Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
341 FXUS64 KTSA 130520 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1220 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1220 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 - Rain chances return tonight through Monday mainly for areas along and north of I-44. - Unseasonably warm conditions through much of the week, with low rain chances returning next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Today) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Regional 00z RAOBs sampling a corridor of high precipitable water values around 1.5" extending from west TX through north central OK, mostly confined to 750mb and above. As moisture from remnants of tropical storm continues to be pulled northeastward, expect this moist corridor to remain in a similar orientation tonight and Monday, but largely atop a layer of dry air. Some fairly robust radar echoes have been present this evening, but rainfall amounts to this point have remained less than a tenth of an inch which supports considerable evaporation still occurring. Some moistening of the near surface layer is eventually expected in areas northwest of I-44 Monday, thus a period of generally light rainfall can be expected, with only a low probability of amounts as high as a half inch. Clouds and precip will keep daytime temps on the cooler side across northeast OK, with another very warm day in areas to the south and east similar to recent days. Frontal boundary pushing through central and southwest KS is not expected to make much further progress southeast and will mostly be a non-factor in the forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Moist plume will shift more to the northwest tonight into Tuesday as strong upper level ridging re-establishes over the Southern Plains. 500mb heights are progged to rise above 590 dam over a large portion of the South Central US by mid-week. Thus a return yet again to dry conditions with unseasonably warm temperatures. By next weekend, some degree of breakdown in the pattern remains anticipated, though uncertainty still high regarding any details. The forecast continues to follow blended model guidance with low chances of showers returning Friday into Saturday with a modest cooling of temperatures to start next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Light showers are expected to continue across NE OK through the morning hours, occasionally impacting BVO and, to a lesser extent, TUL and RVS. Overall, VFR conditions are likely to prevail areawide. However, there is a low potential for MVFR vsbys this morning for BVO, where the highest potential for moderate rain rates exists. MVFR cigs are currently projected to remain west of NE OK sites. Showers will tend to decrease in coverage by mid day for TUL and RVS, but may linger until around 00z for BVO. MLC and NW AR sites are currently forecast to remain dry through the forecast period, though a brief light shower cannot be ruled out. Dry conditions are expected tonight with mid and high clouds persisting through the end of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 78 66 88 64 / 30 10 0 0 FSM 88 66 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 88 63 89 60 / 10 0 0 0 BVO 74 61 86 59 / 50 10 0 0 FYV 84 61 86 57 / 10 10 0 0 BYV 82 62 83 59 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 85 66 87 63 / 10 10 0 0 MIO 77 65 85 62 / 30 10 0 0 F10 85 64 88 61 / 20 10 0 0 HHW 87 62 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...43