670
FXUS64 KTSA 060516
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1216 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

   - Daily rain and storm chances will continue through the next
     week with higher chances for the first half of the week.

   - Organized severe weather is not expected. However, storms
     will be capable of producing localized heavy rainfall and
     gusty winds.

   - Afternoon heat indices will creep up into the 95-100F range
     toward the latter half of next week, with a front possible by
     the following weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday) Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Pattern remains similar through Sunday with weak troughing remaining
across the local region coincident with a plume of deeper moisture.
Guidance does suggest slightly higher coverage of precip Sunday
afternoon compared to Saturday especially across NW AR. Temps remain
near persistence.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Upper ridge is forecast to remain centered over the western CONUS
through the upcoming week. The local area will remain on the
periphery of the ridge influence while also largely displaced from
the stronger flow across the central and northern states. Periodic
waves will pass to the north with the southern extent of each wave
likely increasing daily precip chances locally. Additionally the
continued presence of ample moisture and daytime heating amidst an
unstable and uncapped airmass will offer another source of daily
precip chances. This pattern appear likely to persist through the
work week. Temperatures and afternoon heat index values are forecast
to remain near seasonal normals. A slightly trend toward warmer and
drier conditions is possible by late in the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Light showers are ongoing early tonight across far E OK and NW AR
sites, but with minimal impacts expected. Vsbys may briefly drop
under any heavier shower, but overall VFR conditions are likely
to prevail through tonight. Patchy fog may develop across the
region early this morning, but coverage and probability are too
low to include in any TAFs at this time, and will amend if
necessary. Mid and high clouds will be common again today, with
potential to start out as a brief period of MVFR cigs. Shower and
thunderstorm chances increase this afternoon and early evening,
particularly across far NE OK and NW AR sites, where PROB30 groups
have been maintained from 20-02z. Aside from any direct impacts
from storms, VFR conditions are likely through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  73  90  73 /  20  10  30  20
FSM   93  74  93  74 /  20  10  30  10
MLC   90  71  90  72 /  20  10  30  10
BVO   91  70  90  70 /  20  20  20  20
FYV   90  71  89  70 /  30  20  30  20
BYV   89  70  91  69 /  40  20  40  20
MKO   89  71  89  72 /  20  10  30  20
MIO   90  71  89  71 /  40  20  30  20
F10   88  71  88  71 /  20  10  30  20
HHW   91  71  91  71 /  20   0  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...43