364
FXUS64 KTSA 010511
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1111 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1105 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

 - Cold temperatures will persist through Tuesday morning.

 - Light mixed wintry precipitation is expected for some areas
   Monday. There is a low chance for minor impacts, mainly in the
   terrain of SE OK and NW AR.

 - Temperatures warm somewhat through Wednesday before another
   potent cold front arrives, which will bring precipitation back
   to the area. Wintry precipitation is a possibility.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1105 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

A cold and dry airmass is in place with northeasterly surface flow
across the forecast area. Forecast soundings show a shallow
saturated layer developing above the cold surface air, with much
of it in the 0 to -10C temperature range. This will support areas
of drizzle and freezing drizzle once the near surface air
saturates. The most likely area for freezing drizzle will be
higher terrain areas in southeast OK and northwest AR. But some
areas north of roughly I-40 may see freezing drizzle as well. With
a marginal cold enough airmass and light precipitation rates,
impacts should overall be quite minimal. Elected to not issue a
Winter Weather Advisory given low confidence, but may locally
issue later if confidence increases in any particular areas.

Temperatures will rise into the low to mid 30s north of I-40, with
mid to upper 30s to the south. A front will approach the area
during the evening. The mid level front will feature a narrow zone
of overlapping saturation and lift within the dendritic growth
zone. CAMs are picking up on a signal for a narrow and brief band
of snow as this mid level front passes by in the late afternoon
for northeast OK and late evening in northwest AR. Overall,
accumulation will be less than a half inch, and likely nothing for
most areas, but a few flakes in the air should not surprise
anybody out and about. Colder air will spill in for the overnight
hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 1105 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Tuesday morning will be quite cold, with lows in the teens to low
20s across the area. However, high pressure will be south of the
area by then, so warming southerly flow will kick temperatures back
into the 40s for the daytime hours. A few locations may be as warm
as 50 under mostly sunny skies. Breezy southerly winds will keep the
warming trend in place through the middle of the day Wednesday when
a descending cold front will send temperatures quickly downward once
again. Lows on Thursday morning will range from the low 20s in the
north to the low 30s in the south. wind chills will be even colder.
Cloudy conditions with continued cold advection will result in highs
struggling to break much above the mid 30s Thursday afternoon.

Late Thursday into Friday will feature our next chance of
precipitation as another semi cut off low to the west moves across
the area. These are notoriously difficult to forecast, so
naturally the guidance remains inconsistent. But in general, some
guidance is warmer (meaning slightly above freezing) and would
result in rain. Other guidance is too far south with the storm and
we remain dry. But some guidance allows the storm to be better
timed with the cold air and we see a threat of wintry
precipitation. With all of this said, the overall picture would
suggest that the chance of wintry precipitation is low for most of
the area, with the best signal near the KS border or the higher
terrain areas of northwest AR. Hopefully we will get a better
handle on things within a day or two, but for now odds favor
little to no impacts.

Conditions will warm up and dry out once again Friday afternoon into
Saturday, but ensemble guidance suggests another cold and dry front
around next Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Thick mid level cloud cover will continue over the region through
the overnight hours with a gradual lowering of cigs into lower VFR
range by the morning hours. Scattered very light freezing rain
showers/freezing drizzle should increase in coverage across E OK
overnight tonight and may occasionally mix with some sleet or
flurries. Low level dry air will ultimately keep much of this precip
from reaching the surface and low confidence in widespread coverage
and terminal impacts will preclude mention in the TAF for now.
Better wintry precip chances will increase during the day Monday,
but a complicated setup will cause for many precip types to be
possible throughout the day. Any precip across NE OK and NW AR sites
in the morning will most likely be FZRA or FZDZ mixed with some
sleet. Marginal surface temps near freezing and warming above during
the morning will cause a transition to mostly rain for a time,
before a band of snow moves through Ne OK and NW AR sites by late
afternoon early evening with the main upper wave. Overall coverage
of meaningful precipitation appears to be spotty with better coverage
further east and impacts should remain minimal during the period.
Cigs and vsby should generally remain VFR until late in the period
when some MVFR cigs build in across the north. Winds will stay
light, starting more easterly/northeasterly tonight and becoming
more northerly and northwesterly by Monday afternoon and evening.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  27  36  23 /   0  10  30  10
FSM   43  30  37  25 /   0  10  20  10
MLC   41  30  40  23 /   0  10  20  10
BVO   34  23  34  18 /   0  10  30   0
FYV   37  25  36  20 /   0  10  30  20
BYV   35  25  33  21 /   0  10  30  30
MKO   38  29  37  21 /   0  10  20  10
MIO   34  25  33  19 /   0  10  30  20
F10   39  29  37  20 /   0  10  20   0
HHW   44  32  38  24 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...04