704
FXUS64 KTSA 012235
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
435 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 425 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

- Light mixed wintry precipitation is occurring across the region
  this morning. Travel impacts are occurring, as slick spots have
  developed especially on elevated road surfaces such as bridges
  and overpasses.

-  Additional shot of light snow near the KS and MO borders this
   afternoon and early evening, with limited travel impacts.

 - Temperatures warm somewhat through Wednesday before another
   potent cold front arrives, which will bring precipitation back
   to the area. Wintry precipitation is a possibility.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 435 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

A narrow band of moderate snow has developed across northeast
Oklahoma along a modest zone of mid level frontogenesis ahead of
the main trough axis. Brief moderate snowfall will be likely for
points near the OK/KS border over the next couple of hours and
then pushing eastward along the OK/AR/MO borders later this
evening. Some minor travel impacts will be possible within the
heavier snow bands, especially on elevated surfaces. Marginal
surface temperature hovering near to above freezing along with the
short duration of the more intense snowfall should keep from any
widespread impacts through the evening hours. Anywhere from a
dusting to half an inch of snow could fall within this band, with
highest totals near the OK/KS border this evening. We will
continue to monitor if there needs to be any advisories issued if
conditions worsen. Lighter snow showers/flurries will also extend
down the I-44 corridor through the rest of the afternoon and early
evening, with any impacts expected to be minimal at best owing to
temperatures in the mid 30s for a good portion of the area this
afternoon. Most all precipitation is still on track to push east
of the forecast area by around 8 to 9PM. Updated forecast to
account for the trends in the current snow band... otherwise the
forecast remains on track through the evening.

Bowlan

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 1146 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Low amplitude mid level wave remains to our west this afternoon
with dry slot continuing to expand across the area in advance. As
this happens, bulk of the precipitation will shift east of the
local forecast area later this afternoon. In the meantime, temps
are slowly rising, but still remain at or below freezing across
northwest AR and parts of northeast OK and additional travel
impacts from light icing remain likely for at least a few more
hours generally in the corridor east of Highway 75, north of
about Highway 62 in northeast OK, as well as northwest AR and the
higher terrain areas of west central AR and LeFlore Co. Current
advisory will have a few counties removed, but most will be
extended through 3 PM.

Dry sub cloud layer underneath the mid level dry slot should keep
any additional precip from occurring, until the wave now located
over eastern NM moves ENE through the evening. Expectation is for
this feature to force a band of light snow or flurries across
northeast OK late this afternoon and into northwest AR this
evening. There is a low chance of a few spots picking up some
light accumulation, while less than an inch most likely, some
travel impacts are possible closer to the KS and MO borders where
temps are not expected to get much above freezing this afternoon.
Trends with this will be monitored for potential of another
short-fused winter weather advisory.

Behind the wave, skies will gradually clear from the west,
resulting in a rather cold night, mainly upper teens and lower
20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 1146 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

After a cold start Tuesday we will see a quick return to south
winds as the pattern remains progressive and sfc high moves to
the east. This will result in milder daytime temps under mostly
sunny, albeit with a breeze. Considerably milder lows expected
Tuesday night with warming trend continuing into Wednesday, but
another strong cold front will be forced south dropping us right
back below normal Wed night and Thursday. The front appears to be
a dry one as upper forcing remains well north, however there are
some hints in model data of a weak wave sliding east across the
area Wed night which could at least produce a few flurries.

The forecast for the later part of the week remains uncertain as
another shortwave is expected to dive into the southwest and eject
across the Southern Plains. With cold air in place there could be
additional winter weather, but this depends largely on how
quickly this occurs. Ensemble forecast continue to show a large
spread with the strength/timing of this wave and as such, the
forecast follows the NBM with some light winter mix Thursday night
into Friday. Odds do appear to favor a low impact event at this
time however.

Progressive northwesterly flow upper pattern continues into next
week, with another dry and warmer period through Saturday,
followed by another cold front around Sunday. This pattern
suggests generally dry weather, with majority of any shortwave
energy remaining focused to our northeast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Expect cigs to trend down into the MVFR range this afternoon and
evening before cigs scatter out tonight into Tuesday morning. A
light wintry mix could still be expected for a few hours at the W
AR sites, while a band of light snow could briefly reduce vsbys at
the NE OK sites this afternoon, and at the far NW AR sites this
evening.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   22  48  32  50 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   25  47  29  54 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   23  50  34  57 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   18  47  27  48 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   20  45  29  50 /  40   0   0   0
BYV   22  43  28  49 /  50   0   0   0
MKO   22  47  31  52 /  20   0   0   0
MIO   20  44  29  47 /  60   0   0   0
F10   22  50  32  53 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   25  47  30  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...4
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...30