771
FXUS64 KTSA 060045
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
745 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 745 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Clear skies and mild temperatures will persist overnight tonight
across the region. Current forecast remains on track, with no
notable changes for the update this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Cold front passes across the local forecast area tomorrow through
tomorrow evening. Much drier air will follow the front coupled
with a window of gusty winds across NE OK. Cooler temps are likely
to lag the frontal passage and the result will be very low
afternoon humidity values across NE OK with a few hours of
stronger winds. Grassland fire weather conditions will respond
with any fire starts possibly being problematic until winds lessen
by late afternoon. The low dewpoint airmass will overspread the
region and only slowly modify through mid week. Expect wide daily
range in temps with highly variable overnight lows as local
terrain effects couple with excellent radiational conditions.

The region become aligned on the eastern periphery of the mid
level ridge early next week and most guidance depicts a corridor
of higher mid level moisture residing across or near the area.
Expectation is daily ACCUS field developing overnight and
persisting through the morning for several days next week. An
isolated shower or storm may also develop though overall coverage
and placement uncertainties keeps precip chances very low at this
time. Any rains will be light and likely not meaningful to the
ongoing drought conditions. General expectation is continued dry
and above normal temperatures for much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

VFR conditions expected thru the period. A cold front will switch
winds from south today to north on Sunday. Winds across NE OK will
gust above 15 kts at times thru the afternoon.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  88  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   63  93  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   62  91  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   55  87  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   56  89  44  80 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   60  88  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   61  90  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   58  85  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
F10   62  90  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   63  92  59  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...30