794
FXUS64 KTSA 271911
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
211 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 211 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

  - Localized elevated fire weather conditions north of I-44 and
    west of Highway 75 this afternoon.

  - Rain chances increase mainly from southeast OK into western AR
    on Friday.

  - Severe weather potential increases Saturday night into Sunday.

  - Another round of severe weather potential looks to arrive by
    the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now thru Friday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Spotty high-based showers continue across northeast OK but should
fade by the end of the day. An isolated shower or two is possible
over SE OK by early evening, but chances aren`t high enough to
warrant a mention. Rain chances increase toward daybreak Friday
from the south as an upper disturbance over southern TX and its
moisture lift northeast. Not expecting much in the way of thunder
with this activity. Cloud cover and rain will hold high temps back
several degrees from what it has been, more like 60s and 70s
instead of 70s and 80s.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday thru Thursday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

The main focus of this forecast resides in the Saturday night thru
Sunday time frame. A transition toward SW flow aloft occurs this
weekend, with a shortwave trough and increasing mid-level flow
spreading into the southern Plains during this time. There remains
uncertainty regarding the evolution of the surface features. The
UKMET and ECMWF are in better agreement on a slower progression to
the front across our area compared to the GFS, so will lean toward
the former rather than the latter. By late Saturday, the dryline
sets up over western OK with a cold front pushing southeast across
KS. The daytime hours on Saturday look quiet, but there are hints
in the EC and UKMET that an isolated storm or two could develop
off the dryline by early Saturday evening, while more storms
develop along the cold front as it approaches our area from the
northwest. If storms develop off the dryline, the environment
looks favorable for supercells and the potential for high-impact
weather clear east into northeast OK Saturday evening/night. Some
severe potential would also exist with storms along the front,
most likely to affect eastern KS and neighboring portions of far
NE OK. Eventually this activity runs out of steam toward Sunday
morning. The cold front will continue to advance east and south
across the area, and by afternoon the atmosphere ahead of the
front destabilizes enough for storms to form, with the best
chances along and east of highway 69. Deep-layer shear and
instability remain favorable for severe storms, though not quite
the high-impact potential of the previous night. The front should
clear the area by Sunday evening, ending the severe threat.

A cooler and quiet start to the next work week is expected.
However, in the spring things change fast. The next storm system
and associated front will bring the next chance for severe weather
toward the middle of next week.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Isolated showers and a thunderstorm are possible today for the
Tulsa area terminals as well as KBVO. These showers are expected
to move east and diminish by mid afternoon. A few isolated showers
may develop across southeast OK this afternoon, but odds were too
low to include in the KMLC TAF. Otherwise, partly to mostly sunny
skies are expected with a few clouds in the 5-6 kft layer and
again at or above 12 kft. Breezy southerly winds will continue
through the period with a few gusts to 20 kts.

Ceilings will rapidly lower Friday morning from southwest to
northeast. Ceilings will lower to 2-3 kft for all areas by late
morning. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will develop for KMLC
and KFSM. Coverage is expected to be more isolated for the TAF
sites that are further north. Localized visibility reductions and
ceilings below 1 kft may occur briefly under heavier showers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  72  61  81 /   0  20  10  10
FSM   59  72  62  83 /  10  60  30  20
MLC   58  69  60  81 /  20  70  20  20
BVO   54  73  57  80 /   0  10  10  10
FYV   55  72  59  81 /   0  40  30  20
BYV   58  72  61  77 /   0  30  30  30
MKO   57  70  60  80 /   0  50  10  10
MIO   58  72  60  79 /   0  10  10  10
F10   57  69  60  80 /  10  40  10  10
HHW   58  65  61  77 /  50  90  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...06