129
FXUS64 KTSA 241107
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
607 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

 - Cold front moves into the region Sunday, signaling the start of
   a weather pattern change and an active week ahead.

 - Medium to high rain chances (40-80%) enter the forecast Sunday night
   through much of the upcoming week with an increasing heavy
   rain threat.

 - Well below normal temperatures forecast for the last week of
   August.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Well defined closed low pressure system, currently north of the
Great Lakes region, was providing a longwave trof axis across the
Plains and Eastern CONUS early Sunday morning. This has created
upper level northwesterly flow over the Plains as the ridge of high
pressure was confined to much of the Western CONUS. Within the upper
level flow, an embedded shortwave to the parent closed low system
was dropping southeast over the Northern Plains. Meanwhile, at the
surface, high pressure was common across the Plains with a synoptic
cold front extending from the closed low through the Midwest and
into southern Kansas.

Surface high pressure will continue to push the cold front
south/southeast and is expected to make it into far northeast
Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas around sunrise Sunday morning.
This boundary is forecast to slowly make it near Interstate 40
Sunday afternoon, with the majority of surface high pressure
remaining over the Central Plains. This will allow for slightly
drier air and afternoon temps in the upper 80s to low 90s north of I-
40, while mid 90s south of I-40 are forecast.

The shortwave mentioned above is also expected to push through the
region during the day Sunday. At this time, there is potential for
showers and storms developing on the western periphery of the
surface high as the wave pushes through the Plains. However, the
majority of any development should remain west of the CWA, and as
such will keep afternoon PoPs below mentionable criteria. Any
development that may move into northeast Oklahoma should weaken
Sunday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Attention turns to Sunday night into Monday with a secondary
shortwave coming out of the Mountain West and dropping southeast
into the region within the upper level northwesterly flow. As this
disturbance moves into the region and interacts with lingering
elevated frontogenetic forcing, rain showers are forecast to expand
in coverage from west to east late Sunday night through the day
Monday. Current thinking remains for the higher rain potentials are
likely across northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas during the
day Monday. Marginal elevated instability Monday will allow for
small chance for embedded thunder across portions of eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The greater threat will be heavy
rainfall as moisture advection ahead of the disturbance transports
precipitable water values in excess of 1.5" and locally approaching
2", which could increase localized flash flood concerns.

Showers and limited storm chances continue into Monday night and
increase again late Monday night into Tuesday with another shortwave
rounding the base of the longwave trof axis. This will help shift
the higher rain focus more into the southern half of the CWA for
Tuesday. Again, a heavy rain threat exists Tuesday. Latest model
solutions differ slightly on timing of precip exiting the CWA
Tuesday, and in response QPF amounts have come down some. The
mid/upper level shortwave is forecast to exit Tuesday evening with
rain chances beginning to taper off Tuesday night. At this time,
widespread 1-2 inches of rainfall with locally greater than 3.5
inches could develop before rain chances weaken Tuesday night.

A lull in precip chances still looks possible during the day
Wednesday as a 1026mb Canadian surface high pressure spreads over
the Plains in the wake of the departing shortwave Tuesday night.
However, this lull looks to be short-lived as another shortwave is
progged to move into/through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday night with increasing rain chances/low storm potentials.
Latest model solutions begin to differ beyond Friday, though still
suggest one more shortwave could push over the region during the
weekend.  In response, an additional multiple inch rainfall could
develop Thursday into the weekend, which again could increase flood
potentials especially if these late week rains are on top of the
heavy rain locations from early week.

From the multiple shortwaves and rounds of rain showers as well a
Canadian surface airmass moving into the Plains this week, well
below seasonal average temps are forecast for the CWA. These cooler
temps spread into the CWA Monday, especially over the northern half
of the CWA, and over all of the CWA through the week.  Forecasts
highs in the 70s and 80s remain probable, with the potential of even
lower highs depending on where the longer periods of heavy rains
develop.  Again, these cooler conditions are highly dependent on
cloud cover holding over the region and all the rain chances.  Any
breaks in the clouds could warm temps further into the 80s. Tuesday
across the northern portion of the CWA and Wednesday would have the
greater potential as rain chances look more limited. The below
seasonal average temps are forecast to continue into next weekend,
thus giving us an extended break from the heat that had been
observed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Mostly light north
to northeast winds will continue, with a few gusts to 15-20 kts
during the afternoon hours. Ceilings will gradually develop and
begin to lower Sunday evening, but remaining about 10 kft.
Ceilings will then lower to 4-6 kft Monday morning as rain
develops. Most areas will remain dry through tonight, but storm
activity is expected to pick up near dawn. Heavy rain and gusty
erratic winds will be most common.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  67  73  63 /   0  30  80  50
FSM   95  70  81  65 /   0  20  60  70
MLC   94  69  82  64 /   0  20  50  70
BVO   87  61  72  58 /  10  30  80  40
FYV   90  62  75  60 /   0  20  60  60
BYV   87  62  73  59 /   0  20  50  50
MKO   91  67  73  63 /   0  20  80  60
MIO   86  63  73  59 /   0  20  60  40
F10   92  65  74  63 /   0  20  70  60
HHW   94  72  90  68 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...06