030
FXUS64 KTSA 010845
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
345 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Recent regional surface obs/analysis show a nearly-stationary
frontal boundary, draped west-to-east near the I-40 corridor early
this morning. As a 1027mb surface high pressure (currently
centered over the Great Lakes region) continues to advance
eastward today, the weak boundary is forecast to become more
north/south oriented and lift northeastward as a warm front across
the forecast area through the daytime.

As mentioned in the previous forecast discussion, this frontal
zone is expected to act as a corridor of higher dewpoints as well
as isolated/scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon. Any
shower/storm that develops will likely be short-lived and mostly
non-impactful. Strong ridging aloft will allow temperatures to
rise into the mid-upper 90s for most locations across eastern OK
and west-central AR. As such, another dangerously hot and humid
day will transpire across most of the forecast area today, with
the exception being in the higher terrain areas in northwest AR
and southeast OK. Upgraded part of the Heat Advisory to an
Excessive Heat Warning for locations (generally) along and west
of Highway 69 in OK, where dewpoints are forecast to range between
75-80F through much of the afternoon. Another change made to the
Heat Advisory was adding Ottawa and Cherokee counties in OK. Both
the Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning will go into effect
at noon today and continue through 9 PM this evening.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Mid/upper-level ridging will strengthen and begin to shift
eastward over the southeastern CONUS Tuesday and Wednesday. Both
days will remain (mostly) dry with strong subsidence occurring
aloft. Unseasonably hot and humid conditions will remain the
center of focus Tuesday through Thursday, with heat headlines
likely needed each day.

Ridging begins to breakdown and weaken beginning Wednesday
evening/night as a low-amplitude trough tries to push into the
Plains. Medium-range forecast models show another frontal boundary
pushing into the Central Plains on Wednesday, with guidance
suggesting the boundary becomes stationary, remaining north of
the forecast area Wednesday through most of Thursday. Lift and
moisture pooling along the front may cause showers and
thunderstorms to form Wednesday north of the forecast area.
However, low PoPs (10-30%) were maintained along the KS/OK and
AR/MO borders as a few storms/outflow boundaries may penetrate the
northern-tier of the forecast area on Wednesday and into Thursday
morning, but most locations are expected to remain hot and dry.

A better chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur
beginning late Thursday night through Friday as the cold front is
forecast to advance southward through the forecast area. Although
widespread severe chances are not high, storms that form with the
front Thursday night into Friday may be strong or marginally
severe, with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. With
PWATs increasing to near 2 inches, locally heavy rainfall may also
occur with the storms. With that said, there remains uncertainty
with strength and position of the cold at this time and
adjustments to the forecast are likely over the next few days. If
the forecast verifies, temperatures will trend closer to seasonal
average Friday and Saturday, with ridging building back in by
Sunday.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Frontal boundary, currently located near I-40 will become diffuse
today with light south winds developing. Upper ridge will remain
over the region and although an isolated shower/thunderstorm will
be possible this afternoon, overall precip coverage appears too
low to include at this time. Scattered mid/high clouds will persist
across NE OK/NW AR with a few afternoon CU possible elsewhere.
VFR conditions are generally expected through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  80 100  81 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   94  74  98  78 /  20  10   0   0
MLC   97  77  98  78 /  20   0   0   0
BVO   95  77 100  77 /  10   0   0  10
FYV   92  71  95  76 /  20   0   0   0
BYV   90  69  97  76 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   93  76  97  78 /  20   0   0   0
MIO   93  74  97  78 /  20   0   0  10
F10   95  77  98  78 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   94  76  97  78 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053-057-058-062-068-072-076.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ054>056-059>061-064>067-070-071-073>075.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...12