759
FXUS64 KTSA 302329
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
629 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

   - Scattered showers and thunderstorms today as a weak cold
     front moves into the area, with a limited severe weather
     threat. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.

   - Daily isolated to widely scattered showers and storms
     expected much of the rest of this week with locally heavy
     rains, downburst winds, and lightning being the primary
     hazards.

   - Hot and humid conditions will continue for most of this week
     with heat indices generally 95-103 F across the area. Some
     minor relief will briefly occur on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 248 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Low to medium shower and storm potential will persist into this
evening as a weak cold front moves through the region. Any ongoing
storms will become increasingly restricted to southern portions of
the forecast area before weakening tonight. Primary hazards will
continue to be damaging wind gusts, large hail, and heavy rain
leading to flash flooding. Consistent with the HREF, most precip is
expected to have dissipated or exited the forecast area overnight
with gradually clearing skies. Following the front, low temps
will likely be a few degrees cooler than previous nights...
especially for northern portions of the area... generally in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

The post-frontal airmass will influence temperatures and heat
indices Tuesday and Wednesday, with dewpoints falling into the 60s.
Resulting high temperatures and associated heat indices may struggle
to exceed 90 degrees tomorrow for much of NE OK and NW AR. There
won`t be quite as much relief in SE OK and W-Central AR though,
where the HIs could still climb into the mid to upper 90s. There may
be a few showers or isolated storms tomorrow, mainly across SE OK or
W-Central AR, but most locations are likely to stay dry under high
pressure. As the sfc high shifts east Wednesday, southerly flow will
begin to return to the region, providing increasing temps and
moisture through the end of the week. This will keep daily PoPs in
the forecast through the extended period, but with the expectation
that most locations stay dry on any given day through Friday. Heat
indices will also climb back into the 95-105F range as we head into
the holiday weekend.

By Saturday, an upper trough is projected to be moving off of the
Rockies and into the plains states, though there is disagreement
regarding how this will influence rain potential for our area. For
now, NBM PoPs seem reasonable with slight chance to chance category
for much of NE OK and NW AR. The pattern appears to remain unsettled
into early next week with additional rain and storm chances.
Precipitation may could impact temperatures this weekend into next
week, primarily if the wetter scenario plays out. But overall,
expect high in the 90s to persist with heat indices generally
remaining in the upper 90s/ lower 100s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Thunderstorms have developed across sern OK along/near remnant
outflow boundary this evening, some of which is in the vicinity of
MLC. Activity expected to continue to drift slowly E/ESE through the
evening. Most likely convective impacts to MLC in the next couple
hours, with decreasing potential by late evening, as the activity
drifts away from the terminal. Very low potential of any of this
developing as far north as FSM. Guidance continues to suggest some
low cloud/fog potential nwrn AR sites late tonight/early Tuesday
morning, otherwise VFR with a light north wind across the area on
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  88  68  91 /  10   0   0  20
FSM   73  92  72  93 /  30  20   0  30
MLC   71  90  69  92 /  50  10  10  20
BVO   67  88  64  89 /  10   0   0  20
FYV   69  88  65  89 /  20  10   0  20
BYV   69  87  64  89 /  20  10   0  10
MKO   71  88  68  89 /  20  10   0  30
MIO   69  86  65  88 /  10   0   0  20
F10   70  88  68  90 /  30  10  10  30
HHW   72  91  72  92 /  40  20   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...69