022
FXUS64 KTSA 012300
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
600 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

   - Daily isolated to widely scattered showers and storms
     possible the rest of this week with locally heavy rains,
     downburst winds, and lightning being the primary hazards.

   - Hot and humid conditions will return by the end of this week
     with heat indices generally 95-105 F across the area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 442 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

A weak surface ridge lies over the region, with ridging also
prevalent aloft currently. Storm activity over southern AR on a
weak front should stay to our east, while spotty showers and
isolated storms over west/central TX should stay to our west. The
end result is a quiet afternoon and evening across the region.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

More pleasant summer conditions persist this afternoon with
cooler temperatures (upper 80s) and resulting heat indices than
recently observed. Still expect much of the area to remain dry
this afternoon with post-frontal high pressure overhead. The only
exception may be near the Red River where a shower or two may
develop in the vicinity of the sfc boundary. Quiet conditions
continue into tonight with low temps falling into the mid to upper
60s for much of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

High pressure will shift eastward over the next couple days
allowing moisture to gradually return to the area. This introduces
a daily low potential for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow
onward. That being said, precip should remain fairly isolated and
most locations are expected to remain dry for at least the next
few days. Given the expectation for limited coverage, PoPs will
remain just below mentionable values Wednesday and Thursday.
Still, it is recommended to watch for changing weather conditions
over the coming days as storm chances are low, but not zero.

Flow aloft becomes increasingly oriented out of the west-
northwest this weekend and waves embedded within the flow may tend
to enhance shower/ storm chances for much of the area into early
next week. Severe potential still appears to remain limited at
this time, but any stronger storms that manage to develop would
likely have potential to produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty
winds given high PWATs. Those with outdoor interests over the
holiday weekend should continue to closely monitor the forecast
and be prepared to adjust plans accordingly if higher lightning or
severe threats develop.

Alongside the return of moisture this week will be a gradual
increase in temperatures and associated heat indices. By late
this week, most of the area is forecast to experience heat index
values between 90 to 100 degrees F... climbing back into the
95-105 F range over the weekend and into next week. Please be
extra mindful of time spent outdoors this holiday weekend and be
sure to hydrate and take breaks when needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

VFR conditions will prevail thru the period, mainly passing high
cloud and sct cu during the day. Sfc winds will remain blo
impactful levels. Storm chances/coverage on Wednesday expected to
be too low to mention in the TAFs.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  89  70  89 /   0  10   0  10
FSM   71  91  71  91 /   0  10   0  10
MLC   68  89  70  89 /   0  10   0  10
BVO   64  89  66  89 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   64  88  66  89 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   64  88  65  90 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   66  87  69  86 /   0  10   0  10
MIO   64  87  65  89 /   0   0   0  10
F10   66  86  69  86 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   71  90  73  89 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...30