327
FXUS64 KTSA 162355
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
655 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

  - Shower and thunderstorm chances for northwest AR through mid
    afternoon today, then, a slight chance for storms for far
    southeast OK during the late afternoon. Some storms could be
    severe, with large hail the primary threat.

  - An unsettled weather pattern continues through the weekend and into
    early next week. Severe thunderstorms are expected at times.

  - Cooler and drier weather for the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon )
Issued at 106 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

A surface boundary is advancing east through the area, currently it
stretches from northwest AR back into south-central OK. Earlier,
showers and storms had formed in the unstable air ahead of this
boundary but have since moved east.

CAMs are in good agreement that the next round of storms will
form right as they are exiting southeast OK this afternoon. This
may occur if sufficient surface heating breaks the capping
inversion. Forecast profiles support all severe hazards, but
large hail in particular. With that said, all areas east of the
boundary should remain alert for potential severe weather. By
early evening, any storms should be south or east of the area. Due
to the cooler and drier air behind the boundary, temperatures
will drop into the 50s north of I-40 tonight. It will be a bit
warmer south of I-40 where some moisture return will begin, with
lows generally in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

During the day Saturday the boundary will drift back to the north,
with deep moisture filling in near and south of I-40. Meanwhile,
another weak cold front will sag south out of the north, combining
with the existing boundary near I-40 for the middle part of the day.
This merged boundary will then gradually lift back north and wash
out, with deep moisture filling the forecast area by late afternoon
or evening. With plenty of moisture, deep instability, and good wind
shear, thunderstorms (some of which could be severe) are
expected. Lift will increase later in the day as an approaching
upper level wave passes through. Storms will focus south of I-40
through mid afternoon before spreading north and east into the
late afternoon and evening. The threat of storms will continue
overnight, especially north of I-40 and towards northwest AR.
Temperatures will be warm Saturday, with highs in the 80s and
lows in the 60s.

Model guidance is in pretty good agreement that storm activity will
light up along the remnant 850 hPa frontal boundary Sunday
afternoon into the overnight hours, which should be oriented NW-
SE, roughly in the vicinity of northeast OK into west-central AR.
With very high PWAT near 1.5" (dewpoints into the low 70s) and
strong warm advection, areas of heavy rainfall and isolated severe
storms are likely.

We will remain within the warm sector Monday, with dew points again
surging into the 70s. Additionally, stronger lift and shear will
spread into the area as the upper level trough approaches. Forecast
soundings are concerning, with most forecast metrics looking
conducive for higher end severe weather potential. The expectation
is that during the afternoon storms will develop along the dry
line before moving east across the area. All severe hazards would
be possible with any discrete storms, perhaps transitioning to
more of a QLCS system with time. The SPC has already increased
severe weather probabilities to slight to enhanced (15-30%) for
this period, which seems well warranted given the parameter
space.

A cold front will push through later Monday, bringing much drier and
cooler air. This should set is up for a quieter period mid week.
Better moisture and storm chances return by late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

VFR is expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the period.
Storms that form this evening/tonight should stay well east of the
forecast area. Skies should clear overnight, with mid/high level
clouds increasing through the day Saturday. Storm chances will
increase across south/southeast OK by mid-afternoon and spread
northeastward with time through the late afternoon hours. Included
PROB30 groups at MLC, TUL, RVS, and FSM for thunderstorms,
generally between 20z-00z/3pm-7pm. Confidence of timing for storms is
low at this time. Winds stay light and will veer from the
east/northeast to the south/southeast in the afternoon. However, winds
may become strong and erratic underneath thunderstorms that
occur. Additionally, ceilings may briefly lower to MVFR in
thunderstorms.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  83  64  82 /   0  20  50  50
FSM   62  89  68  87 /   0  30  50  40
MLC   61  86  68  85 /   0  40  30  30
BVO   51  80  60  81 /   0  10  60  60
FYV   55  85  63  82 /   0  20  60  60
BYV   56  84  61  82 /   0  10  60  60
MKO   58  85  64  82 /   0  30  50  50
MIO   53  80  61  81 /   0  10  70  70
F10   59  85  66  82 /   0  30  40  40
HHW   65  86  68  83 /  10  50  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...67