Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
912 FXUS64 KTSA 040055 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 755 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 - Off and on shower and storm chances (primarily for eastern Oklahoma) through Monday afternoon. Highest PoPs west of U.S. 75. - Cooler than normal weather continues through Monday with highs in the 80s and lows mostly in the 60s. - A warming trend will commence tomorrow with a return to above average temperatures by Thursday. Heat headlines could return late in the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 755 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Attention is squarely on the thunderstorms currently in southwest Kansas, moving to the south-southeast toward portions of western and central Oklahoma. The general thinking remains that the majority of these storms should stay west of the forecast area, with a low chance of an eastward extension in the development impacting areas along and west of Highway 75. This eastward extent is consistent with existing instability fields and recent CAMs. The main update to the going forecast has been to the POPs, with a trend toward lower values and a lesser eastward extent in the mentionable POPs toward the Arkansas border, as well as a quicker decrease in the north. Remaining elements appear on track. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Upper level troughing will strengthen across the Plains today as northwest flow continues. As a shortwave trough approaches the area, a few rounds of showers and storms will continue to be possible. One such area of storms moved through western Oklahoma earlier today and is now weakening. CAMs indicate additional storms may develop this evening, impacting portions of eastern OK, especially west of Highway 75. While most storms will be subsevere due to limited instability, there will be sufficient instability/shear to support some marginally severe wind gusts in the stronger storms. A few storms may also produce heavy rainfall and localized flood potential. Highs today will be mild, mostly in the 80s, with lows in the 60s overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Strong upper level ridging will build Monday through late week. The ridging will be centered to the southwest of the area, with the ridge axis extending into the area. Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 90s for most areas by mid week. As southerly flow becomes established, dew points will also rise, with dangerous heat a concern by mid week. Afternoon heat indices of 105 F or higher are expected for some areas. During this time, no additional rainfall is expected, with PoPs at about 10% or less. By next weekend or early next week, upper level ridging will begin to pinch off as a strong trough drops into the northern Rockies and weaker troughing develops across the southeast USA. Ensemble guidance is uncertain how close these two troughs will get. In some guidance where they stay further apart we remain hot, humid, but ultimately mostly dry. Other guidance allows them to get close enough to break down the ridge, resulting in cooler temperatures and increased rain chances. Presumably models will get a better handle on the most likely outcome in the days ahead. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 The main aviation concern is potential for thunderstorm impacts late evening into early Monday morning at the eastern Oklahoma terminals. Activity remains likely to stay west of the Arkansas sites. Will maintain the existing PROB30 mentions in the current TAFs, although the valid times will be shifted a few hours earlier. Otherwise, expect prevailing VFR conditions and light winds through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 68 85 68 90 / 30 20 0 0 FSM 69 88 69 92 / 10 10 0 0 MLC 67 87 67 91 / 20 20 0 0 BVO 64 84 63 90 / 30 10 0 0 FYV 61 84 63 88 / 10 10 0 0 BYV 61 86 63 90 / 10 10 0 0 MKO 67 85 67 90 / 20 20 0 0 MIO 64 84 63 90 / 10 10 0 0 F10 67 85 66 90 / 30 20 0 0 HHW 68 86 69 90 / 20 30 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...22