533
FXUS64 KTSA 110528
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1228 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1213 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

  - Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through the weekend, and
for much of next week.

  - Increasing southerly winds and the warm conditions will aid in limited
    fire weather concerns for the weekend, especially Sunday
    afternoon.

  - Low Rain chances return early next week, mainly for areas
    along and north of I-44.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Cluster of showers earlier this afternoon produced a swath of 0.25"-
0.50" rainfall totals from BVO-TUL. This has resulted in patchy fog
along and west of Highway 75, which most likely will persist into
early morning with local reductions to 1/2 mile or lower. Otherwise
quiet conditions overnight with lows mainly upper 50s and lower 60s.

South winds will begin to increase to a degree across eastern OK
this afternoon under an expanding upper ridge. Temperatures will
once again warm well above normal with highs in the 80s, to around
90 west of Highway 75.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Further strengthening of the sfc pressure gradient anticipated
Sunday as shortwave trough moves into the Northern Plains and
flattens the upper ridge. With continued well above normal
temperatures, likely a degree or two warmer than Saturday, fire
weather conditions will worsen as RH falls into the 25-35% range in
much of eastern OK. The area of highest concern will be where these
conditions overlap with a corridor extending from the west side of
Tulsa metro and south of US 412 that remains several weeks separated
from the most recent wetting rainfall.

A weak frontal boundary will approach from the north Monday while a
surge of tropical Pacific moisture moves over the plains. The latest
trends favor less of a frontal push south with the corridor of
associated rainfall mainly affecting areas to the northwest of the
forecast area. Rain chances Monday remain confined to areas
northwest of I-44 with generally light amounts anticipated at this
time. Temperatures will be slightly cooler Monday owing more to
increased cloud cover versus an actual airmass change.

Strong upper ridge expected to re-expand back over the Southern
Plains by the middle of next week with a return right back to summer
like conditions through Friday at least.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Afternoon showers left a swath of saturated air at KBVO which
continues early this morning. TEMPO IFR conditions forecast to
continue through the overnight hours before mixing finally brings
drier air to the surface. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected
through the period. Will note that some guidance shows fog
developing from southwest MO into northwest AR toward daybreak.
Coverage and certainty is too low to mention at this time but some
amendments may be needed if it materializes at KROG. Light and
variable winds expected to become more southerly on Saturday at
most locations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  64  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   86  62  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   89  62  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   86  60  89  64 /   0   0   0  20
FYV   83  58  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   81  59  83  61 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   87  62  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   83  62  85  66 /   0   0   0  10
F10   89  61  89  67 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   86  60  87  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...24