697
FXUS64 KTSA 300740
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
240 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

This mornings GOES-16 satellite fog product imagery shows patchy
stratus/fog beginning to develop across far northwest AR. Still
anticipating patchy dense fog to develop a couple of hours before
sunrise this morning across portions of far northwestern AR. Any
fog that develops will likely erode by 8 or 9 am. A Dense Fog
Advisory remains in effect for Benton, Carroll, Washington and
Madison counties between 4 am and 9 am.

The main storyline for today will be the unseasonably hot
temperatures across the entire forecast area. Cloud cover this
afternoon will be minimal, with the exception of a few to
scattered cumulus that develops across far eastern OK and
northwest AR. Additionally, winds will be very light and variable
(nearly calm) through the day, allowing temperatures to soar into
the upper 80s and lower 90s (about 8-10 degrees above seasonal
averages) in most spots. Given yesterday`s observed high
temperatures, leaned toward a mixture of NBMs 75th and 90th
percentiles for forecast high temperatures this afternoon.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

A weak and dry cold front remains on course to move through the
forecast area from northwest to southeast beginning early Tuesday
morning. A noticeable drop in dewpoint temperatures/relative
humidity will occur following the frontal boundary as well as an
increase in northerly winds. Gusts between 20 and 30 mph are
likely, with the strongest gusts around 35 mph mainly along and
north of I-44 through early afternoon Tuesday. The combination of
the strong northerly winds and substantially lower dewpoint
temperatures will lead to an increase in the fire spread
potential, especially across northeast OK where wind speeds will
be breeziest. Wind speeds/gusts will gradually lower by sunset.
Something to note, there is still some uncertainty how the
strength of the front will progress through the day and just how
far south it will be able to push. A couple of deterministic
models show it slowing down and becoming more diffused south of
I-40, evident in looking at surface theta-e. For now, have the
front moving through all of the forecast area and south of the
Red River by sunset Tuesday evening.

Effects of Tuesdays front will be short-lived as surface high
pressure slides east of the area late Tuesday night and southerly
winds return by Wednesday morning. This will result in
unseasonably warm temperatures returning Wednesday afternoon and
persisting into Thursday afternoon, where widespread highs in the
upper 80s and lower 90s are forecast to occur. Furthermore, breezy
S/SW winds may cause another uptick in fire weather concerns again
Thursday afternoon for portions of northeast OK.

Forecast confidence really lowers for Friday and the upcoming
weekend with several discrepancies in long-range global models and
ensembles. A few model members indicate another cold front may
penetrate portions of the northern part of the forecast area on
Friday (before lifting northward on Saturday) while others
indicate no mesoscale features coming near the area until beyond
the long-term period. Regardless, there is consensus in long-
range data that strongly suggest mostly uneventful, unseasonably
warm and dry weather will persist through the tail-end of the
forecast period. Opted to populate days 5-7 with the operational
NBM solution.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Fog potential will increase at the northwest Arkansas sites
through the early morning hours, and may become dense in spots.
After the fog burns off around mid morning, VFR conditions will
prevail at all sites with light winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  62  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   90  65  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   91  61  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   91  57  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   88  59  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   85  59  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   89  62  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   88  60  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
F10   90  60  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   91  62  90  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ARZ001-002-
     010-011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...05