Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
754 FXUS64 KTSA 170515 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1215 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1215 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 - Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry weather through today. - A cold front brings shower and storm chances tonight (Friday night) into Saturday with a risk of severe weather, especially Saturday afternoon. - After a brief cool down Sunday, temperatures quickly rise Monday, before another cold front knocks temperatures down again. Conditions will mainly be dry except for a slight chance of rain Monday and late next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Cloudy conditions with light southerly winds will persist for the remainder of the overnight hours. Low temperatures will be mild, generally in the low to mid 60s. An isolated sprinkle or two in southeast OK cannot be ruled out, but otherwise dry conditions will persist. Southerly flow will continue through the day today in response to a deep trough across the mountain west and northern Plains. Moisture levels will creep up, with dew points in the 60s by this afternoon. Winds will gust 15-25 mph during the afternoon. High temperatures will remain quite warm as skies will clear out by mid morning, generally in the mid to upper 80s. During the late overnight hours storm chances will ramp up along a prefrontal trough, mainly across northeast OK. Continued southerly flow (and increasing LLJ speeds) will boost low level moisture, with dew points rising into the mid 60s. Meanwhile, upper level forcing will increase as the upper level jet begins to influence the area. This should kick off scattered showers and thunderstorms. For the most part these storms should be subsevere, but a few marginally severe storms for hail or wind are possible (5-10% chance). Low temperatures will be quite mild Saturday morning, in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Storm activity will continue into Saturday morning. The storm mode and progression remains somewhat uncertain. The main source of uncertainty is related to how expansive and persistent storm activity is Saturday morning. If storm activity is more expansive it may lower the storm potential/intensity later in the day, with the inverse of this true if storm activity is less. Most CAM guidance this evening suggests that storm activity will develop relatively quickly Saturday morning (more like scenario 1), with a line of storms moving through the area from west to east and plenty of stratiform rain behind the line. In this case, severe potential would mainly focus along the leading line of precipitation, with any stronger segments or cells capable of large hail and damaging wind (15% chance). An isolated tornado would be possible as well (5% chance). With that said, the ceiling for severe weather would probably be a bit lower compared to if precipitation largely holds off until later in the day Saturday. Storm activity looks to mostly remain ahead of the low level front, which will arrive later Saturday, though some CAMS reinvigorate a few storms along the front in southeast OK. This forecast will likely continue to evolve as we get closer so pay attention to future forecast updates. Once the cold front moves through, winds will quick shift to the northwest. Winds will gust to 25-35 mph for a few hours behind the front before winding down. Dew points will crash into the 30s with clearing skies. Sunday will be cool with highs in the 60s under sunny skies and weakening winds. Low temperatures will be the coolest of the fall so far for many areas, ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s. Another trough will move into the midwest Monday. This will reverse the pressure gradient with temperatures soaring Monday into the 80s, but they will come crashing back down into Tuesday as another dry (or mostly dry) cold front moves through. The best chance for a couple of showers with this front will be in the higher terrain of northwest Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma. For the remainder of the forecast period temperatures will be near to a little above normal with highs in the 60s-70s and lows in the 40s-50s. Conditions will also generally be dry, with perhaps another weak cold front with a few showers by next Thursday or so. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Plethora of mid and high level clouds and light southerly winds are expected to limit the fog potential at BVO and FYV overnight tonight. Southerly winds become gusty again this afternoon with occasional to frequent gusts near 20kt through about sunset before subsiding. Mejia && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 87 67 82 47 / 0 60 60 10 FSM 87 67 79 51 / 10 20 80 20 MLC 87 69 82 50 / 0 20 60 10 BVO 86 63 80 45 / 0 70 60 10 FYV 83 65 77 45 / 0 30 90 30 BYV 82 65 76 47 / 0 20 90 30 MKO 86 67 81 49 / 0 40 80 10 MIO 84 65 78 45 / 0 60 70 10 F10 86 67 83 48 / 0 30 60 10 HHW 85 68 81 52 / 10 10 60 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...67