated heavy rainers and strong gusty winds, especially south and east of Tucson. Monday: Upper high centered near Reno, the mid-level flow will be out of the N keeping best chances of afternoon/evening convection mainly east and south of Tucson. The remainder of the new week will see daily storm chances with day-to-day variability in areal coverage of storms. Above normal high temperatures will continue for the next 7 days. && .AVIATION...Valid through 11/12Z Isolated showers/storms diminishing this morning, then redeveloping this afternoon and becoming scattered in areal coverage. Gusty winds up to 45 kts possible near thunderstorms. Otherwise surface winds away from outflows mostly less than 15 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will remain several degrees above normal through the coming week. Daily chances for thunderstorms and wetting rains through the week with daily variability in coverage and intensity. Min RHs will generally be around 14-22 percent in the lower elevations and 20-30 percent in the mountains. Winds will generally be less than 15 mph with typical afternoon gusts up to 20 mph into the new week, though stronger northwesterly winds possible in the Gila River Valley through early this coming week with afternoon gusts up to 35 mph. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson