932
FXUS64 KTSA 190913
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
413 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

A few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm may affect
parts of northeast Oklahoma this morning, but most places will
remain dry. Unseasonably hot temperatures will prevail, with
afternoon highs in the 90s. Heat index values may briefly reach
near 105 in a few spots this afternoon, but the coverage and
duration of such values look limited enough to preclude any heat
headlines at this time.

At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by late
afternoon near and east of a weak surface trough across north
central Oklahoma, with these storms moving into parts of northeast
Oklahoma towards the end of the day. Damaging winds and marginally
severe hail will be possible with the strongest storms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Storm coverage remains uncertain into the evening hours, but at
least a few isolated storms are likely to continue for awhile and
propagate south before dissipating by late evening. Friday looks
like another unseasonably hot day, likely even hotter than today,
with afternoon heat index values again near 105 in some places.
Late afternoon and evening storm chances Friday remain low...below
mentionable levels...but non-zero.

Saturday will be another hot day, with low shower and storm
chances across northern parts of the area. Changes begin to take
place Sunday as an upper level storm system moves northeast into
the plains allowing a cold front to approach the area from the
west. Shower and storm chances will be greatest late Sunday into
Sunday night as this cold fromt moves across our area.

Much cooler weather will follow the passage of this front early
next week, with below normal temperatures at least for a couple
days. Low rain chances may return Tuesday night and Wednesday as a
shortwave moves across the area, but confidence in precipitation
during this time frame is low. Attention may also turn to the Gulf
of Mexico next week for the potential for tropical cyclone
development.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Scattered to broken mid/high clouds are expected overnight across
parts of Northeast Oklahoma into far Northwest Arkansas. Isolated
showers look to be part of this cloud cover. However...with
isolated coverage will keep a mention out of TAFs...though KBVO
would have the higher of the isolated potential late tonight/early
morning Thursday. Across the rest of the CWA tonight...mostly
clear to scattered high clouds are forecast. During the day
Thursday...scattered to broken mid and high clouds should become
common over most of the CWA. Thunderstorm chances increase during
the afternoon into evening hours...with the greater potential
across Northeast Oklahoma. Thus...will add Prob30 groups for
timing at KBVO/KTUL/KRVS. By mid evening...much of the
thunderstorm development is forecast to weaken with scattered to
broken high clouds remaining overnight over the CWA. Winds through
the period start out between east and southerly and become breezy
out of the south during the day Thursday. These winds should
weaken Thursday evening. VFR conditions outside of any
thunderstorm activity are currently forecast for the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  74  99  77 /  20  20  10  10
FSM   94  74  96  75 /  10  20  10   0
MLC   96  74  99  74 /  10  20  10   0
BVO   97  69  99  72 /  20  20  10  10
FYV   91  70  94  70 /  10  20  10  10
BYV   92  71  95  72 /  10  20  10  10
MKO   94  73  97  74 /  10  20  10   0
MIO   94  71  96  74 /  20  20  10  10
F10   96  73  99  74 /  10  20  10   0
HHW   95  71  98  72 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20