043
FXUS64 KTSA 021116
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
616 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1147 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

 - Periods of showers and storms through Friday, especially
   across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

 - A cold frontal passage will bring more Fall-like temperatures
   into the weekend.

 - Pleasant weather is expected Sunday through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue to
develop across portions of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas
through the night as the upper trough axis moves through the
region. Meager instability and shear will keep away the threat of
any severe weather. The main impact through daybreak will be
locally heavy rainfall as deep moisture remains entrenched over
much of the Southern Plains. Upwards of an inch to two inches of
additional rainfall will be possible, especially across southeast
Oklahoma into west central Arkansas. Current surface analysis also
shows a cold front currently moving into northeast Oklahoma.
Showers and possibly a storm will be possible along the boundary
tonight into the early morning hours. Much of the rain begins to
exit the area during the afternoon hours Friday as the cold front
works its way south of the Red River by Friday evening.

The cold front will bring more Fall-like temperatures along with
gusty northerly winds, especially across northeast Oklahoma, on
Friday as highs stay in the lower 70s for most locations north of
I-40.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

The mid level trough will begin to shift east of the local region
by Friday evening, though the elongated trough axis will linger in
the vicinity through the day Saturday as another weak wave drop
southeast. This will be enough to spark more scattered showers and
possibly a thunderstorm, mainly south of I-40, through Saturday
afternoon. Rainfall amount will tend to be light overall with any
activity on Saturday as drier air begins to spill into the region.
A reinforcing cold front drops into the area on Sunday finally
clearing things out through Sunday afternoon. A modest Canadian
surface high will settle into the area through the early part of
next week, with some of the coolest overnight lows we have seen
since the Spring looking likely. Widespread lows in the 50s will
be common the first part of next week, while some of the normally
cooler locations across the north could dip into the upper 40s,
especially Tuesday morning.

Temperatures begin to steadily trend warmer through the latter
part of the week as mid level ridging builds back stronger over
the southwestern CONUS. Highs will climb back into the 80s
areawide while dry weather prevails through the back half of the
forecast period.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Extensive MVFR to locally, IFR conditions continue across the
area, with the lowest visibilities associated with on-station
heavy rain showers. FSM is seeing them currently, with FYV the
next most likely to see the heavier showers this morning. Reduced
ceilings will most likely continue through the entire period at
MLC/FSM/FYV, with a return to VFR conditions forecast late this
afternoon and evening at the other terminals. Low clouds should
expand northward again late tonight, with mainly MVFR ceilings
developing again after midnight. Expect gusty north winds today
following the frontal passage at the E OK sites that subside
toward sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  59  75  60 /  10  10  10   0
FSM   80  64  77  63 /  60  20  20  10
MLC   79  62  78  61 /  40  40  50  20
BVO   72  51  74  56 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   75  56  77  56 /  50  10  10  10
BYV   72  57  74  57 /  60  10  10   0
MKO   76  61  76  60 /  20  20  20  10
MIO   73  55  75  57 /  10   0   0   0
F10   74  59  74  58 /  20  20  40  10
HHW   80  64  77  63 /  60  40  40  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...22