297
FXUS64 KTSA 041129
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
629 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 345 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

  - Strong/severe storms possible early this morning and becoming
    more likely this afternoon, especially from southeast Oklahoma
    into western Arkansas.

  - High rain chances continue through Saturday, with heavy rain
    and flood potential increasing across southeast Oklahoma and
    western Arkansas.

  - Much cooler weather arrives this weekend, with rain possibly
    changing to snow late Saturday night into Sunday morning north
    of Interstate 40. A freeze is expected in some places Monday
    morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will overspread the area
early this morning, with the potential for large hail with the
strongest storms. A second round of showers and storms is expected
this afternoon, with the strongest storms at that time from far
southeast and eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. The stalled
frontal boundary just southeast of the area at this time may lift
a bit north ahead of this second round of storms, and any
locations that end up south of the boundary will have an all
hazard severe threat, with large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes all possible with this second round of storms.

Heavy rainfall will also be a concern, especially from southeast
Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas, where a flood watch remains in
effect.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

A relative lull in precipitation coverage and intensity is
expected for much of tonight before the next round of showers,
storms, and heavy rainfall moves in late tonight and early
Saturday morning. The severe weather threat will likely be a bit
lower by this time as the frontal boundary will have sagged
farther southeast overnight. Once again the heaviest rainfall will
be from southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas with this round
of precipitation.

As the main upper system moves across late Saturday night and
early Sunday morning  rain may mix with or change to snow across
parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. With surface
temperatures likely to remain several degrees above freezing,
little or no snow accumulation is expected. With skies clearing by
Sunday night, some places will fall to near or below freezing by
early Monday morning.

An extended period of quiet weather is then expected next week,
with temperatures warming back above normal for much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

IFR to LIFR conditions expected through the period for all sites.
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. These storms may be severe and
produce large hail and strong, erratic wind gusts. Additionally,
very heavy rainfall will significantly lower vsbys down to a mile
or less during the strongest storms. IFR to LIFR cigs will likely
continue through the forecast period areawide with additional
showers and thunderstorms likely this afternoon and evening,
especially across NW AR sites. Thunderstorm activity appears to be
strongest/ most widespread through 16z and again 20-03z. A lull
in precip can be expected during the late evening and early
overnight before additional rain moves north into the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  46  49  35 / 100  60 100  80
FSM   68  53  55  40 / 100  90 100  80
MLC   60  48  52  38 / 100  90 100  80
BVO   54  44  49  35 / 100  50  90  70
FYV   65  47  50  36 / 100  90 100  80
BYV   63  47  49  35 / 100  90 100  80
MKO   59  48  51  36 / 100  80 100  80
MIO   55  45  47  35 / 100  70 100  70
F10   56  47  50  35 / 100  80 100  80
HHW   68  52  55  40 /  90 100 100  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ049-053-063-068>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...43