Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
388 FXUS64 KTSA 141714 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1214 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1214 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 - Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry weather through much of the work week - Thunderstorm chances return late Friday and continue through Saturday before a cold front pushes east of the region by Sunday. Severe weather potential exists. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 While it was quite a bit cooler across NE OK and into NW AR yesterday, temperatures really only fell back to near average for this time of year. Upper level ridging will intensify over the region again today, allowing temperatures to return back to well above average areawide (generally mid-upper 80s). Lingering cloud cover will tend to retreat northward, allowing for mostly clear skies and dry conditions this afternoon through tonight. Winds remain light out of the SSE through tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Warm and dry conditions will persist for much of the week under the influence of upper ridging, with highs remaining in the 80s through Friday (+10 to 15 deg above average). By late week, the ridge begins to weaken as the western trough begins to impinge on the Plains states. As this occurs, low level winds will strengthen out of the south, becoming gusty on Friday afternoon. This southerly flow will eventually transport better moisture back north into the CWA, but a period of limited fire weather concerns could develop Friday afternoon prior to its arrival... mainly for portions of NE OK. As with the previous forecast, winds and gusts have been increased some from the NBM on Friday which paints a broad area of 10-20 mph, gusting 20-30 mph. As aforementioned troughing ejects off the Rockies, a SW-NE oriented cold front will surge southward Friday night and Saturday. With better moisture in place by this point, showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across much of the FA. While the fine details remain to be seen at this range, the environment does appear to be supportive of severe weather Saturday, possibly including tornado potential. With that said, precipitation coverage Saturday morning could be a limiting factor and will need to be considered for severe potential later in the day. The front and associated precip exits the area Saturday night with more seasonally- appropriate temperatures filling in behind it for Sunday. Going into next week, a more active pattern takes shape with potential for another storm system and temperature swings through mid week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Clear skies and VFR conditions will dominate the period with generally light easterly to southerly winds throughout the region. Very patchy fog could develop late tonight, mainly near lakes or other bodies of water. Chances are too low to mention at any TAF sites at this time. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 64 85 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 62 86 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 60 88 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 58 85 56 83 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 56 84 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 59 81 57 80 / 0 10 0 0 MKO 60 85 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 61 85 59 83 / 10 10 0 0 F10 61 85 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 60 85 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...43 LONG TERM....43 AVIATION...04