Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Arkansas-Red Basin RFC
Issued by NWS Arkansas-Red Basin RFC
627
FGUS64 KTUA 271209
ESGTUA
Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service, ABRFC, Tulsa, Oklahoma
1120 AM CST, Wednesday, February 26, 2025
COLORADO
-- ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN--
The Rocky Mountains
The potential for flood conditions is near normal this spring across the Arkansas River Basin in Colorado. Flooding at most forecast points in the Colorado Rocky Mountains is driven by rapid snowpack runoff or isolated, high-intensity rainfall.
Snowpack for the entire basin is below normal. Snowpack is slightly above normal at the upper reaches of the Arkansas River. Snowpack is well below normal along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southern Colorado. As measured at high altitude SNOTEL monitoring stations, the mountains of the Arkansas River basin have received approximately 100 percent-of-median precipitation and have accumulated 66 percent-of-median snowpack this water year. A more detailed table is included below.
S N O W - P R E C I P I T A T I O N U P D A T E
Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites
As of Wednesday: February 26, 2025
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BASIN ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT TOTAL PRECIPITATION
Data Site Name (Ft) % %
Current Median Median Current Median Median
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ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN
APISHAPA 10027 2.3 6.1 38 11.2 9.2 122
BRUMLEY 10594 8.3 8.2 101 9.3 10.0 93
FREMONT PASS 11326 13.2 12.2 108 13.4 12.0 112
GLEN COVE 11391 3.5 3.2 109 9.2 7.2 128
MEDANO PASS 9668 2.5 5.5 45 8.2 7.4 111
NORTH COSTILLA 10598 0.2 6.2 3 10.0 9.6 104
PORPHYRY CREEK 10788 14.3 11.8 121 15.0 11.0 136
SOUTH COLONY 10868 9.1 13.7 66 11.0 15.6 71
WHISKEY CK 10290 4.1 8.4 49 9.4 11.4 82
----- -----
Basin wide percent-of-median 66 100
Units = inches for the Current and Average Snow Water Equivalent
and Total Precipitation values
At the end of January, mountain reservoirs in the Arkansas River Basin (Turquoise, Twin Lakes, Pueblo) were at 65 percent of capacity, 114 percent of median storage, and 101 percent of last year`s storage.
Current soil moisture estimates from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) are near normal (30-70th percentile) in the Upper Arkansas River valley.
The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 18, 2025 indicates that there are currently no drought conditions across a majority of the Arkansas River Basin. There is a small area of Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions in the Sangre De Cristo mountians near the New Mexico border. The most recent US Seasonal Drought Outlook issued February 20, 2025 calls for an increase in drought conditions over the next 3 months along the Sangre De Cristo mountains in Southern Colorado.
The most recent CPC outlook for the next 3 months (MAR-APR-MAY) indicates an increased chance of above normal temperatures across much of Southern Colorado. The precipitation outlook for the same period indicates significantly increased chances of below normal precipitation in the Arkansas River Basin of Colorado.
The Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) model does not indicate a greater than 50 percent chance of flooding at any forecast point on the headwaters of the Arkansas River above Pueblo. The table below contains a summary of some potential maximum stages from the model output.
Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
As of Wednesday: February 26, 2025
Feb 26 - Jun 26 50% Exceedence
Weekly
Flood 50% exceedence 50% exceedence
Station Stage(ft) Maximum Stage (ft) Maximum Stage (ft)
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Leadville 9.0 6.7 6.3
Salida 8.0 4.3 4.0
Wellsville 9.0 6.2 5.8
Parkdale 9.0 5.0 4.7
Canon City 10.0 8.0 7.7
Portland 9.0 5.1 4.8
Pueblo 8.0 5.6 5.2
Plains
The potential for flood conditions is near normal this spring. Normal conditions for southeastern Colorado reflect a low probability of flooding. Most flooding in this area is directly related to specific heavy precipitation events.
The Arkansas River is currently flowing at near normal levels downstream from Pueblo Reservoir. Fountain Creek is flowing at near to above normal levels. The Purgatoire River is flowing at near to below normal levels.
Reservoir storage below Pueblo (Meredith, Trinidad, and John Martin) at the end of January was at 12 percent of capacity, 91 percent of median storage, and 102 percent of last year`s storage.
Current Climate Prediction Center (CPC) soil moisture estimates for the area indicate normal to above normal soil conditions (30-70th percentile, 70-90th percentile) in the plains of southeastern Colorado.
The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 18, 2025 indicates that there are currently no drought conditions across much of the plains of Southeast Colorado. There are isolated spots of Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions near the New Mexico border. The most recent US Seasonal Drought Outlook issued February 20, 2025 calls for an increase in drought conditions over the next 3 months across the plains of Southeast Colorado.
The table below presents some southeastern Colorado forecast points where the ESP model indicated a greater than 10% chance of minor flooding over the next 90 days.
Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
As of Wednesday: February 26, 2025
Fcst Point % Probability % Probability % Probability
Station Minor Flooding Moderate Flooding Major Flooding
ID
ADLC2 40 4 Not Expected
LXHC2 52 30 3
LAPC2 18 9 3
NPTC2 29 5 3
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* This, and additional Water Supply Information, *
* can be found on our Web Page at: *
* *
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SOUTHERN KANSAS
The potential for flood conditions in southern Kansas is near normal this spring. Most flooding in this area is directly related to specific heavy precipitation events.
Precipitation anomalies during the last 90 days have been significantly below normal across much of southern Kansas. Conditions have been very dry across Southwest Kansas with some areas seeing less than 25% of their normal precipitation during the last 90 days. Conditions were slightly better across South-Central and Southeast Kansas, where anomalies were 25%-75% of normal during the past 90 days.
Streamflows are near to below normal on the Arkansas River. Flows are near normal on the Neosho River but below normal on the Verdigris River in southeastern Kansas.
Reservoir storage in southern Kansas is slightly below normal. U.S. Corps of Engineers data indicate that Corps reservoirs in southern Kansas currently have near 100 percent of their flood-control storage available.
Current Climate Prediction Center (CPC) soil moisture estimates indicate above normal soil moisture in parts of southwestern Kansas near the Colorado and Oklahoma borders. Estimates are above the 70th percentile in this area. Elsewhere across Southern Kansas, soil moisture is near normal (30-70th percentile) across most of the area. However, soil moisture percentiles drop below the 30th percentile near the missouri border.
The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 18, 2025 indicates Moderate Drought (D1) and Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions across parts of southern Kansas. The worst areas are in Barton and Rush Counties in Central Kansas and in Bourbon and Crawford Counties in Southeast Kansas. The US Seasonal Drought Outlook issued February 20, 2025 calls for the drought to intensify across Southwest Kansas. Drought conditions are expected to persist in Central Kansas, and improve over Southeast Kansas over the next 3 months.
The most recent Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlook for the next 3 months (MAR-APR-MAY) indicates equal chances for above, near, or below normal temperatures across Kansas. The CPC outlook indicates significantly increased chances of below normal precipitation across Western Kansas. The outlook also calls for equal chances of above, near, or below normal precipitation across Eastern Kansas during the same period.
The table below presents some southern Kansas forecast points where the ESP model indicated a greater than 10% chance of minor flooding over the next 90 days.
Select Points in Southern Kansas
Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
As of Tuesday, February 11, 2025
Fcst. PointWFO% Probability % Probability % Probability
StationMinor Flooding Moderate Flooding Major Flooding
ID
ENWK1 DDC 11 Not Expected Not Expected
AGSK1 ICT 11 4 Not Expected
ARCK1 ICT 15 6 Not Expected
ATOK1 ICT 20 8 Not Expected
CBNK1 ICT 20 Not Expected Not Expected
CFVK1 ICT 16 4 Not Expected
CNUK1 ICT 33 19 6
COWK1 ICT 11 Not Expected Not Expected
CTWK1 ICT 18 10 Not Expected
EREK1 ICT 33 28 15
FLRK1 ICT 19 4 Not Expected
FRNK1 ICT 19 10 Not Expected
HTCK1 ICT 26 14 Not Expected
IDPK1 ICT 22 Not Expected Not Expected
IOLK1 ICT 20 Not Expected Not Expected
OSWK1 ICT 42 32 6
PLYK1 ICT 16 9 Not Expected
PPFK1 ICT 47 30 Not Expected
TOWK1 ICT 11 8 3
WELK1 ICT 29 20 7
WFDK1 ICT 13 8 Not Expected
EMPK1 TOP 27 12 Not Expected
EPRK1 TOP 17 16 Not Expected
LRYK1 TOP 13 13 Not Expected
NEOK1 TOP 22 20 Not Expected
*******************************************************
* *
* This, and additional Water Supply Information, *
* can be found on our Web Page at: *
* *
* www.weather.gov/abrfc/water_supply *
* *
*******************************************************
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
The potential for flood conditions in southwestern Missouri is near normal this spring. Most flooding in this area is related to specific heavy rainfall events.
Precipitation for the last 90 days across southwestern Missouri has been below normal with some areas less than 50% of normal. Streamflows are near to below normal. Soil moisture is below normal (10-30th percentile).
The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 18, 2025 indicates Abnormally Dry (D0) and Moderate Drought (D1) conditions across Southwest Missouri. The US Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for this to improve over the next 3 months.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlook for the next 3 months (MAR-APR-MAY) indicates equal chances of above, below, or near normal temperatures across southwestern Missouri. The outlook also indicates equal chances of above, near, or below normal precipitation over the same period.
The table below presents some southwestern Missouri forecast points where the ESP model indicated a greater than 10 percent chance of minor flooding over the next 90 days.
Select Points in Southwest Missouri
Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
As of Tuesday: March 12, 2024
Fcst. Point% Probability % Probability % Probability
StationMinor Flooding Moderate Flooding Major Flooding
ID
CHTM7 30 8 Not Expected
JOPM7 13 4 Not Expected
WCOM7 37 Not Expected Not Expected
BXTK1 32 9 Not Expected
*******************************************************
* *
* This, and additional Water Supply Information, *
* can be found on our Web Page at: *
* *
* www.weather.gov/abrfc/water_supply *
* *
*******************************************************
Thanks to the USGS for streamflow condition data, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for reservoir condition data, the Natural Resource Conservation Service for SNOTEL data, and the Climate Prediction Center for the precipitation and temperature outlooks, the soil moisture deficits, and the Drought Outlook.
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