927
FXUS64 KTSA 030751
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
251 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

A few light showers this morning across NE OK from earlier
decaying thunderstorm complex. An additional MCV is currently
moving into central Oklahoma. Some of this developing shower/
thunderstorm activity could potentially move into portions of
northeast Oklahoma later this morning.

Dangerous heat is again expected today over much of the area.
Generally used dew-points from yesterday as starting point for
this afternoon`s forecast. Heat index values are expected to climb
into the 105-110 degree range with locally higher indices where
the excessive heat warning is in effect.

Some potential that storms developing near Oklahoma/Kansas line
this afternoon, along approaching cold front, could keep heat
indices from reaching full potential. Went ahead and kept heat
advisory for now, but some of those counties could be cancelled
if storms develop a littler earlier than expected. A few these
storms could be strong to marginally severe with locally damaging
winds the main threat.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Cold front is forecast to stall near the I-44 corridor tonight
and will briefly lift back north into the day Thursday. Heat
indices will again be a concern and will go ahead and issue heat
advisory areawide. Majority of models, including several CAMS,
suggest scattered thunderstorms will develop along frontal
boundary by late afternoon with storms pushing across much of
northeast Oklahoma Thursday evening. Marginally severe hail and
damaging winds will be possible in the stronger storms. This
activity is expected to continue overnight as storms move through
the remainder of southeast Oklahoma/west-central Arkansas
overnight.

Finally a break on Friday from the relentless heat of late,
behind cold front, with highs generally in the upper 80s in most
areas. A few lingering showers/thunderstorms will be possible
across southeast Oklahoma/west-central Arkansas before shifting
south by Friday evening.

Both GFS/ECMWF are in general agreement with another upper level
trough digging into the central/northern Plains on Sunday. There is
some potential for a MCS to develop to the north, potentially
impacting portions of the area Sunday night. Better moisture
return/instability may end of being slightly west of the area, but
still eastern Oklahoma could get clipped by eastern edge of
complex during this time.

Temperatures are expected to remain near normal for the early part
of next week as broad upper trough remains across the central/eastern
CONUS with at least low precip chances.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Light rain shield, associated with a weak surface boundary,
continues to dissipate as it pushes eastward across
Osage/Pawnee/Washington counties in OK this evening. Did throw in
a TEMPO group at BVO for light rain through about 07z. Otherwise,
sct-bkn mid/high level clouds will persist this
evening/overnight tonight and VFR should prevail at all TAF sites.

Low end precipitation/storm chances remain possible this afternoon
along a weak surface boundary that will become stationary near
the OK/KS/MO/AR borders by this afternoon. Maintained Prob30
groups at the far northwest AR terminals and added Prob30 groups
to the northeast OK terminals through the second half of the
forecast period. Light and variable winds prevail through early-
mid morning before predominately out of the south/southwest around
10 knots by late morning at most sites.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   98  79  99  71 /  20  20  30  50
FSM  101  80 100  76 /  10  10  20  50
MLC   99  79  98  72 /   0   0  20  50
BVO   93  73  96  65 /  30  30  40  40
FYV   97  75  97  69 /  20  10  30  60
BYV   97  75  97  69 /  40  30  30  60
MKO   98  78  98  71 /  10  10  20  60
MIO   94  74  96  67 /  40  40  40  60
F10   99  78  99  70 /  10  10  30  60
HHW   96  78  97  73 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053>059-063>065-068-069-073-075.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ049-053>076.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ060>062-066-067-070>072-074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...67