Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
391 FXUS64 KTSA 091051 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 551 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 545 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 - Unseasonably warm temperatures return late this week through the weekend. - Increasing southerly winds and the warm conditions will aid in limited fire weather concerns for the weekend, especially Sunday afternoon. - Low rain chances return early next week, mainly for areas along and north of I-44. && .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Another predominantly quiet day is forecast for the area with temperatures similar or slightly warmer than Wednesday. Sfc high pressure moves east today allowing for the return of southerly low level flow this morning. This will help bring moisture northward early in the day with weak instability perhaps allowing a few light showers to develop this morning in parts of NE OK and southern KS. Coverage is forecast to remain low, if any, and PoPs remain less than 10%. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies become mostly sunny with high temps in the upper 70s or lower 80s... making for another pleasant day. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Upper level ridging expands into the Southern Plains tonight with northwesterly flow aloft occurring over much of the central states. A weak wave embedded in the flow will pass near the area late tonight into Friday, perhaps allowing for a few additional showers in parts of NE OK and NW AR. Meaningful rainfall is not expected with this feature either. Ridging moves more directly overhead going into this weekend maintaining dry conditions. This will also allow for increasing temperatures as southerly flow intensifies Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures will again be 10-15 degrees above average during this time, generally in the 80s or near 90 degrees. Additionally, the pressure gradient tightens on Sunday as a sfc low moves into the C Plains. This will encourage a period of stronger winds Sunday afternoon, especially along and north of I-44... generally 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph. Given the very warm temperatures, lack of recent wetting rains, and min RHs in the 20- 40% range, at least limited fire weather concerns are expected west of Highway 75 in NE OK. Amplified longwave troughing develops over the western half of the country early to mid next week. This will suppress the aforementioned ridging and provide an elongated plume of SW flow across much of the central CONUS, helping to transport tropical moisture from NW Mexico/ E Pacific. A shortwave ejects into the plains Sunday into Monday sending a frontal boundary into the region. Models still differ in terms of boundary placement and QPF, but locations along and north of I-44 appear most favorable to receive some rain on Monday. Given ongoing discrepancies, PoPs remain on the lower end... generally 15-25%. Ridging attempts to re-establish itself going into mid week with a dry and warm forecast continuing for now. High temperatures may decrease slightly Monday and Tuesday, but still remain above average for this time of year in the 80s through the end of the period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 551 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Pockets of MVFR cigs have developed this morning mostly near and north of the KS border, with development much more patchy to the south. Inserted TEMPO MVFR cigs at KBVO thru 16Z closer to larger area of low cloud, with just a scattered mention at KTUL and KRVS. A sct to bkn deck of 5kft cloud is exptd across NE OK later in the day. Some sct mid cloud can be expected over in NW AR, mainly this morning. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 81 59 86 63 / 10 0 10 0 FSM 80 56 82 59 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 83 55 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 79 54 85 58 / 10 10 10 0 FYV 78 48 81 57 / 0 0 10 0 BYV 74 52 79 58 / 0 0 10 0 MKO 80 57 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 77 56 81 61 / 0 10 10 0 F10 82 56 85 59 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 82 56 81 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...43 LONG TERM....43 AVIATION...30