Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
283 FXUS64 KTSA 140543 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1243 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1242 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 - Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry weather through much of the work week - Thunderstorm chances return late Friday and continue through Saturday before a cold front pushes east of the region by Sunday. Severe weather potential exists. && .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 The light showers that persisted through the day and into much of the early to mid evening across northeast Oklahoma have largely pushed northward into southern Kansas late this evening, signaling the end of the measurable rain for this event. Given the amount of moisture around, a low chance of fog development exists toward daybreak, with the best potential in parts of far northwest Arkansas along the Missouri border. With upper level ridging shifting westward, more solidly over the region, above normal temperatures and dry conditions will arrive for Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Unseasonably warm conditions and dry weather will prevail through much of this work week, only changing with the arrival of an upper level storm system Friday and into the weekend. Southerly low level winds will strengthen Friday and into Saturday, in advance of a cold front associated with the storm system. The NBM initialization typically struggles to capture the strength of the winds in similar situations, and as such, wind speeds and gusts have been adjusted upward using the NBMs 75th percentile for speeds and a blend of the NBM init and the 90th percentile for gusts. The strong southerly winds will lead to an increase in moisture that remains likely to be delayed until Friday night and into Saturday. Although there are some modest timing differences between the various model solutions, the most consistent scenario involves thunderstorms expanding in the vicinity of the front across northeast Oklahoma early Saturday morning along with a slow east-southeastward expansion through the day Saturday and a general decrease from west to east during the evening hours. Instability and wind fields remain forecast to be supportive of a severe weather threat across parts of the area, with details refined in the coming days. The front will pass through the region Saturday night and into early Sunday morning, leading to at least a brief period of cooler temperatures. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Expansive mid cloud coverage to result in VFR CIGS most sites until mid/late morning, with clouds gradually shifting north of the area by this afternoon. Light east to southeast wind today becoming light/ variable after 15/00z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 87 64 86 60 / 10 10 0 0 FSM 88 62 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 89 60 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 85 60 85 56 / 10 10 0 0 FYV 86 57 84 56 / 10 0 0 0 BYV 83 58 81 57 / 10 10 0 0 MKO 86 62 85 59 / 10 0 0 0 MIO 84 62 84 58 / 10 10 0 0 F10 88 61 86 57 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 86 60 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...69