988
FXUS64 KTSA 161716
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1216 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 244 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

  - Above normal temperatures return for the remainder of the work week.

  - A low chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight near
    the Kansas and Missouri border.

  - A more active weather pattern returns Friday into the weekend
    with multiple rounds of strong to severe storms and heavy rain expected.
    The heavy rains may lead to some flooding.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

A band of high-based showers and a few rumbles of thunder moved
across the region this morning and has since shifted east and
dissipated. Have removed PoPs and thunder mention for the
remainder of today. Aside from this, no major changes are planned
to the forecast for today. Mostly sunny skies and warmer
conditions as south winds have returned. Highs will top out from
the mid 70s NW AR to around 80 across E OK.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Warmer temperatures are on tap for today across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas as surface high pressure shifts east of the area
allowing southerly winds to increase.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible tonight near the
Kansas/Oklahoma border as the strengthening low level jet fuels any
thunderstorms that can develop near the dry line in northwest Oklahoma
this evening. There is the potential that these storms could be strong
to severe with hail the main concern.

The southerly winds increase on Thursday as will the temperatures in
advance of a cold front that is slated to work into the area on Friday.
Temperatures on Thursday are forecast to top out in the 80s across much
of the area.

The weather pattern becomes more active Friday and into the weekend as a
southwesterly flow aloft develops across the area as a slow moving surface frontal
boundary moves through the area. This will likely result in several rounds
of showers and storms across the area through Sunday before the main
upper level low moves out of the Southwest and into the Plains. The greatest
potential for severe weather will be with the initial thunderstorm development
near the frontal boundary Friday evening/night. Large hail and damaging winds
are expected to be the main concern. However, there will be a low tornado
potential with these initial storms. As we move into Saturday, heavy rain
will likely become more of a concern. 2 to 4 inches of rain will be common
with locally higher amounts possible. This could lead to flooding of low lying
areas.

Quieter weather is anticipated on Monday as high pressure builds into the region
in the wake of the weekend system.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

VFR conditions will prevail thru the period, with winds and LLWS
conditions being the main impacts. Gusty south winds at most of
the TAF sites today, subsiding some this evening, and then picking
back up tomorrow morning. A LLJ will yield LLWS conditions at all
sites overnight. There`s a low chance for showers and storms near
the KS and MO borders tonight, so a prob30 was maintained from
prev forecast for KBVO, KXNA and KROG. HREF cloud cover progs
suggest that low level moisture return may be sufficient enough
for some low cloud development and northward spread into the
region Thursday morning. Given low confidence in a cig at this
point, have elected to just put sct low cloud mention in the TAFs
at this time.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  86  67  80 /  10   0  10  30
FSM   59  85  65  84 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   63  84  66  82 /   0   0   0  20
BVO   59  87  64  78 /  20   0  10  30
FYV   58  82  63  80 /  10   0   0  30
BYV   59  81  66  81 /  20  10   0  20
MKO   62  83  66  80 /  10   0  10  30
MIO   60  82  67  78 /  30   0  10  40
F10   64  85  67  81 /  10   0  10  30
HHW   61  81  65  82 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...30