788
FXUS64 KTSA 081940
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
140 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 140 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

 - Winter weather will impact the region Thursday thru Friday
   morning. Minor to moderate impacts to travel are expected, with
   the largest impact from SE OK into NW AR where a Winter Storm
   Warning is now in effect.

 - An extended quiet weather period will follow the upcoming storm
   with temperatures warming some this weekend into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 140 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

It will be the calm before the storm tonight, with mostly clear
skies for much of the night. Clouds increase toward daybreak.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 140 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

The main focus continues to be on Thursday into Friday, as a pair
of storm systems, one over the Baja and another diving southeast
over MT attm, merge over the central/southern Plains.
Precipitation will begin to spread into eastern OK as soon as
tomorrow morning and into western AR by early afternoon. The
precip could start off as a mix of sleet and snow before changing
over to all snow most areas as the column wetbulbs down.
Uncertainties in the precip type forecast increase down near the
Red River, especially during the afternoon and evening when some
models show the potential for a warm nose up into far SE OK. Will
maintain a mix of sleet and snow down there thru early evening.
There is some concern that sleet mixing in will pull back on snow
amounts, however if more sleet occurs it will be close to warning
criteria (.5") anyway. A broad swath of heavier precip from the
warm conveyor ahead of the southern system will overspread areas
south and east of I-44 during the afternoon and into the night,
with most of this in the form of snow. The heaviest snow rates (on
the order of 1 to 2 inches per hour) are most likely to occur
somewhere over far SE OK, NE TX or the ArkLaTex into west-central
and SW AR within the warm conveyor and where it`s just cold enough
to support snow. Based on the latest QPF and precip type
forecast, the winter storm watch will be upgraded to a warning
with a few counties added in NW AR to match neighboring offices.
Expect moderate travel impact within this zone, with potential for
roads to be closed/shut down for a time.

Farther to the north and west, a broad swath of light to moderate
snow is forecast, likely from the approaching northern system.
There are hints that a band of heavier snow could develop, but
it`s unclear whether this will be over the forecast area or to the
northwest. With at least an inch or two forecast across NE OK, a
winter weather advisory will be issued for minor travel impact.

It`s important to stress that several uncertainties still exist in
this forecast: How the two pieces of energy will phase, the
placement of the heavier QPF axis or axes, and precip type in the
south. This is typical of winter weather forecasts.

The good news is that the weather will quiet down for many days in
the wake of this storm with a gradual warming trend. Depending on
how the snow is laid out over the region, the temp forecast will
need to be adjusted to account for it for a day or two afterward.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1113 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

VFR conditions are likely to prevail through much of the forecast
period for all sites. By 12z, mid and high clouds will be
increasing across at least SE OK with an eventual increase in low
clouds closer to 18z. Ceiling reductions are likely areawide
tomorrow afternoon, but MVFR conditions cannot be ruled out for
MLC before 18z. Additionally, snow showers will be increasing
across E OK by late tomorrow morning/ afternoon. MLC is most
likely to experience impacts from snow during the forecast period,
but TUL, RVS, and FSM may also report snow before 18z. Winds
remain light out of the NNW today but become southerly tomorrow
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   21  34  29  34 /   0  80  60  10
FSM   20  33  28  36 /   0  70  90  30
MLC   21  33  29  36 /   0  90  90  10
BVO   17  34  27  34 /   0  70  70   0
FYV   15  32  26  34 /   0  60  80  30
BYV   17  35  26  32 /   0  40  90  30
MKO   20  33  28  34 /   0  80  80  10
MIO   17  34  27  32 /   0  70  90  10
F10   22  32  28  35 /   0  80  70  10
HHW   24  33  29  36 /  10  90 100  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to noon CST Friday
     for OKZ054>071.

     Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Thursday to noon CST Friday for
     OKZ049-053-072>076.

AR...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to noon CST Friday
     for ARZ001.

     Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Thursday to noon CST Friday for
     ARZ002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...43