526
FXUS64 KTSA 181107
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
607 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

 - Dangerous heat will persist through Tuesday in most areas, with
heat headlines required for many locations each day. Isolated
afternoon convection will be possible again today.

 - Shower and storm chances increase across mainly northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Tuesday, then spread south Tuesday
night and Wednesday as a cold front moves across the area. This cold
front will provide some relief from the heat for the middle to
latter part of the week through next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Hot and humid conditions will persist today, with afternoon high
temperatures once again climbing into the 98 to 102 degree range.
Heat index values will be similar to those observed Sunday,
generally in the 103 to 110 degree range, and the current heat
advisory will continue as is. Isolated afternoon convection is once
again expected, but overall coverage will likely again be sparse.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

The upper ridge that has been parked over our area for the past
several days will shift west Tuesday and Wednesday allowing a cold
front to drop south across the area. The latest data is trending
faster with the southward progression of this front, suggesting that
at least northern parts of the forecast area may see some relief
from the heat on Tuesday. Have lowered NBM temperatures slightly as
a result. Shower and storm chances will increase Tuesday, especially
across the north, with the higher chances spreading south Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Rain chances may continue in the south Thursday
as well, but the better chances will likely be shifting off to our
south by then. Lowered NBM temperatures slightly Wednesday and
Thursday as well given the trends in the model data.

A secondary push of cooler air may arrive next weekend as well
helping to keep temperatures below the seasonal averages for an
extended period of time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

VFR conditions will largely prevail for all terminals through the
forecast period. Isolated afternoon storms are expected again
today however chances remain too low to warrant mention.
Additional isolated to scattered storms may develop across NE OK
late tonight into early Tuesday. Should this scenario appear more
likely then thunderstorm mention may be needed for NE OK terminals
in later forecasts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   98  76  95  72 /  20  10  30  30
FSM  101  76  99  73 /  20  10  30  20
MLC   98  74  97  72 /  20  10  20  20
BVO   98  71  94  68 /  20  10  30  30
FYV   98  71  95  68 /  20  10  30  30
BYV   98  73  96  69 /  20  10  30  30
MKO   98  74  96  71 /  20  10  30  30
MIO   98  73  95  70 /  20  10  40  30
F10   98  73  96  70 /  20  10  30  30
HHW   98  73  97  72 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053>068-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ001-002-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...07