868
FXUS64 KTSA 071353
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
853 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 853 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

  - Relative lull in storm chances today and tonight. Another
    storm complex Sunday evening into overnight hours.

  - Flash and main-stem river flooding threat will be widespread
    generally along and north of Interstate 40.

  - Brief dry period through mid week with below average
    temperatures for this time of year. Rain chances returns later
    in the work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 853 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Severe MCS has exited to the east, with some remaining stratiform
precip to exit later this morning. A west to east band of elevated
storms over western OK atop the cold pool from the MCS is expected
to gradually fade with time today. A quick update was made to the
forecast to trend PoPs lower and to drop thunder probs to slight
chance. Will evaluate data and make further updates to the
forecast for this afternoon.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through mid afternoon)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Storms steadily expanding in coverage across NE OK in advance of
organized bowing MCS quickly moving across north central OK. The
severe threat will quickly increase this morning both with the
ongoing scattered storms and certainly with the advancing bow. 00z
KOUN sounding sampled the corridor of strong elevated instability
and effective shear profiles support high likelihood of organized
severe weather with the passing MCS which is timed to clear
western AR by mid morning. Flooding will quickly worsen with the
additional heavy rains and rises should be anticipated on area
main stem rivers.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Late afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

The remnant outflow boundary may focus a few storms later today
into the evening across SE OK but coverage is likely to be low. A
relative lull in storm chances in expected from late afternoon
through tonight into the day Sunday.

Troughing deepens through the central CONUS and drives a cold
front through the area Sunday night into Monday. Another storm
complex is likely during this time frame with highest chances
across SE OK and points west and southward, however there remains
uncertainty in the placement of this complex and higher weather
impacts remain possible pending the exact track.

A few drier and cooler days are likely for early next week before
a weak upper low drifts across the Southern Plains mid to late
week. This feature has been consistent in guidance and precip
chances have trended upward in the Wed - Thurs time frame
as the upper low passes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

MCS remained ongoing across southeast and far eastern Oklahoma as
well as over the majority of northwest Arkansas this morning.
This line of convection will continue to move out of the CWA over
the next couple of hours. Within the convection, IFR/MVFR
conditions, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are anticipated. Behind
the departing convective complex, improving conditions back to VFR
are forecast, though a period of MVFR ceilings may develop before
lifting to VFR late morning/early afternoon. Also some lingering
showers/storms could move across southeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas and will continue Prob30 groups into late morning. During
the afternoon hours, cloud cover looks to become more scattered
with passing high clouds overnight tonight. Additional precip
chances remains mainly south of Interstate 40 tonight and will add
a Prob30 group to KMLC. There is also potential late tonight for
some areas of reduced visibility to develop with the greater
potential in far northwest Arkansas. For now will trend that way
and update with latest data. Winds through the period start out
variable, become westerly, and then return to light/variable
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  66  89  65 /  80   0  10  40
FSM   86  68  92  69 /  90  30   0  40
MLC   87  68  89  67 /  60  40  10  60
BVO   83  61  88  62 /  60   0  10  40
FYV   82  63  88  64 /  90  20   0  30
BYV   81  62  87  64 / 100  10   0  30
MKO   83  65  88  66 /  80  20  10  40
MIO   81  62  87  63 /  80   0  10  40
F10   85  65  89  65 /  70  20  10  50
HHW   90  70  89  67 /  40  40  10  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20