095
FXUS64 KTSA 301614
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1114 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1109 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Will go ahead and upgrade a portion of the heat advisory,
generally south of I-40 in eastern OK and through the Arkansas
River Valley. Currently the synoptic cold front is a bit south of
I-44, with a subtle outflow boundary in the vicinity of I-40. To
the south of this, dew points remain in the 75-80 range and a
number of reporting stations were already seeing heat index values
from 100-108. Given at least a few more hours of strong
insolation as cirrus shield from morning convection remain well
north, seems likely that a corridor of HI in the 110-113 range
should develop in this area for at least a couple of hours.
Eventually still expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms to
provide some relief, albeit rather localized. Updated products
will be issued soon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

As surface high pressure advances eastward towards the Great
Lakes region on Monday, Sunday`s frontal boundary will lift back
northward as a warm front, with modest to strong WAA pushing into
the forecast area by Monday afternoon behind it. There could be a
few diurnally-driven isolated showers and storms that form Monday
afternoon as a result. Convection should stay very spotty and
short-lived as mid-level ridging dominates overhead. Otherwise,
oppressive heat is anticipated to return and intensify through the
first half of the week next week. Additional heat headlines will
likely be needed, especially Monday-Thursday.

Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to shift over the Southeast
CONUS by Wednesday as an upper-level trough works its way over
the Northern Plains. As a result, another weak surface frontal
boundary will approach the forecast area from the north, helping
to increase rain chances across northeast OK and northwest AR
during the daytime. Still lots of uncertainty with the evolution
of the front, with consensus in models currently suggesting it
stalls just north of the area Wednesday and Thursday, then have it
finally pushing through the region on Friday. The front is
expected to bring in a chance of showers and thunderstorms
(20-40%) late Thursday night through Friday night as it pushes
into the area. Guidance also suggests the front brings a much
needed cool down by next weekend, dropping temps closer to
seasonal average.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

A few light rain showers will continue in the KBVO area through
mid morning. Heavier rainfall potential will likely remain north
and west of NE OK TAF sites. Scattered thunderstorms still
possible this afternoon near boundary, forecast to be located
near the I-40 corridor, potentially impacting KMLC/KFSM with
brief MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions are general
expected through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  76  96  78 /  20  10  10   0
FSM   95  76  92  71 /  50  20  10   0
MLC   95  75  95  76 /  30  30  10   0
BVO   86  71  94  76 /  30  20  10   0
FYV   91  70  91  69 /  40  10  10   0
BYV   88  68  88  66 /  40  10  10   0
MKO   92  75  92  74 /  30  20  10   0
MIO   86  71  92  73 /  20  20  20   0
F10   91  74  94  74 /  30  20  10   0
HHW   97  76  93  75 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-065-066-
     070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...12