811
FXUS64 KTSA 041447
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
947 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

   - While there is a low to medium (20-40%) chance of showers and
     storms from the morning thru the afternoon on July 4th, the
     evening hours should be dry and favorable for the holiday
     festivities.

   - There will be rain and storm chances most days of this
     forecast, including the weekend on into much of next week.
     Some periods will have higher chances than others, and will
     depend on the timing of waves aloft moving across the region
     on the eastern side of what will be a strong subtropical
     ridge over the Southwest.

   - Afternoon heat indices will creep up into the 95-100F range
     next week as the subtropical ridge to our west strengthens
     and its scope broadens.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 938 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

A minor disturbance is lifting into eastern Oklahoma this
morning, bringing an increase in shower activity. In general, this
will continue into the afternoon before diminishing. The best
chance of rain will remain across eastern OK with a lower threat
for northwest Arkansas. An isolated thunderstorm or two can`t be
ruled out.However, any storm activity should diminish by this
evening with mild and dry conditions.

High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s, but fall to the
lower 80s by this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

The shortwave trough ejecting out of the Southwest is likely to
aid in forcing a storm complex as it tops the developing southwest
CONUS ridge late Friday into Saturday. The latest HRRR suggests
that outflow from a decaying MCS will push into NE OK by Saturday
morning and could force more showers and storms. By Saturday
afternoon there are some indications that the boundary will push
far enough southeast to warrant at least slight chance for storms
across portions of NW AR and SE OK. The tailing portion of the
aforementioned wave will drop down into our region Sunday into
Monday, bringing increased chances for rain and storms. The
subtropical ridge over the Southwest strengthens as we head deeper
into next week, so the more favored zone for better rain/storm
chances will be the eastern half of the forecast area (i.e. far
eastern OK into western AR) and especially toward the middle of
next week with a potential wave sliding thru in the NW flow aloft.

As mentioned earlier, afternoon heat indices will be creeping up
into the upper 90s to near 100 as well, especially across eastern
OK into west- central AR. This is of course better than it could
be this time of year. Looking further down the road into the
following week, there are indications that the subtropical ridge
will try to build east over the southern Plains, which could lead
to a stretch of hotter and drier weather. We`ll just have to wait
and see.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Aside from any direct impacts from heavy showers or thunderstorms,
VFR conditions are likely to prevail for all sites through the
forecast period. Showers have increased this morning across
S-Central OK and SE OK, slowly moving northward. This activity
may affect E OK sites through the morning hours and there is a low
chance of brief MVFR conditions, primarily for MLC. Lightning
activity has been minimal as of writing, but could still see
isolated thunderstorms develop through the morning/ early
afternoon hours. There is a low probability of additional isolated
showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon across E OK
and NW AR, but coverage is likely to remain too low to include in
TAFs. South winds increase this afternoon, gusting 15 to 20 kts,
before subsiding this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  73  90  73 /  20  10  20  20
FSM   92  74  94  75 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   87  71  90  72 /  30  10  20  10
BVO   88  71  89  70 /  20  10  30  30
FYV   90  70  90  71 /  20  10  20  10
BYV   90  70  91  70 /  20  10  20  10
MKO   87  71  90  72 /  20  10  20  10
MIO   89  71  90  72 /  20  10  20  30
F10   87  71  89  72 /  30  10  20  10
HHW   87  71  91  71 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...43