409
FXUS64 KTSA 052327
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
627 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

 - A warming trend continues through the week with high
   temperatures in the mid to upper 90s late week. Predominantly
   dry conditions expected over the next few days.

 - Heat index value climb back near/above 100 degrees each
   afternoon Thursday through the weekend. Heat headlines could
   return mid to late week.

 - Slight chance of showers and storms returns early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Dome of mid/upper level high pressure remained centered over the
far southern portion of the Desert Southwest early this afternoon,
with eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas on the eastern
periphery of the ridge. At the surface, high pressure was slowly
beginning to push eastward while an area of surface low pressure
was developing over eastern Colorado. In response, scattered
diurnal cumulus clouds had developed over the CWA with light
winds trying to become more south/southeasterly across eastern
Oklahoma. These conditions were aiding in expected afternoon temps
to be slightly warmer compared to yesterday with highs in the
upper 80s and lower 90s.

Overnight tonight, south/southeasterly surface winds are expected
to become more common as surface high pressure exits. At the same
time, the dome of high pressure is progged to expand eastward over
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Low temps in the mid 60s
to lower 70s are forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Mid/upper level ridge of high pressure remains the dominate
feature over the Southern Plains into the weekend with the return
of breezy southerly winds each day. This return flow will begin to
transport moisture back into the region and aid in more humid
conditions across the CWA. Thus, a warming trend combined with
more humid conditions are forecast to bring back afternoon temps
in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values near/above 100 deg
each afternoon Thursday into the weekend. Heat headlines will
likely be necessary Thursday and Friday afternoons.

Over the weekend, latest model data continued to differ with the
location of the eastern extent of the ridge while a wave moves out
of the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Plains. At this time,
the associated frontal boundary and shower/storm chances with the
wave should remain north of the region with at least the eastern
periphery of the ridge still over the CWA. A secondary shortwave
rotating around the base of the upper level trof is progged to
drop more southeast toward the region early next week. Will carry
at least a slight chance PoP Monday/Tuesday and also slightly
cooler temps of low/mid 90s in response.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period at all sites.
Periodic southerly wind gusts around 20 knots will occur across
portions of northeast OK by late morning. These gusts will likely
affect BVO, and possibly at TUL and RVS through the afternoon on
Wednesday.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  95  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   73  96  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   71  94  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   69  94  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   68  92  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   69  94  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   71  94  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   70  94  74  96 /   0   0   0   0
F10   70  94  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   70  94  72  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...67