930
FXUS64 KTSA 081758
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1258 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

   - Daily rain and storm chances will continue through the next week.
     The one drier day will be Thursday.

   - Limited severe potential today with locally damaging wind the primary
     threat. Also, a heavy rain threat will exist through this
     evening.

   - Afternoon heat indices will creep up into the 95-105F range
     each of the next few afternoons. The warmest days will be
     Thursday and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Deep tropical moisture remains entrenched across the area with
PWAT values above the 90th percentile (highest in SE Oklahoma and
NW Arkansas). Numerous showers and thunderstorms formed along a
boundary earlier north of I-40 and are steadily working south and
east. These showers and storms resulted in locally significant
rainfall and flooding in some areas earlier today. Showers and
storms will slowly move out of the area the next few hours.
However, they will remain capable of very heavy rainfall and may
result in additional flash flooding. A few of the stronger storms
could produce strong gusty winds. Isolated showers and storms may
redevelop across the north this evening or tonight based on CAM
guidance, but confidence in that is low given the convective
overturning that has been observed.

High temperatures today will reach the upper 80s to low 90s once
again. Given recent rains, heat indices will exceed 100 F in a
few places. Low temperatures will again fall into the low to mid
70s tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

The upper level trough axis will begin to shift east Wednesday.
There will still be sufficient moisture and instability, but forcing
will wain. As a result, showers and storms are still expected, but
coverage and intensity will be lower. The highest coverage will
focus on the southeast portions of the forecast area. Afternoon
highs will reach the low 90s with heat indices of 95-102F.

Thursday and much of Friday will be dry as brief shortwave ridging
builds in. Temperatures will rise a couple of degrees, with highs in
the low to mid 90s. Afternoon heat indices, compounded by elevated
dew points from recent rains, will reach 95-105F. Increased
southerly breeziness may offset some of the apparent heat.

Any break in the storm cycle will be brief as a trough digs into the
central Plains late Friday, with a secondary wave Saturday into
Sunday. With plentiful moisture returning to the area (PWAT near
or above 2") and good instability, showers and thunderstorms will
blossom. The most likely impact will be areas of very heavy
rainfall and the potential for flash flooding. Stronger storms
could also result in gusty winds. Limited wind shear will
generally keep the severe weather threat to a more minimal level.
Diffuse troughing will allow for daily storm chances going
through at least the middle of next week. High temperatures will
drop with the increased storm activity, generally in the mid to
upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Thunderstorms have developed over the last couple of hours in
response to the disturbance moving through the area. Impacts to
MLC and FSM have already occurred, with continued impacts expected
for FSM and potential for impacts at FYV later this morning.
Uncertainty exists as to whether this will make its way as far
north as XNA and ROG and depending on trends over the next 20
minutes or so, will either leave a mention out completely or
include a near term PROB30 at those two sites. The current
expectation is that this early development could suppress further
development until this afternoon and the TAFs have trended drier
late morning into early afternoon as a result.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  93  74  94 /  10  20  10   0
FSM   74  93  74  95 /  20  30  20  10
MLC   71  91  72  93 /  10  20  10   0
BVO   70  92  71  93 /  10  20  10   0
FYV   69  90  70  91 /  10  30  20  10
BYV   69  90  70  92 /  20  30  20  10
MKO   71  91  72  93 /  10  20  10   0
MIO   70  91  72  93 /  10  20  20   0
F10   71  91  72  93 /  10  20  10   0
HHW   71  90  71  93 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...22